Listen: Passenger freighters still around one year later

It has been just over one year since Cargo Facts published its first story involving cargo-only flights utilizing Cathay Pacific and Singapore Airlines passenger aircraft . What had been initially been considered a temporary solution soon became an integral part of the glue that has held supply chains together during the COVID-19 pandemic. This week, Cargo Facts published a comprehensive analysis of the more than 100,000+ cargo-only passenger-freighter flights that have been operated since March 2020. In this podcast episode of Cargo Facts Connect, Senior Editor Charles Kauffman and Associate Editor Jeff Lee revisit operations over the past year, and discuss the longevity and outlook for pax-freighter operations. A transcript is available below. This transcript has been generated by software and is being presented as is. Some transcription errors may remain. Charles Kauffman Hi everyone and welcome to this episode of Cargo Facts, the newsletter of record for the air cargo in freighter aircraft industries for over 40 years. I'm Charles Kauffman, your host. And this is our weekly wrap for what's happening in the industry this week. Before we begin, I'd like to thank our sponsors and advertisers Ancra international, AEI, C Cubed Aerospace, EFW and IPR conversions are pleased to be joined today by Jeff Lee, our associate editor. On March 9 2020, we reported on what we thought may have been a temporary solution to what we're at the time limited number of passenger flight cancellations in Asia with Cathay Pacific then subsidiary Cathay dragon using passenger configured a 330 300 solely to carry cargo between Hong Kong and select destinations in mainland China, most notably Beijing and Shanghai. And Singapore Airlines with its scoot subsidiary flying cargo in the belly hold of its seven, eight sevens. These were the early days of the passenger freighters. Jeff, back then, did you think we would still be writing about passenger freighters one year later? Jeff Lee Yes, those really were the very early days. And no, I don't think we thought would still be writing about them. One year later, but I don't think we were surprised that they're still happening. In mid-to-late March, we saw these the start of these passenger freight operations. And then we gradually just continued seeing more and more. And that was partly what prompted us to come up with this with a with, you know, some kind of list that records these operations. And in April 2020 issue we had predicted that the year would be 2020 would be the year of the freighter. Now that that may have been an understatement because unquestioning questionably 2020 was the year of the very much the year with the freezer. But what we didn't know at the time was that it would also be true in another sense, because obviously 2020 has also been with you ever for the passenger free time. And we kind of knew that these operations will continue for some time, based on what we were seeing and based on what some of the operators were telling us because they said that they saw cargo only passenger operations, that's just flights going well into 2021. And some hadn't guessed 2020 to Charles Kauffman Right, and here we are March 2021. There are still extensive passenger freighter flight operations. This week, we published what we believe to be the most comprehensive analysis of passenger freighter operations to date on a carrier by carrier basis. Jeff, where are we at today in terms of these operations? Jeff Lee These actually these operations are quite interesting. And just the scale of passenger freighter flights today is interesting. I should point out but towards the well around the summer of 2020, these operations slowed down a bit. And obviously because travel restrictions were lifted and passenger flights were resumed to some extent. And then, you know, by the fall, the The same thing happens with travel restrictions coming and passenger flights being cancelled. And airlines had to, again, improvise and start these passenger freight routes. And actually, we're seeing that compared to the period from March last year. To the summer, from a fall last fall and early 2021. Actually, the scale has, in some ways been even more widespread than the last year because we're seeing new newer airlines doing it and, you know, more aircraft being reconfigured, and put on cargo only operations. So, up to now we've seen overall, we've seen more than 2600 aircraft having been used on a cargo only mission at least once. And, of these, we've recorded over 220 being reconfigured in some way by at least 65 different airlines. Now, I should point out that, of course, some of these have already returned to passenger service. But the important thing is that, in total, more than 220 aircraft have now experienced some kind of reconfiguration of cargo. And when we look deeper into the types more than 50 of these of the 220, reconfigured aircrafts, more than 50 have been triple seven 300 years. And so that's by far the most popular model for these reconfigurations, the then around 25 each have 767 300 737-800-8330 283 3300s. What's also interesting is that a couple of seven eight sevens in the 350s have also been reconfigured. And generally, these reconfigurations are still continuing. And we expect to see more of them as the weeks and months go by. Charles Kauffman So more and more are on the way. Could you add a bit of color as to which operators continue to operate large volumes of cargo only flights? And I guess, in your opinion, what does this tell us about the regions or trade lanes that are dependent on this extra option for for lift. Jeff Lee And on list, we, we collected data on more than 20 Airlines. And perhaps it's not a surprise, but Emirates came out on top with 27,500 flights. and Qatar Airways with around we estimate around 25,000 flights said that those who were by far the top operators of cargo only for flights. And then the third one was a bit of a surprise, actually, because it was Japan Airlines. And they both they don't have any freighters, which is one element of wild surprising, but also, they don't have as large a network as some of these other airlines, for example, you know, the next one is China Airlines. And then we have cafe, United Air France KLM. So and all of these have operated more than 10,000 cargo only flights. And looking at these carriers on our list, the top 14 all have triple seven 300 ears in their seats. And of course they've used them on these other only flights. And the top seven are all free to operators. So as to, you know, for the regions, many of these carriers are in the Asia Pacific or middle eastern regions. And they've obviously they've got pretty global networks, and they've operated many of these sites, you know, all around the world. But we are seeing that many of these cargo only flights have served be observed Asia, Middle East, Europe, and particularly the Indian subcontinent. So but actually, you would be surprised because the transatlantic route has also seen heavy passenger freight in use, especially in the past few months. And that's been driven mainly by by automotive charters, which is why we're seeing even airlines without freighters doing a lot of work carrying automotive parts between between Germany, mainly Germany and the US and Mexico. Charles Kauffman And we've even seen operators without much history in the cargo business, shuttling auto parts and whatnot across the transatlantic lane, haven't we? Jeff Lee We have. And one notable example of that is to read into a group in Germany, which, you know, they were predominantly or, well, they were a passenger leisure carrier, you know, going to sunshine destinations. So, those obviously weren't heavy target destinations. And now they're using, you know, all of the not all, but they're using many of their seven, eight sevens to shuttle between Germany and auto centers in North America. And they also when actually, they also told us that they'll be reconfiguring a few of their seven six sevens too. So yeah, at this stage, it is interesting that more reconfigurations are on the way. Charles Kauffman It'll be interesting to see how that evolves moving forward. If, if they stick with with cargo, I'm sure it's more forgiving. In some cases, then. Then leisure passengers. Ultimately, Jeff, what is it going to take for these operations to wind down? Jeff Lee There, I think there are a couple of scenarios. And one we've kind of seen already, which is the resumption of passenger flights. And particularly with the US carriers, and many of the EU carriers without freighters, they do need these aircrafts for their passenger flights. And so they they simply can't have sustained the same level of passenger freight operations. And yes, they mean, yeah, some of these groups might not be might not be seen by many passengers. So in effect, it's basically color only fighting with a handful of passengers or self loading cargo, some would say, on the main deck. But as the months go by, and when capacity starts returning to the market, obviously, the rates will go down, and the carriers won't simply wouldn't, it wouldn't make sense for them to continue operating these passenger freighters and all of that, of course, depends on on travel restrictions, which in Asia, for example, haven't really been lifted. Much. And so obviously, that's this is one region that continues to see large volumes of passenger freighter flights. Charles Kauffman Okay, prediction time, one year from now, are we still going to see scheduled passenger freighter flights? Jeff Lee Well, we know how few top predictions are in this day, but I think I think I'm gonna say yes, because just thinking about the scale of the passenger airlines, and then the networks that they have, after the the recovery, they might endure the Well, for one thing, flight frequencies are probably going to be lower. And so especially for the those with Fritos, they do need to feed that freighters in the fridge. I mean, I can't I think they will still need to operate some level of passenger freighter flights in order to just sustain that level of capacity that they had. Because the Yeah, because their passenger flights aren't going to be as frequent or, you know, aren't going to be as widespread as before. And the other thing is that the and this might be I don't know how, what effect this would have. But on the shipping side, you know, we've seen so many disruptions. And over the past year, we've actually even seen some shipping companies that charter passenger freighters So, you know, really that will help the supply chains catch up, I guess. So as we head into the summer and the peak this this esp i think we will see passenger freighter flights what about you Charles Kauffman well there's there's still a lot of uncertainty about the global economy and the trajectory of the pandemic as you mentioned recovery of passenger networks of course in the united states and in a few other countries i'm optimistic at least that vaccines will help in that from an economic standpoint that trillions of dollars in stimulus should help prop up or fuel consumer demand and some of the other traditional drivers of air cargo however i would i would expect that we'll see a pretty dramatic reduction you know i'm not going to make any predictions as to where rates will be in into as we move into 2022 certainly many of the forwarders are expecting higher yields through 2022 at the earliest just based on their expectations around recovery of passenger belly hold capacity i would not expect to see some of the for example us mainline carriers operating large numbers of passenger flights to simply because as their as they do resume service to two destinations i think we'll see a gradual reduction you know but i wouldn't rule rule out completely if you know COVID is still going to be around in a year hopefully we don't see many travel restrictions and the global travel or vaccine passports do catch on and are recognized if they are not passenger freighter flights will continue my my guess though is yeah i would agree we'll see we'll see flights continue just at a at a on a smaller scale Jeff Lee i mean that's because many of these airlines will still have spare aircraft lying around and they might want to make use of them if if they can get the returns for and i guess depends on fuel prices too i mean there are just so many variables it's hard to even predict you know more than i don't know more than more than a few months but we shall see and will obviously continue to follow and track these these operations Charles Kauffman i think i think a more interesting question is how many operators without freighters pre COVID you know it back in 2019 combination guerriers how many will we see to move from reconfiguration into full freighter conversion to where they're actually adding full freighters to their fleet do you think we'll see see any carriers take that plunge or or is this a fleeting exercise Jeff Lee in think what we've seen a couple that we'll be moving into the free to space but we don't know how what the while we don't know what underlies these decisions i've been there i would assume these were longer term plans but the as you were saying that i was thinking of another interesting point which is you know now that so many airlines have started operating or that have operated triple seven 300 years in a kind of cargo only configuration whether reconfigured or not what does that mean for the prospects of the triple seven 300 arsf version i would think i suspect that a couple of these airlines are now they finally maybe looking more carefully at triple 720 drs Charles Kauffman that's an interesting point we'll have to we'll have to see how that develops moving forward that unfortunately just about does it for for time to those of you listening thank you for joining us on this episode of cargo facts connect for more multimedia content Like this, check out cargo factory comm and search cargo facts connect on iTunes, Spotify or wherever you find your podcast. Subscribe to Cargo Facts Connect on iTunes or Spotify , or download the episode on Transistor . Cargo Facts Asia, taking place April 20-21 as a virtual experience, is the event for exploring opportunity in the Asia-Pacific region. The event continues to bring together the best, brightest, and most innovative executives in the global air cargo industry. Learn more and register at www.cargofactsasia.com .

Listen: Passenger freighters still around one year later

Podcast discussion on the state of, and outlook for, cargo-only pax flights

TUM AeroCarga won’t seek US cabotage rights

Cainiao joins Cargo Facts Asia e-commerce roundtable

Cainiao joins Cargo Facts Asia e-commerce roundtable

Cargo Facts Free Newsletters

Cargo Facts Connect Podcast

Follow Us

Welcome Back!

Retrieve your password