Airbus, in its newly released Global Market Forecast 2010-2029, predicts that the global freighter fleet will grow from 1,550 units in 2009 to 3,350 units in 2029. Overall, Airbus predicts that there will be demand for 2,960 freighters (payload over 20 tonnes) to enter the fleet through 2029. As shown in the chart at below, this total is comprised of 670 in the small jet category, 1,380 in the regional and long-range category and 910 in the large category. Roughly 70% (2,090) are forecast to be converted units, versus 30% (870) that will be new-build freighters.
Airbus’ predictions for fleet growth are based on forecasted growth of 4.8% per year in passenger demand and 5.9% per year in freight demand.
Airbus defines its freighter categories as follows:
Small Jet Freighters: 727, 737, A320, BAe 146, DC-9, Tu-204
Regional & Long Range: 707, 757, 767-200, A300, A310, A321, DC-8, DC-10-10, A330
Large Freighters: 747, 777, A350, MD-11, A380
Airbus foresees the world’s fleet of passenger aircraft (over 100 seats) will double to 29,050 in 2029, up from 14,240 in 2009. Taking into account retirements, there will be demand for roughly 25,000 passenger aircraft over the twenty-year period.
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