IATA laments ‘disappointingly’ slow growth in SAF

Between 3,000 and more than 6,500 new renewable fuel plants need to be built to enable aviation to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, according to an IATA estimate. The cost to build these facilities over the next thirty years is $128 billion per year — in a best-case scenario, IATA said in a statement last week. That’s less than half the estimated $280 billion annual investment in the solar and wind energy markets between 2004 and 2022. [caption id="attachment_57145756" align="aligncenter" width="1022"] CleanJoule is one SAF producer, headquartered in Salt Lake City. (Courtesy/CleanJoule)[/caption] New plants would produce sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and renewable fuel for other industries as well. The number of needed plants was estimated based on the volume of SAF needed by 2050. Slow growth in SAF production SAF production volumes in 2024 reached 1.3 billion liters, double the 600 million liters produced in 2023, according to IATA. SAF accounted for 0.3% of global jet fuel production and 11% of global renewable fuel, IATA said. Production of SAF is expected to reach 2.1 million tonnes in 2025, or 0.7% of total jet fuel production and 13% of global renewable fuel capacity. “SAF volumes are increasing, but disappointingly slowly.” — Willie Walsh, IATA director general SAF is widely regarded as the best path to the goal set by IATA to achieve net-zero carbon emissions in the aviation industry by 2050. Despite SAF production doubling in 2024, that remains less than 1% of the world’s need. To meet net-zero targets with SAF alone, 450 billion liters will be needed by 2050, TIACA previously told Cargo Facts . Delays in SAF production, according to IATA Director General Willie Walsh, are attributable to: Hesitation from investors; and Mixed signals from governments to oil companies that continue to receive subsidies to produce fossil fuels. Walsh called last week for governments to deliver policy incentives for producing renewable energy and to reduce support for fossil fuel production. “A good portion of the needed funding could be realized by redirecting a portion of the retrograde subsidies that governments give to the fossil fuel industry,” he said. Short-term measures SAF production could be accelerated, according to IATA, by: Increasing co-processing. Existing refineries could co-process up to 5% of approved renewable feedstocks alongside crude oil streams. This solution could be implemented quickly and requires minimal material investment, IATA said. Co-processing could save $347 billion in CapEx by 2050 as more than 260 new renewable fuel plants would not need to be built. Diversifying SAF production. Despite there being eleven certified pathways to make SAF , the hydrotreated esters fatty acids, or HEFA, method is forecast to account for around 80% of production in the next five years. SAF volumes could be boosted by increasing investments in other certified pathways. Creating a global SAF accounting framework . A registry that allows airlines to benefit from making SAF purchases and be transparent would serve as an incentive. IATA’s efforts to increase SAF use IATA announced plans in September to create a SAF Matchmaker platform to connect carriers and SAF suppliers. It aims to launch the platform in the first quarter of 2025, IATA told Cargo Facts . Additionally, IATA is working to improve the accuracy of its IATA CO2 Connect tool to calculate carbon emissions and plans to launch IATA CO2 Connect for Cargo in Q1 2025. IATA is working with the Amsterdam-based nonprofit organization Smart Freight Centre to develop the service. Microsoft is providing technical guidance and becoming a pilot tester. Unlike IATA CO2 Connect, which launched in June 2022, IATA CO2 Connect for Cargo will provide CO2 emissions calculations per shipment. IATA told Cargo Facts that the calculator will also be able to provide output metrics such as: Well-to-wheel; Carbon dioxide equivalent ; and CO2 per tonne kilometer. Register now for Cargo Facts' essential regional events for industry stakeholders: Cargo Facts LATAM 2025 on Feb. 10-11 at the Pullman Sao Paulo Guarulhos Airport in Brazil; Cargo Facts Asia 2025 on March 24-26 at the W Shanghai in China; and Cargo Facts EMEA 2025 on May 6-8 at the Shangri-La Bosphorus in Turkey.

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