How the AI supply chain is changing air cargo

2026 has been another year of growth for air cargo, despite market headwinds: conflict in the Middle East, surging fuel prices and an ever-changing U.S. trade policy landscape have required the industry to remain nimble. What makes the growth unique is from where it is coming. Artificial Intelligence and the semiconductor supply chain are emerging as increasingly important drivers for air cargo strategy. Global CTK growth Industrywide CTKs increased 3.9% in July compared to the same month last year, with all major carrier regions contributing to the growth, according to IATA. North American carriers saw a 4.8% year-over-year increase in air cargo traffic in July, the strongest performance of all regions, while African airlines saw a 1.1% YoY increase in traffic, the weakest performance of all regions. The geographic distribution of this growth is particularly significant. Asia-North America recorded the strongest trade-lane growth at 9.2% YoY, suggesting that the trans-Pacific market remains a key engine of air cargo demand. This growth is occurring despite significant changes to U.S. trade policy and weakening of some traditional e-commerce flows, raising the question of whether a change in cargo composition is occurring beneath the headline growth figures. Asia-North America is followed by Europe-Asia (3.1%) and Europe-North America (2.1%). July marked 41 months of consecutive growth on the Europe-Asia trade lane. In contrast, Gulf-linked corridors remained heavily disrupted by the conflict in the Middle East, with double-digit declines on each trade lane, according to IATA. In 2025, the trans-Pacific markets were deeply affected by the fast-changing United States import tariff landscape. High tariffs and the end of the U.S. ‘de minimis’ exemptions meant that Hong Kong-U.S. and South Korea-U.S. tonnages were significantly affected. WorldACD’s air cargo trends report states that in Week 37 of 2025, volumes from Hong Kong to the U.S. were down by around 18% YoY, and by 25% YoY from South Korea to the U.S. Despite tariff challenges, strong demand for semiconductors and other high-tech goods, such as those needed for AI data centers, meant volumes to the U.S. from Taiwan, Vietnam and Thailand were up by 53%, 62% and 28% YoY, respectively. Providing further evidence of the current strong U.S. appetite for advanced semiconductors, another market that grew significantly in Weeks 32-37 is Japan to the U.S., where tonnages were up by an average of 25% YoY. Tonnages from China to the U.S. this year have also strengthened significantly and were up by 17% YoY in Week 37, whereas they were broadly flat at this time last year. Overall, Asia Pacific to U.S. demand in Week 37 was up by 17% YoY. The significance of these figures is not simply that trans-Pacific air cargo demand is growing, but that the composition of that cargo appears to be changing. Value density According to a March IATA report on air cargo supporting AI growth, air cargo transported more than two-thirds of global AI-related goods in 2025. In that period, consignments of AI-related goods grew 20% YoY. AI-related goods have a “high value density,” meaning they are generally extremely high-value, but small. The IATA report showed they accounted for 53.5% of the total value of air-transported trade, while representing just 7% of its volume. AI-related shipments account for up to half of EVA Air’s cargo revenue, a spokesperson for the Taiwan-based airline told Cargo Facts recently. An analysis of recent annual reports and company announcements from major cargo carriers reveals several examples of airlines adapting their networks and services to the semiconductor and AI supply chain: China Airlines says it reviewed schedules across Japan and Southeast Asia to accommodate AI servers and semiconductor equipment. It also says it monitors emerging industries including semiconductor-related cargo and AI technology, dynamically adjusting schedules to maximize revenue. In July 2025, Lufthansa Cargo became the first airline to join Silicon Saxony, a European network representing companies in microelectronics, semiconductors and information technology. Lufthansa says the purpose is to develop tailored air -freight solutions for highly sensitive semiconductor products. Singapore Airlines states that rising demand for data infrastructure supported growth in semiconductor and technology supply chains. In response, SIA transported large volumes of server racks and related equipment. Cleanview, a market intelligence company tracking U.S. power infrastructure and data center development, reports that there are 1,303 operating data centers in the U.S., with 2,198 additional planned. Diversifying landscape Although much of this AI material is physically small and easy to handle, there are some exceptions. Due to the construction boom of data centers, particularly AI-ready facilities, the construction timelines are moving companies toward modular construction, wherein significant portions of the infrastructure are being manufactured in Asia and shipped in large modular pieces to the U.S. for final assembly. The size of some of these shipments is creating demand for dedicated freighter capacity, particularly for shipments that are too large for the bellies of passenger aircraft. This highlights an important distinction: the AI-driven cargo market is not defined by a single shipment profile. While semiconductors and other components are typically small, high-value and time-sensitive, the rapid construction of AI data centers is also generating demand for larger and more specialized shipments. The result is a cargo market that increasingly requires both speed and flexibility in aircraft capacity. It would be premature to suggest that AI has simply replaced e-commerce as the primary driver of air cargo growth. E-commerce remains a significant source of demand, but the current investment cycle in AI infrastructure may not continue indefinitely. The more significant development may therefore be the diversification of air cargo demand. The industry is increasingly serving cargo with fundamentally different characteristics — from high-volume e-commerce shipments to high-value semiconductors and oversized data-center infrastructure. As this mix evolves, the challenge for air cargo may not simply be accommodating more tones, but developing the capacity, networks and services required to move increasingly diverse cargo. Value, urgency, physical dimensions and reliability may become just as important as weight in defining the next phase of air cargo growth. Cargo Facts Symposium 2026, the premier event for the freighter aircraft and air cargo industries, will take place in Nashville, Tenn., on Oct. 21-23. Find out more and register here .

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