Autonomous Tech: How the supply chain is going hands-free

What’s holding us back?

Matyushev is not alone in his concern about the FAA regulations – especially the line-of-sight rule, which will hamper the profitability of just about every possible application of UAV technology. Fortunately, those regulations are not likely to last forever.

“Regulations for drones will follow technology,” said Avalon Risk’s Goldsmith. “We will get to some common minimum standard of sense-and-avoid technology, to avoid buildings and other aircraft and people. That’s when I think we will see beyond line-of-sight become safer.”

And if the U.S. government refuses to change, there are a lot other countries in the world, said Peterson of Flexport. “Governments will prevent driverless technologies in some places,“ he said. “But other governments will adopt the technology, and those regions will have such efficient transportation networks that their economies will grow dramatically faster, which will put huge pressure on regulators everywhere to legalize the technology.”

Also, because of the potential savings to be reaped with driverless/pilotless technology, risk managers such as Goldsmith are far more willing to take the risk and offer insurance for these yet-untested vehicles. In fact, the United States Aircraft Insurance Group (AIG) just introduced its Performance Vector Unmanned policy in August, created specifically for policyholders who insure UAVs.

“We already will insure an aircraft that flies beyond line-of-sight. We’ll insure someone who is not even Part 107 compliant,” Goldsmith said. “In terms of just the pure risk, we didn’t see someone without those certifications flying at 100 feet taking pictures of a house as more risky than someone flying at 100 feet who did have a pilot’s license. This was about the technology, not the operator.”

Whenever disruptive technology emerges in the marketplace, there is a natural resistance to change that always rises up to challenge the deployment of the technology – and the autonomous vehicle industry is expected to be no different.

“I suspect that the truck driver pool will push back against drone trucking – the same way they pushed back against e-logs and dashboard cameras,” Goldsmith added. “But ultimately, the things these people that own these companies are worried about – safety and profitability – will win.”