Weekly Wrap: Widebody additions and deliveries, and the end of the 747 [VIDEO]

This week, Cargo Facts reported on stories involving widebody aircraft, including: Ethiopian Airlines’ plans to add a 777F and three converted 767-300Fs ; the first reconfigured A380 passenger freighter; and Lufthansa Cargo ’s expected delivery of two new 777Fs in 2020 . But the 747 was also in the spotlight. In the video below, editors Charles Kauffman and Jeff Lee discuss the end of Boeing ’s 747-8 program and look at the implications of that on the used market for both production and converted 747Fs. Hear about the news for the week ending July 10, and get a glimpse at what Cargo Facts will cover next week. The following transcript has been generated by software and is being presented as is. Some transcription errors may remain . Caryn Livingston 00:02 Hello everyone and welcome to this episode of cargo facts connect the podcast and video series about all things, freighters and conversions. I'm your host, Karen Livingston, and I'm joined today by Charles Kauffman, Senior Editor of cargo facts and cargo facts associate editor Jeff Lee. Hello, Charles and Jeff. It's hard to believe we're nearly midway through July, which in normal years would be a quieter period for the industry to reflect and to look ahead and plan for peak season. Of course, that's not the case this year. Robust demand for freighter lift remains as passenger flights have yet to resume. I noticed that much of your reporting this week is focused on the 747 dash eight freighter. Can you tell us a little about about your outlook for the 747 dash eight? Charles Kauffman 00:53 Yes, definitely. Karen says that's something that we've you know, we've followed closely, not just now But over the years, the 747 is the the backbone of the large wide body freighter fleet. And if we look at the 747 dash eight freighter variant in particular. You know, it's there have been some interesting developments in recent weeks. If we take a step back and you know, look at a period of time prior to the great financial crisis You know, there there were a large number of 747 400 traders the predecessor to be that shape operating in combination carrier fleets globally, and, and with scheduled all cargo carriers as well. And there was there's an expectation that as these fleets came up for renewal that the the dash a variable would play a role. I think there was also you know, I hope that the the sachet high patronage variant would would shoulder more of the program's weight and had been as had been the case with the 747 400 passenger variants, quite a few of those were in service as we know. And unfortunately, those orders never never materialized. So, the program you know, does not have the, the momentum to to sustain deliveries in large numbers if we if we look at the current situation today because some of those replacement orders just have not materialized. You know, as it stands now, there there are carriers that have expressed interest in taking an additional 7478 you know, down the road, but not necessarily in large quantities and quantities that would be needed to sustain the program. So I'm talking the types of operators such as cargo trucks, subway, all cargo carriers. And we've seen some, some recent interest from from other types of operators. But Jeff, do you wanna speak to that a bit? Jeff Lee 03:24 Yeah, so Asiana in South Korea is officially they're looking at the triple seven two, meaning they're free to fleet. But we I think it's fair to say that they're also looking at this the dash eight particularly because they've got 12 older 400 phrases that they put they need to replace and these eight converted phrases and, you know, looking at fellow South Korean operated Korean Air with said dash eight and for 400 I think it's not hard to imagine that Asiana would also be considering the dash eight particularly because the four hundreds are becoming on nearing the age where they do need to be replaced. Charles Kauffman 04:26 Yeah. So, so, we are seeing you know, some some operators emerge, you know with with apparent interest in the program. Unfortunately, Boeing seems to have more or less admitted in in a rather formal matter that the manner that the the end of the line is, is nearing. If we look back at the company's quarterly filings over the past few years, you know, there had been this glimmer of hope, if you will, a line that mentioned that Boeing continued to evaluate the program from its most recent filing, that line was was no longer included. And so as it stands today, we're looking at a backlog of 1515 or so aircraft ordered by ups and the whole nipper group, you know, there could be a few spare production kits that that we don't know about. I'm not aware of any, of course. And I think, you know, this, if we look at recent triple seven orders, the writing is also to some extent been on the wall we've seen current and former 747 operators like EA Air China Airlines. Turn to the seven the triple seven For their, their wide body, freighter fleet renewal, and so it's obviously the the UPS order for 14 and then another 1428, potentially 29 depending on how things play out with the Vulcan number order. That was obviously a substantial order, but it's it's hard to identify where another such quarter could come from. And that's really what it would rightly take to to sustain the program. We also are aware of an attempt by a consortium of investors to to acquire the the program from Boeing and potentially try and restart production outside of Boeing's own factories. And that, that did not seem to be of interest to Boeing. So it's, it's pretty safe to say that the end is is near for new build production 747 data sheets Caryn Livingston 07:09 so it's been a busy few weeks for for new production freighter news. Jeff, what do you think about the the US freighter market. Jeff Lee 07:20 So this is interesting. With the end of the production dash a program the only way that carriers can acquire, okay, and they can get their hands on a dash eight if they wanted to, is of course the US market. And this there's an interesting quote from from one of our folder sources. Idle capacity has always been expensive, but idle capacity during COVID-19 is a crime. Now, imagine our surprise when we found out that to seven year old 747 shades have been parked in Saudi Arabia since before the pandemic since January. And looking at San Diego cargos website designers, absolutely no trace of these aircraft. And you wouldn't be able to tell that they had these. And we have subsequently found out that they are actually looking to sell these two planes. And interestingly, we've also seen what appears to be another 7.7 dash f that was built in 2019. That is up for sale. And we can kind of narrow down who that might be. And but it's actually not just dash eights that have been parked. For example, we know to have China Airlines is 400 are invincible and they've been there since 2012. And they're also to average cago 400 traitors in Spain, and they would move to there in May after being returned. So and you know that's leaving aside quite a number of converted to 7400 phrases as well. Whether that's on the other hand, we have seen some other operators taking us seven years seven, four sevens and they'll be re entering some student. For example, new operator, long tail in Bermuda. Then least 747 was in Kansas City and undergoing maintenance from Wildwood, just left it there and headed to Anchorage earlier this week. And it also looks like air Atlanta, Icelandic is picking up a couple more. And they'll be thing they'll be making their way over to Iceland pretty soon. Charles Kauffman 10:08 And and Jeff, are most of these these transactions that you're discussing in the US market? These are production, freighters, 747 400, factory built aircraft or their conversion? Yes, Jeff Lee 10:20 they are. They are factory built 400 F's which is, you know, they're a hot commodity these days. Charles Kauffman 10:31 And what do you think about the conversions are those? You know, we mentioned that production, the assembly lines are likely to be idled in the near future. Boeing obviously shut down its 747 400 BCF conversion program a few years ago. II has yet to do so on a formal basis. Do you think we could see a few more? Jeff Lee 10:57 Yeah, I mean, we have to wonder whether There'll be a shift to demand for conversions or additional conversions. I seems optimistic with that. Paul received some orders. But I mean, looking at the number of converted seven, four sevens that are left news right now, and I don't know, even though maybe some newer friends might generate interest. So, we'll just have to see but I mean, if we're going into, you know, a major recession. There's also the question, you know, will there will we need that many 747 traitors. If they've been part of this time, when we're in a recession, will there be a need for them? Charles Kauffman 12:00 Right I think from conversations we've had parked parked capacity or fantasy that remains park at this point is is unlikely to to be removed from the desert but certainly some of the retirements will make available spare parts and and engines for for seven for seventh graders and 476 sevens as well. Caryn Livingston 12:31 So, following up the extensive, wide body freighter freighter filled news week, what's on tap for next week on cargo facts? Charles Kauffman 12:42 And that's a good question. So I'm going to take a trip back to 2019 I atta watts data came out or I have access to it. And so I'm entrenched in that I always find that of interest and so Look forward to revisiting those numbers a bit next week and in the coming weeks. Caryn Livingston 13:06 Jeff, what's coming up for you? Jeff Lee 13:09 We might be examining the 767 platform. And then there also boven numbers, orders and deliveries should be out next week, which is interesting because if European told us that it's advanced the order another triple seven freighter, along with five other freighters, converted freighters. So we'll see if that appears in growing numbers for June and also with looking at a possibly a new freight operator. So that's exciting. Caryn Livingston 13:47 Yeah, it sounds like there's a lot to follow and not just for the 747 platform, but for other white body readers as well. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. For the latest updates or to check out the passenger Free to database visit www cargo facts calm.

Weekly Wrap: Widebody additions and deliveries, and the end of the 747 [VIDEO]

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