WorldACD sees ‘glimmers of hope’ for 2016

As 2015 draws to a close, WorldACD said that, in spite of its weak performance in recent months, the air cargo market wasn’t all that bad this year, thanks in part to China and Hong Kong. Together they account for almost 30 percent of worldwide revenue – a very solid share of the market.

November 2015, however,  was not a good month for air cargo, no matter which way one viewed it. For the first time in two-and-a-half years, monthly volume dropped, year-over-year, by 0.9 percent. U.S. dollar yields improved for the third month in a row, but the 1 percent increase was smaller than the usual yield improvement from October to November. Additionally, November was weaker than October for the first time since 2011, which seems odd given that peak season often begins in November.

The WorldACD report also said that September through November 2015 produced year-over-year volume growth of only 1 percent worldwide, well below the y-o-y increase of 2.6 percent in the period leading up to August 2015.

Exports from China and Hong Kong had been below previous year’s volumes for a good part of 2015, but the pattern reversed itself over the waning months of the year. Exports to North America performed well since early 2015 and continued that trend through the year’s end. Yields for the origin Asia-Pacific between August and November rose 10 percent to North American and 17 percent to Europe.

Volumes were down 4 percent, y-o-y, in November for intra-Asia Pacific cargo, however, and by 1.3 percent from September to November. Africa and Europe both saw volume increases of 4 percent since August, while the Middle East and South Asia (MESA) region enjoyed 2 percent growth – all of which were above-average figures. Volumes from the Americas contracted compared to 2014, but in Central and South America, yields grew 13 percent between August and November.

Carriers from North America contracted 3 percent, y-o-y, in volume, on average, in the September-through-November period. However, carriers from the Asia-Pacific and Europe regions barely grew at all. African carriers grew by 2 percent in volume, while the Middle East carriers grew a healthy 7 percent.

Pharmaceuticals and perishables continued to show strength from September to November, with y-o-y volume growth of 10.5 percent and 4 percent, respectively.