How long will passenger freighters last?

Within a month, the number of passenger aircraft operating in freighter configuration has increased from around 130 to 650 today. According to a running tally prepared by our sister publication Cargo Facts , 92 airlines currently operate a mix of widebody, narrowbody, and even turboprop, aircraft on cargo-only flights. Most are deployed to transport medical goods and personal protective equipment (PPE), with more than 90% of aircraft deployed being widebodies. The interactive map below gives an overview of the different operators and number of aircraft operated on such missions. The pop-up provides additional detail on aircraft types. Interactive Map - Passenger Freighter Operations by Airlines, as of end of April 2020 (Source: Cargo Facts analysis). .embed-container {position: relative; padding-bottom: 80%; height: 0; max-width: 100%;} .embed-container iframe, .embed-container object, .embed-container iframe{position: absolute; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%;} small{position: absolute; z-index: 40; bottom: 0; margin-bottom: -15px;} <iframe title="Passenger Freighters April 2020" src="//www.arcgis.com/apps/Embed/index.html?webmap=11535e262af24ef087d045203caadd0a&extent=-124.7356,-36.2765,135.2448,71.8711&zoom=true&previewImage=false&scale=true&details=true&legend=true&active_panel=details&basemap_gallery=true&disable_scroll=true&theme=light" width="500" height="400" frameborder="0" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" scrolling="no" data-mce-fragment="1"> Although this level of activity has expanded substantially in the past four weeks, we expect that in the coming months these operations will start to wind down as the demand for medical cargo decreases and normal passenger capacity comes back on line. How quickly the latter happens depends very much on how quickly restrictions are loosened and we start the long march towards normality. Yesterday, Eurocontrol published a forecast that provides an estimate of air traffic activity based on a coordinated and non-coordinated approach across European States. Figure - European Air Traffic Movement Forecast May 2020 - Feb 2021 (Source: Eurocontrol, prepared April 24, 2020) According to these scenarios intra-European traffic would recover first, followed by long-haul traffic. In a coordinated scenario traffic would slowly pick up in May and June, and reach 80% of previous levels by the end of 2020. In the case of a non-coordinated scenario, the recovery would commence later and take longer. We think that passenger freighter activity would also drop off around this time, sometime between June and August. If countries go back to some degree of normality, then this would also imply that the supply chain for medical-related goods is operating normally and extra air cargo capacity is no longer required.

How long will passenger freighters last?

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