Cirium projects capacity recovery through April despite omicron outbreaks

A positive recovery trend for global air capacity is expected to continue through April following stalls driven by omicron outbreaks in January. Data to the end of March 2022 is projecting that capacity will be down 22% YoY from 2019, and improving to 19% down at the end of April, said Max Kingsley-Jones, senior consultant at Ascend by Cirium, a panelist at today’s market update from the aviation analytics company. [caption id="attachment_98889" align="alignright" width="905"] Photo courtesy of Ascend by Cirium.[/caption] “Airlines have been tending to add flights to their schedule speculatively and then removing them depending on how demand shapes up as they get nearer to the [scheduled date], so as we get closer, we’ve been seeing the numbers drop,” he said. For instance, the projection for the end of March was initially 5 percentage points higher, he said. Kingsley-Jones further noted that the data has yet to show any impact from the Ukraine-Russia conflict . However, lockdowns in China ensued by omicron outbreaks has led to Chinese carriers canceling thousands of both domestic and international flights , which will have a significant impact on the already-strained available bellyspace. Meanwhile, an ongoing recovery in international long-haul passenger demand is expected to continue this summer, slowly increasing available bellyspace, according to Senior Consultant Richard Evans of Ascend by Cirium. This includes routes to the Middle East and some to Asia and Australia . “I’m more concerned about what’s going on in China with COVID-19 cases and lockdowns and supply chain disruptions [for] the goods we see flying over from Northeast Asia,” Evans said. Freighter demand soars Despite stalls in recovery, the demand for new freighter aircraft remains strong, especially for passenger-to-freighter conversions, which may help boost capacity, according to the Cirium Fleet Forecast. The current forecast through 2027 expects 520 narrowbody and 334 widebody P2F conversions. “The air cargo market is actually now ahead of where it was in 2019,” Evans said. “People are rushing into the conversion market, [so] there’s obviously going to be a boom in conversions in the next two to three years, but it might not last forever because we will see the long-haul market coming back at some point.” Current projected global recovery, which for some regions was ahead of schedule, may be impacted by the Ukraine-Russia crisis, according to the data. As of January, Europe, Latin America and the Middle East’s recovery was ahead of plan while Asia-Pacific, North America and China are falling behind. The Air Cargo Tech Summit, the new airfreight logistics event presented by Air Cargo World , will take place live in Miami from June 6-7. Learn more and register here.

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