IATA, WorldACD: Volume growth rates tap the brakes in September

While freight rates hit their highest level since January in September, according to Drewry’s East-West Airfreight Price Index, year-over-year volume growth slowed to its lowest rate in months, with WorldACD reporting September y-o-y growth of 8.8 percent and the International Air Transport Association (IATA) reporting 9.2 percent growth.

The slow-down in growth comes as little surprise, as this time last year saw a turnaround of the dismal numbers the air cargo industry posted for much of the year, making year-over-year comparisons tougher from here on out. WorldACD noted that other factors likely weighed on September’s volumes as well, with the hurricanes in the U.S. Gulf impacting air cargo in the Atlantic South of the U.S. and the Caribbean.

In a typically bearish note, IATA predicted the decline in growth indicates the end of the industry’s cyclical growth peak, as “the upward trend in seasonally-adjusted freight volumes in Q3 has eased and the inventory-to-sales ratio in the U.S. is now trending sideways.” To counteract the slowdown, IATA’s director general Alexandre de Juniac advised the industry to remain competitive by “accelerating the modernization of its many antiquated processes.”

However, more optimistically, WorldACD highlighted the overall health of the industry, with September marking the 13th month in a row with y-o-y volume growth well above 5 percent, while revenues were up by a solid 21.8 percent, y-o-y, in September. Additionally, airfreight volume growth to and from the Asia-Pacific region remained in the double-digits for the month, while the world’s top 20 forwarders also saw impressive growth of 11.2 percent, y-o-y. Forwarders in the Asia-Pacific, North America and European regions all surpassed 10 percent, y-o-y, growth during the month, WorldACD added.