IATA projects SAF production to triple in 2024

Sustainable aviation fuel production is on track to triple from 2023 levels to 1.9 billion liters this year, which IATA said would account for a little more than one-half of 1 percent of aviation’s total 2024 fuel needs. [caption id="attachment_89599" align="alignright" width="300"] (Photo/Can Stock)[/caption] Global sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production in 2023 was 600 million liters , doubling from 2022, but a drop in the bucket compared to the 450 billion liters needed to reach IATA’s net-zero target by 2050. SAF can reduce carbon emissions in aviation by 80% and is produced using numerous feedstocks, including: Agricultural residues; Used cooking and vegetable oil; and Unsalable animal fats; And more recently: Algae; Biomass or human waste ; and Electric wind and solar power to form power-to-liquid SAF, or eSAF . While generally thought to be the most reliable path toward net-zero targets, SAF has critics who question its low feedstocks in comparison to traditional jet kerosene, and its comparatively high cost, which is about two to three times the price of jet kerosene. “ SAF will provide about 65% of the mitigation needed for airlines to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050,” IATA Director General Willie Walsh said in a June 2 release. “So the expected tripling of SAF production in 2024 from 2023 is encouraging. We still have a long way to go, but the direction of exponential increases is starting to come into focus.” Uncertain commitments While the 140 SAF projects expected to be operational by 2030 could provide 63.7 billion liters, or 51 million tonnes, of SAF by 2030, not all announced projects have secured funding, according to the release. “Despite this positive development, several challenges remain,” Brandon Fried , executive director of the Airforwarders Association , told Air Cargo Next . “One of the primary hurdles is the scalability of production technologies, which still require substantial investment and innovation to meet global demand sustainably. Furthermore, the supply chain logistics for distributing SAF efficiently and cost-effectively pose another significant challenge.” A significant increase in policy measures to support SAF production is needed, according to IATA. “The interest in SAF is growing and there is plenty of potential,” Walsh said in the release. “But the concrete plans that we have seen so far are far from sufficient.” Governments set expectations for aviation to achieve a 5% carbon emissions reduction through SAF by 2030 and to have net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. “They now need to implement policies to ensure that airlines can actually purchase SAF in the required quantities,” Walsh said in the release. SAF framework To ensure an increase in SAF production globally, there are four key areas industry leaders, stakeholders and governments should focus on, according to IATA: Diversifying feedstocks; Co-processing, including existing refineries that can be used to co-process up to 5% of approved renewable feedstocks alongside crude oil streams; Incentives to improve the output mix at renewable fuel facilities; and Incentives to boost investments in renewable fuel production. “While increased production typically leads to lower costs due to economies of scale, this process can be gradual,” Fried said. “As production ramps up, we might see a reduction in SAF prices over the next 5 to 10 years, contingent upon continuous technological advancements and supportive regulatory frameworks. “There needs to be a notable increase in the number of SAF operators, driven by growing environmental awareness and regulatory pressures,” he said. “Governments must increasingly offer subsidies, grants and incentives to boost SAF production, reflecting a broader commitment to sustainability.” Register here for Air Cargo Next ’s upcoming webinar, “Air Cargo and Pharma: Using Technology to Save Lives,” on Tuesday, June 18, at 11 a.m. ET.

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