Exploring international, regional and domestic airfreight vaccine flows (updated)

After months of tracking the international production and distribution process for the COVID-19 vaccine, Cargo Facts Consulting has concluded that the vaccine’s global impact on airfreight will be relatively modest.

The additional intercontinental and intraregional traffic will amount to around 50,000 tonnes of air cargo spread unevenly across the next two years. However, it is important for cargo and logistics operators to understand the various air flows that will be most impacted. In addition, CFC has estimated 70,000 airfreight tonnes of domestic air cargo, mostly originating in the United States, Europe and India and, to a lesser extent, China, Brazil and Japan. This includes both vaccine shipment with domestic origin as well as those with an international origin for domestic redistribution.

Our interactive dashboard shows how much airfreight will be moved across the different air flows, based on production sites and destinations. Most vaccines are now being developed and produced by corporations in the United States, Europe, China, India and Russia, but new arrangements are allowing for some vaccines to be produced in other countries. For instance, in an effort to reduce logistics and import constraints, AstraZeneca has built several regional supply chains to provide rapid access to as many countries as possible, following regulatory approval. Currently, the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine is being produced in the U.S., India, the UK, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea and Australia, and will soon start production in Japan.

EU Distribution

The European Union Commission has decided to diversify its portfolio of vaccine orders for all EU citizens and has secured a total of 2 billion doses so far. The Commission intended to purchase vaccines from different suppliers to increase the chances that one or more candidates would be approved by the European Medicines Agency (EMA). If all vaccines ordered turn out to be effective and safe for general distribution, all Member States may donate a portion of their doses to lower income countries. Figure 1 shows how the EU’s order of 2 billion doses is distributed across the Member States. Figure 1 - European Union distribution of COVID-19 vaccine doses across its Member States

[caption id="attachment_4335" align="aligncenter" width="900"] Source: Cargo Facts Consulting, European Commission [/caption]

The COVID-19 Vaccine Interactive Dashboard

In order to determine the air tonnage required by each country and map the distribution by air across the globe, we have considered the following variables: production sites, confirmed vaccine orders, supplier location, weight of the vaccine and its packaging, and the share of doses to be transported by road versus air. To further break down the air-flow segments, CFC has divided shipments into four different types: Intercontinental air — doses moving across different continents (i.e., North America to South America); Intraregional air — doses moving across different countries within the same region (i.e., Thailand to Indonesia); Domestic air — doses moving within the same country or economic zone (i.e., United States or the European Union); and Domestic air upon arrival — doses moving domestically by air after arriving from a different continent (i.e., North America to Brazil and domestically within Brazil). Below, Figure 2 shows the four types of air-flow segments listed, with examples from various airports. Figure 2 - Examples of air-flow distribution segments

[caption id="attachment_4334" align="aligncenter" width="900"] Source: Cargo Facts Consulting [/caption] The interactive dashboard below allows the viewer to click on a country to display the number of confirmed doses procured by type, the total air weight in tonnes that will be required to position the vaccine, and the type of air distribution: domestic, intercontinental or intraregional. The data feeding the dashboard is updated weekly to reflect the most recent changes in vaccine orders as well as new production sites that may impact air distribution.

Sofar, only a small percentage of pre-ordered doses have been delivered. Three quarters of the global COVID-19 vaccinations have taken place in just ten countries with a total of 216 million vaccine doses administered in over 100 countries and territories. Some countries like Israel are far ahead any other worldwide with almost half of its population having received at least one dose of the vaccine. Figure 3 shows the number of vaccine doses administered in each country and the share of doses administered versus confirmed orders. Figure 3 - Overview of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered by country

Source: Cargo Facts Consulting, Countries’ Health Ministries

The number of doses that have been administered so far worldwide adds up to 2% of all the confirmed orders by countries so the airfreight impact has been minor. Therefore, we have not made changes to our interactive dashboard yet. However, as vaccine production and administration ramps up, we will be updating the dashboard with the amount of airfreight that has moved across the different air flows based on production sites and destinations.

The air freight industry has responded well to the distribution efforts, including the complex ultra-cold chain requirement for the Pfizer vaccine and it also has handled the ramp-up comfortably. So far, the only bottlenecks observed in the vaccine transportation were related to weather events such as the snowstorm that impacted the US state of Texas a few days ago. Last year, the integrators DHL, FedEx and UPS decided to invest in freezer farms, cryogenic packaging centers and refrigerated warehouses to help manufacturers store vaccines. These facilities will be utilized during the COVID pandemic but also in future as the industry moves to a higher share of biological synthesized drugs which require colder temperatures for storage. DHL was recently awarded the contract to distribute the Pfizer vaccine to Japan and will start delivering shipments next week from its Brussels hub. In terms of express volumes, UPS and FedEx stated that they have been delivering 10 million doses per week, according to a recent bloomberg article, which also states vaccines are expected to account for 6% of package volumes over the coming weeks. That figure seems to misrepresent the volumes moving by a large degree, as 10 million doses per week is only about 2000 boxes assuming 5000 doses per box.

We expect to see the peak vaccine distribution between April and May when Novavax starts shipping their product and Johnson & Johnson ramps up production of their single-dose vaccine. But the integrators are not the only players in the vaccine air distribution. Airlines and other cargo operators have also been key in the delivery of vaccines and medical supplies in the last few months. In fact, a group of sixteen international operators have signed up for UNICEF’s latest Humanitarian Airfreight Initiative which commits to equitable access to the vaccine to over 100 lower-income countries. These airlines are Lufthansa, Saudia, Singapore Airlines, IAG, United Airlines, Etihad, Qatar Airways, Emirates, Brussels Airlines, Cathay Pacific, Air France-KLM, Cargolux, Ethiopian, AirBridge Cargo, Astral Aviation and Korean Air.

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