American Airlines, Google team up on contrail study

American Airlines is looking to contrail avoidance to address decarbonization goals . The airline released findings Wednesday from a study that shows AI can help reroute aircraft to reduce contrail emissions, thus diminishing harmful carbons left in the air. According to the study, conducted in partnership with Google and Breakthrough Energy , a sustainability-focused nonprofit organization, AI technology is able to track patterns in the atmosphere via satellites and other weather monitoring. [caption id="attachment_57137656" align="alignleft" width="366"] Photo/Breakthrough Energy[/caption] Contrails are the condensation or vapor trails left by airplanes when air temperature and humidity meet, according to NASA . Carbon emissions in aviation account for about 2% of overall global emissions, according to IATA . Contrails could be responsible for up to 57% of those emissions, according to a study conducted by Science Direct between 2000 and 2018. The American Airlines study said this number is closer to 35% today. “While contrail avoidance removes a large warming impact in the near term, aviation carbon dioxide emissions still contribute upwards of 2% of anthropogenic climate change,” Marc Shapiro , director of Breakthrough Energy Contrails, told Air Cargo Next. “Contrail avoidance does not remove the need to decarbonize aviation via sustainable aviation fuels and other technology development.” Much of the industry’s focus on carbon removal has been placed on sustainable aviation fuel , a greener alternative to jet fuel made from waste products. But other factors also contribute to carbon emissions. “The aviation sector is the hardest of all sectors to decarbonize. This has been known for a long time,” Julio Friedmann , chief scientist of Carbon Direct , previously told Air Cargo Next . “There are some efficiencies that we will continue to get through engine and aircraft design and logistical management. But most people believe those gains will be small. So, the primary ways to decarbonize planes are sustainable aviation fuels and carbon dioxide removal.” Shifting focus With many major carriers adopting IATA’s 2050 net-zero targets, American Airlines pilots flew 70 test flights over six months, tracking data to see if AI could predict atmospheric zones that are likely to produce contrails. The airline used Google’s AI-based predictions and Breakthrough Energy’s open-source contrail model. “ The goal of this trial was to demonstrate that we can verifiably avoid contrail formation using our forecast models. The next step is to avoid highly warming contrails and demonstrate the amount of climate warming avoided,” Breakthrough’s Shapiro said. “ Contrails form cirrus clouds, which strongly absorb outgoing thermal radiation but weakly reflect incoming solar radiation. Lower, thicker clouds strongly reflect incoming solar radiation, so they actually act to cool the planet overall.” The study found that when AI was used to avoid areas of the atmosphere that would produce contrails, the overall effectiveness resulted in 54% fewer contrail formations. The study did not say what percentage of carbon emissions were reduced by avoiding contrails. “Our contrails predictions combine the latest in AI research with massive amounts of satellite imagery, weather data and flight data,” Juliet Rothenberg , head of product for Climate AI at Google Research , said in a release from American Airlines. “We now have the first proof point that commercial flights can use these predictions to avoid contrails, as verified in satellite imagery.” However, the study also concluded that, to achieve its goals, each aircraft burned approximately 2% more fuel than if it had stayed on its original course, with a projected amount of 0.3% more fuel used overall. Despite this, the Google research team said contrail avoidance could be a cost-effective, scalable solution to carbon reduction in aviation . “The 2% additional fuel required for an individual flight to avoid contrails was in line with our expectations for this study, but we expect this number to go down as we automate avoidance and improve the accuracy of our forecasts,” Shapiro said. Join Air Cargo Next for its second annual Air Cargo Tech Summit on Sept. 18-19 in Brussels, sponsored by Unisys and Brussels Airport and featuring a fireside chat with Brian Hodges, managing director, American Airlines Cargo. For more details and to register, click here .

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