Freighter capacity shortage to shape cargo carriers’ network strategy

Air cargo route networks will be shaped in the coming years by the freighter capacity shortage, e-commerce growth, and innovations in sustainability and digitalization. Panelists on the webinar “Air cargo route networks: Strategies for improved results and greater efficiencies,” presented today by Cargo Facts , agreed that the air cargo industry is by nature always in flux. [caption id="attachment_57291685" align="aligncenter" width="1206"] Cargo Facts Deputy Editor Yael Katzwer, top left, moderates a webinar about route development with panelists Oguzhan Cerrah, of Turkish Airlines, top right, and Nadeem Sultan, of Emirates SkyCargo, bottom. (Cargo Facts)[/caption] View the webinar on-demand here. “We don't have the luxury of producing two schedules a year, a summer and a winter,” Nadeem Sultan, senior vice president of freighters and cargo planning at Emirates SkyCargo, said on the webinar. “We probably do one every month because things are just so volatile and, especially this year, as we've seen with the global geopolitics and especially the trade and tariff disruptions.” These factors have “literally required many airlines to, almost every month, sit around the table and reassess and potentially redesign a network based on these changes,” Sultan said. Shortage of freighter capacity The remaining production 777Fs on order from Boeing are due to be produced by the end of 2027, Sultan said. Boeing had fifty-nine unfilled 777F orders as of its Aug. 31 orders and deliveries report. Ten of those are for Emirates. This has airlines looking to conversions, Sultan said. IAI obtained certification this month from the FAA and the Civil Aviation Authority of Israel for its 777-300ERSF program , making it the first 777 freighter conversion project to receive an STC. Emirates previously told Cargo Facts that it would look to induct its first of ten 777-300ERSF conversions with IAI after program certification. Additionally, Airbus will soon begin final assembly of the first A350F fuselage in Toulouse (TLS) and aims to deliver its first A350F to CMA CGM in the second half of 2027 . And Boeing marked the start of the prototype 777-8F’s production in July with the drilling of the first hole in the first wing spar in Everett, Wash. Entry into service for the 777-8F is slated for 2028 . “I expect over the coming two, three, four years that there will be a shortage of freighter capacity, and that shortage will also drive network adjustments at airlines around the world as lack of freighter capacity will require a rethink in terms of prioritization,” Sultan said. “I think the lack of potential freighter capacity in the coming years ahead will drive network changes at airlines.” — Nadeem Sultan, senior vice president of freighters and cargo planning at Emirates SkyCargo E-commerce E-commerce will also shape the future of air cargo routes, Oguzhan Cerrah, vice president of cargo network planning and development at Turkish Airlines, said on the webinar. With recent tariffs and changes in global politics, Cerrah said he expects to see an increase in regionalization. “The flow of e-commerce is defining air cargo routes,” Cerrah said. “The nearshoring is a trend in the trade routes, so regional air cargo demand will also be more [compelling] in the future.” Innovation The industry has been accelerating its digitalization efforts and increasingly embracing AI to automate booking and other repetitive tasks, Cerrah said. “The companies digitalizing faster will have the competitive advantage.” — Oguzhan Cerrah, vice president of cargo network planning and development at Turkish Airlines The aviation industry is also increasingly looking to implement more sustainable practices, especially to meet evolving industry standards and government regulations. Many airlines have begun using sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) blends; however, current SAF supply cannot meet the levels required for the industry to reach net zero by 2050, and SAF remains two to three times more expensive than traditional jet fuel. “Turkish Airlines has started to integrate sustainable aviation fuel into our network, especially after 2030s,” Cerrah said. “When the technology develops and we can produce it more efficiently, it will be a huge topic for air cargo.” Cargo Facts Symposium, the quintessential event for stakeholders and key leaders in the global freighter and air cargo industries, will take place Oct. 22-24 at the Grand Hyatt in Nashville . Learn more and register today to attend this key industry event.

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