Air cargo volume growth slows as industry enters Q4

Cargo volumes and capacity in September each grew 3% year over year, showing a slowdown from previous months as the air cargo industry heads into what traditionally has been the start of peak season. July and August each saw 5% YoY growth in volume , according to an Oct. 2 report released by ocean and airfreight rate analytics platform Xeneta. “Over the previous two months we’ve seen how air cargo has gained from ‘piggybacking’ on global uncertainty, whether that’s frontloading supply chains or modal shift from ocean to air to move goods more quickly before tariffs took hold,” Xeneta Chief Airfreight Officer Niall van de Wouw said in the release. September data indicates that stability is returning on major corridors and “everything is less hectic on a global level,” he said. [caption id="attachment_57292138" align="aligncenter" width="1920"] (Courtesy/Xeneta)[/caption] Spot rates continue to fall In pace with constrained volume growth, air cargo spot rates declined YoY for a fifth consecutive month in September, falling 4% to a global average of $2.54 per kilogram. “Much of the downward pressure came from muted activity on trans-Atlantic and trans-Pacific routes, where repeated extensions of U.S. tariff deadlines appear to have pulled forward volumes into the summer months,” Xeneta reported. The United States implemented global reciprocal tariffs Aug. 7. The U.S. and China are still negotiating tariffs, with the truce set to end Nov. 10 . Chinese e-commerce exports to the United States fell for the fourth consecutive month in August, driven by the U.S. ending de minimis exemptions for China on May 2. Sales of low-value and e-commerce goods fell 38% YoY, according to the latest China Customs’ data. [caption id="attachment_57292137" align="aligncenter" width="1920"] (Courtesy/Xeneta)[/caption] A predicted 20% reduction in trans-Atlantic capacity in late October at the start of airlines’ winter schedules, when passenger belly capacity shrinks, is expected to reverse freight rate declines, according to Xeneta. However, this is “a consequence of supply, not demand,” van de Wouw said. E-commerce trade lanes shift to Europe The United States’ reciprocal tariffs and global cessation of de minimis exemptions on Aug. 29 have led Chinese e-commerce companies to shift their focus from U.S. customers to European customers. Volumes rose 4% on the Asia-Europe corridor in the first three weeks of September compared to the previous month. Traffic was also supported by the pre-Golden Week cargo rush. China’s Golden Week, which this year runs Oct. 1-8, encompasses several East Asian holidays and is a time when nearly all factories in China are closed. This creates a quiet week for freight; however, shippers often see a pre-Golden Week rush in September. Year-to-date, cross-border e-commerce and low-value goods sales to Europe from China have increased 58% YoY, with August up 55% YoY, according to China Customs. Van de Wouw called it astonishing how quickly China’s e-commerce giants have been able to pivot toward Europe, the Xeneta release said. Outlook Market growth is expected to continue slowing through yearend, Xeneta said. “Q4 for airlines and freight forwarders will likely not be as good as hoped, but 2025 overall may not be as bad as they feared,” van de Wouw said. “A year ago, at this time, we talked of a ‘peak season to be proud of’ and air cargo on its final approach to double-digit growth. One year down the line, the market looks very different.” Cargo Facts Symposium, the quintessential event for stakeholders and key leaders in the global freighter and air cargo industries, will take place Oct. 22-24 at the Grand Hyatt in Nashville . Learn more and register today to attend this key industry event. Cargo Facts LATAM 2026, the essential event for stakeholders in Latin America, will take place Feb. 10-12 at the Marquis Reforma in Mexico City. Learn more and register by Dec. 19 to take advantage of early-bird pricing.

Air cargo volume growth slows as industry enters Q4

Spot rates fell YoY for 5th consecutive month, hit global average of $2.54 per kg

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