Listen: The final Queen of the Skies emerges while Airbus improves the A350F

Andrew Crider
Hello, and welcome to this episode of cargo facts connect the podcast of cargo facts, the newsletter of record for the air cargo and freighter aircraft industries for over 40 years. I’m your host Andrew Crider, associate editor of cargo facts.

Robert Luke
And I’m Robert Luke, associate editor of cargo facts.

Jeff Lee
And I’m Jeff Lee, editor of cargo facts.

Andrew Crider
I want to begin today with a history breaking rollout. The last factory built 747 Dash eight F is heading for delivery towards Atlas air. Now we know that that delivery will officially take place sometime in early 2023. But it’s leaving a big hole in not only Boeing’s Everett factory, but as well as a big hole in future aircraft demand. I want to turn to associate editor Robert Luke and editor Jeff Lee, you guys covered this rollout quite extensively earlier this week. And what does it mean for the future of the freighter market? Robert?

Robert Luke
Thank you, Andrew. It’s a major transition obviously, for a lot of reasons from the going green initiative and reducing emissions to more fuel efficiency while still maintaining a same level of operational capacity with the twin engine wide body freighters that are going to be the replacement breeders for this legend that is going to be on its last production mile as we’ve noticed earlier. I do think that typically nothing’s ever going to replace the quad engine freighters for just the overall bulk capabilities and carrying capabilities. But as we talked about on our podcast last Friday, you know, this is bringing in a new dynamic where these twin engine wide body freighters will be able to specifically customize their strategies, the strategies and operational formats of operators individually versus following the traditional hub and spoke system. You know, granted that the 747, especially the eight F models will at least continue to operate for the foreseeable next 20 years, the landscape of the wide variety segment will be predominantly controlled by triple sevens in a 350s. So it’s definitely going to make a change to the landscape that’s going to not only cause a shift in operational needs of each each operator and carrier. But it’s also going to kind of change demand more or less, because with less capacity, there’s going to have to be more frequency. So we have to kind of see how that plays out. But we’re definitely going to have a void here as the quad engine Queen of the Skies will at some point in the near future no longer operate, or we will not continue to see the run as this 50 year production run comes to a halt. Jeff, what are your thoughts?

Jeff Lee
Well, I mean, we knew this moment was was coming, right. I mean, we know that the line was coming to an end and, and all that and who the the final units were going to but I guess it’s symbolic in a way because now it has actually happened and the factory now is what has pushed out its final unit. And we’ll see this aircraft progressed through the usual process of you know, tests and paint and all that. But that Yeah, so the final delivery is coming up very soon. But it is interesting and as you say there is no full one to one replacement of the 747 Dash eight. But, you know, the reality is that in the large wide body freezer space it now you know the 350 fighter the triple seven dash eight, the triple seven conversions, and to some degree, the current generation triple seven F. And so we thought that we would take this opportunity to basically look at which carriers currently operate older, the older generation of 747. So that doesn’t include the dash eight, the two hundreds, three hundreds and four hundreds and just see which which of these carriers haven’t, to our knowledge committed to any of the newer types. It’s not a very long list, but this list is interesting. So you have some major combination carriers like cathay and Korean. Yeah, so and then, you know you also have some smaller players like air AirACT and Geo sky A particularly and those are interesting because they’ve some of these have the older 200s as well. But, you know, some of these, we would definitely not be surprised to see ordering the new a triple seven dash eight or the 350. And, in fact, we know that cathay is close to either making a decision or close to announcing its decision. Same thing with Asiana. And that that is interesting, because they’re still going through their integration with Korean Han, we’re not exactly sure how that will affect the the freighter the combined freighter fleet. But what we also think is that, as some of these major carriers order, the newer types, there will be sort of a cascading effect of their four hundreds kind of moving away and being picked up by other carriers.

Robert Luke
Such as mentioned, yeah,

Jeff Lee
So we there’s gonna be a lot of change happening in the large wide body freedom free to segment in the next five or five, six years. And you just have to wonder when we’re going to see more of these orders taking place. And I think we will see more in the year ahead.

Robert Luke
I’m going to interject here. And I’m going to present this question to both Andrew and, Jeff, let’s put the scenario here and look at it from the most extreme angle. Could there be a slight chance that the industry realizes, and maybe even Boeing realizes that they should have never terminated the 747 Freedom program? Andrew, I want you to go first on that thought, What do you think?

Andrew Crider
I’m not sure if that would translate for the 747. Exactly. But something that’s drawn my eye is, perhaps is a little too soon to say. But the relative success of airbus commercialization of its beluga freighters, there seems to be plenty of appetite for the ultra size capacity. And I don’t want to put the cart ahead of the horse. Because I wanted to bring up Jeff, you had an exclusive news item earlier about a next generation freighter option, trying to squeeze every inch out of its frame, by an enlargement of its a door past what was previously built for it.

Jeff Lee
Yeah, so this is a very interesting development. And it’s it’s, you know, shows Airbus is very receptive to making changes so that it makes its A350 freighter even more competitive. And so what they told me was that they, they had been talking to the customers, you know, for a while and so they had kind of this plan for a larger door. Basically, just, they had it all along, they were just kind of waiting for the new production standard on all A350s to be able to get the green light to go ahead with this new door design because partly because of the weight savings from the new production standard, which that was recently delivered. And so yeah, I mean, it’s interesting, because now the 350 F is going to have the widest and this is currently true and I’m not sure whether Boeing will want will be is planning something or want to do something about it. But right now, as it stands Airbus the A350 will have the widest cargo door and yes, it’s still not going to be the you know the nose door that the seven four seven production 747 has but it has to be said that we’ve we’ve talked to many of these 747 operators and they the use of that nose loading capability is important but they’re not using it on every single flight. So, they will have to just accept that the these these newer freighters won’t have that but in the meantime, you know, Airbus is making the door wider so that it would be easier to load some of these larger pallets, outsize items.

Robert Luke
And in addition to that, just sorry to interject here, the nose loader adds another 22,000 pounds of weight on on the 747. So that reduces his carrying capacity as well. And so I think that also plays a key factor into Airbus’s approach to just widening the door maybe, maybe not, but I do know from talking to various engineers and pilots that fly the seven, four, that was definitely something that was recognized early on.

Jeff Lee
Yeah, that’s a good point. And actually, the so this larger, slightly wider door, is not going to have an effect on the payload. Partly because of the weight savings. But it’s, yeah, I mean, it makes the A350. A much more compelling product. And, as we were saying last week, the it doesn’t entirely overlap with the triple seven dash eight, F. And so we Yeah, we’re looking forward to seeing who will pick the 350. And going back to the 747. Discussion. It is interesting that only so far, there haven’t been that many 747 operators that have committed to any of these newer types, specifically. And as we said, there, you know, only Singapore Airlines cargolux, and silk way have decided to order one of these types, to replace the seven four sevens. And so we will be seeing more of those in the year ahead.

Robert Luke
And to add to that, you know, I think another point that, you know, is at least up for discussion is, you know, with with the seven, four, you don’t need ETOPS, you’ve got four engines, you have free rein to go as far as that airplane will travel with the twin engine wide bodies, as we all know, ETOPS is required before, you know, you can engage in over overseas flights, and you only have 90 to 180 minutes range of distance capability when you have ETOPS certification. You know, there’s pros and cons to both sides with the seven, four, you can just go you don’t have to get the certifications. And you don’t have to incur the expenses that are required to do that. However, the trade off is the fuel burn, you pay more with that. And also, with most, you know, most of the global economy transitioning to more fuel efficient approaches to bringing the green the goal green energy approach to our society that we live in. That’s definitely a red flag. And definitely not such an angle that most want to pursue. But it is definitely if you look at the expenses, there’s trade offs, some will some will say it’s cheaper to operate the four engines seven four and some say it’s more economical to operate this one engine with ETOPS. You know, so I mean, that’s, that’s another argument for discussion at a later point in time. But those are just some key things to keep in mind. And that may have an impact on why some of these current 747 operators are hesitant to make make a firm decision on their next aircraft to replace the existing 747 fleet they currently have.

Jeff Lee
Well, I mean, I think also there are, I think there are actually higher ETOPS ratings now that go up upwards of 200 minutes, and even more, but know that there is a valid point there. And I think when you were saying whether Boeing made the right decision to end 747 I think when they were doing that, market conditions were very different from now. And, you know, they even asked major operators like Cargolux and UPS whether they they wanted more, and the answer back then was no. So they weren’t just going to speculatively keep the line open. Yeah, market conditions change. And we also reported earlier this year that ups which previously said no to Boeing, look looks like they might be looking at picking up at least two second hand used dash eights from somewhere. So, you know, these things change and it’s it is interesting to see these, these developments and these, what these carriers are thinking.

Robert Luke
Agreed. I do agree. And it was interesting. I think we wrote on that article not too long ago. Regarding UPS how Having the two options that they’re looking to exercise, although we don’t know where they would actually secure those assets from, it’ll be interesting to see if they end up finally getting those and where they acquire them from.

Jeff Lee
Right. And, yeah, apart from those, we now know there are a whole bunch of seven four used seven four sevens. And we are seeing people becoming interested in them and picking them up. So yeah, there aren’t there won’t be any more new 747 dash eights, but in the meantime, they will certainly continue. We’ll see them flying for many, many years to come, but also we’ll kind of continue to see these transactions. These these queens, changing hands.

Andrew Crider
I was waiting all podcast to mention White Walker enterprises and their game of thrones 747 classic activations. But on that note, it’s time for us to end. For those of you listening I want to say thank you. For more multimedia coverage like this. Search cargo facts connect on iTunes and Spotify and search cargo facts.com. Thank you very much for tuning in. Join us again next time