Consultant’s Insight: Pilot shortages continue to plague airlines

A pilot shortage still exists four years after the pandemic grounded all passenger airplanes and then air cargo capacity slowly returned via the bellies of passenger airplanes throughout the pandemic. [caption id="attachment_69752" align="alignleft" width="275"] Cathy Roberson, Cargo Facts Consulting senior consultant and Air Cargo Next columnist[/caption] Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific canceled more than 40 flights between Dec. 29 and Jan. 1 because of a “higher-than-anticipated pilot absence caused by seasonal illness on certain days in December. Our operations remain normal overall, with a marked increase in the number of flights operated over the holiday peak season,” according to a Cathay statement. The shortage of pilots a year into the city’s post-pandemic recovery was “at the root” of flight cancellations and delays, according to Paul Weatherilt , chairman of the Hong Kong Aircrew Officers Association . “Because of the decisions taken by management in 2020, the airline’s passenger operation only has 52% of the captains and first officers that it used to have,” he said. A report from the association notes that Cathay Pacific pilot staffing is at 58% of pre-pandemic levels. Citing statistics from Boeing and Airbus , IATA reported that 500,000 to 600,000 pilots will need to be recruited over the next two decades since the number of aircraft in service is predicted to double by 2044. Demand for new pilots is driven by industry growth and the need to replace retiring pilots. The need for new pilots is expected to be greatest in Asia Pacific, according to a CAPA - Centre for Aviation (CAE) analysis. However, the supply of experienced local pilots is constrained. In 2018, CAE estimated that nearly 10% of pilots came from other parts of the world. U.S. market Delta announced it plans to hire more than 1,000 pilots in 2024, about half the number it hired in 2023. Meanwhile, Spirit Airlines has halted new pilot and flight attendant training because it is expecting slower growth amid softening demand for domestic travel. UPS and FedEx are experiencing softer demand for air express services. In August, about 200 UPS pilots accepted buyout offers. FedEx Express management acknowledged it has more than 700 excess pilots and is undergoing an extended contract negotiation with its pilots’ union, according to an August Wall Street Journal report. Regional carrier PSA Airlines , an American Airlines subsidiary, offered $250,000 signing bonuses to experienced UPS and FedEx pilots willing to work as PSA captains. “We did get a handful of pilots who said, ‘Yep, this is right for me. I’m coming over,’ PSA President Dion Flannery told the Dayton Daily News in December. “We’ve actually started training many of them already.” Still, many sources believe there is a pilot shortage in the United States. To a large extent, the problem reflects an aging pilot population. According to FAA data, the average age of U.S. airline pilots in 2021 was 51 years. A revised estimate from consulting firm Oliver Wyman predicts a gap between supply and demand for pilots of nearly 17,000 for North America versus the initial estimate of 30,000. In 2023 and 2024, the gap will also be about 17,000. The biggest spread between supply and demand is now expected in 2026, when the difference is expected to be 24,000.

Consultant’s Insight: Pilot shortages continue to plague airlines

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