Watch: Freighter values hover above base levels

Jeff Lee 

Hi, and welcome to this episode of cargo facts industry pulse our market update on freighters equipment and air cargo. I’m Jeff Lee, Associate Editor of Cargo Facts. And we’re joined again by Doug Kelly, Senior Vice President of asset valuation and advisory and consulting firm at a Avitas. Today, Doug will be looking at how the freighter segment and feedstock values are holding up now that it’s been over a year since the onset of the pandemic. Don, thank you for your time, I’ll hand it over to you.

Doug Kelly 

Okay, thanks, Jeff. Good to be here with you. So it was a year ago, we kind of talked about, you know, how Avitas would approach the impact of COVID on values and how we looked at the market. And now, as you said, it’s or a year later and, and so it’s gonna be time for a little review on how well we did and, and where we see the market today and going forward. So on the agenda is is talking about passenger traffic forecasts to begin with, and how we looked at it a year ago compared to how we look at it today. And then we’ll get into the freighter market and some value opinions, and then conclude by taking a look at the triple seven 300 er, SF conversion with GECAS and IAI Bedeck. And how it compares to the production freighter and the 747 400 freighter. This was a chart we showed back in actually may 15. When we released our special edition, habitats blue book and the savvy analysis Market Report. We were trying to forecast what we thought the impact of COVID would be on passenger traffic and GDP. So you can tell by the green line represents GDP. And the blue line represents world RPK traffic. And you can tell by the 2020 downturn there that we expected that to be the worst downturn we’ve ever seen. So compared to the downturns, 1990 and 2001 2008, obviously, it was much more severe because we’re in a lockdown, nobody could go out and travel. And, and so we expected that to be the worst recession and the worst downturn. And we came pretty close. So this is what we released in May, and ended up being almost to the to the percent there, we were predicting 63% and I think it ended up being 65% for the year. And then when released our special edition blue book, this is kind of a summary of the impact values due to COVID-19. And from that chart on the left, you can see that we kind of predicted that narrowbodies would be anywhere from five to 35% drop from pre COVID levels, depending on whether it was in production out of production and the vintage, and widebodies. Five to 45% Regional jets were similar to narrowbodies and freighters. At that time, we weren’t sure what the impact would be. But we knew that taking all that belly capacity out of the system and parking It must be a good thing for traders. So we did not touch trader values at all. And obviously they end up performing very well through the year and severe shortage. As far as World RP Ks as a percentage of 2019 level. We predicted again, the 63% drop 2020 and then getting back to 2019 levels roughly a little past 2023. So we’d be at 98% of traffic levels in 2023. That’s what we were predicting in May. And our new forecast as of March 2021 is shown here compared to our old may 2020 forecast. So you can see on the far right is the old forecast. And then next to it compares to our March 2021 forecast and it’s slightly down from May 20. So we’re not, we’re expecting a slower recovery than last year. And you can see, by 2022, we’re actually 11%, lower than we previously predicted. And in back then, and in May 2010, we didn’t release a breakdown of international and domestic. And so obviously, that’s become very important to look at how these two categories perform. domestics been performing even a little better than we expected that international is the opposite and a lot slower. So we’ve broken out each category here. So if you look at 2019 64% of all traffic is international 36% is domestic that equals 100%. level in 2019. And then we look at each year as a percent of that 2019 level one, when we get back to that 2019 level, we think we will get back to domestic 2019 levels by 2022. But however, on the international side, we don’t expect to get back to 2019 levels until after 2024. So around 2025. Of course, the story there is all about the vaccine. So we like to monitor this data site, our world in data provides the status of the vaccinations, not necessarily for all countries, but you get an idea of how it’s going. So China looks great. 945 million doses administered, but there’s 1.4 million people in that country. And this doesn’t mean the number of people that are totally vaccinated, it just means a single dose administered. So, but it’s good, it’s, it’s probably better than what we expected a year ago. If you look at then the share of people receiving the COVID-19 vaccine, the share of people fully vaccinated, which is the dark green, and then share with people partly vaccinated, which is the lighter green. Of course, Israel’s leading the way and UK is doing well and us is doing well at over 50% at least one dose. And this is good news, because this is as of June 16. And when I looked at this back in March, United States was less than 20%. And now it’s climbed to 53% in June, so we’re heading the right direction. And of course, it’s led to great demand and domestic travel in the US, even around the world. But international travel is still down. significant numbers. Like to look at this statistic, it’s provided the TSA traveler checkpoint numbers, the easy to track, top blue line represents 2019 during the last 30 days, June 25, to may 26, so the last 30 days in 2019, compared to 2020 and green, which obviously fell off quite a bit and now we’re back up to 2021 and red. And it seems to be following the seasonality pattern there of 2019. However, it’s still 23% down and I don’t think we can get past that 2019 levels until really business travel international travel comes back. And of course, that’s going to be the story of the vaccination level worldwide. So if you look at passenger values, now, this is just a sample a 320 200 because it’s a fairly new narrow body and popular narrow body and then you look at the a 330 300 wide body 2011 vintages how we expect the values to perform. So the market value a 330 obviously is way below base value it was below base value before COVID. A little bit below base value and now it’s quite a bit below base value. And we have seen some transaction evidence of the a 330s. Obviously it’s not been a good market. And some young a 330s have sold at some very low numbers makes it attractive for freighter conversion at these levels but not a great return for those owners who are less sores that own nose as far as a 320 was above base value prior to COVID. And now it’s we have a low base value but not Much and we expect that market then on the a 320, to recover to its long term base value trend by 2024. While the why bodies aren’t expected to recover until 2025. The real story is the dedicated freighter market. Our friends, Jeff Lee and Charles Kauffman have been busy writing many articles about how strong this market is. And it’s no surprise given that you have a large percentage of passenger why bodies Park you took out all that wide body capacity and if world cargo traffic is flown 50% dedicated freighters and 50%, on the bellies of passenger airplanes, and we’ve lost a significant share of capacity and that’s created a shortage and driving yields up sometimes three times what 2019 levels are and that’s obviously leading to operators, changing their triple sevens and other aircraft into printers and taking the seats out putting packages in or leaving the seats in putting packages and those type of yields then certainly warrant the ability to make money even using a passenger aircraft, but not expected to last long as we vaccinate people, and we get herd immunity around the world. And obviously, why bodies will be going back into service and will have that belly capacity back in the service and putting downward pressure back on yields. What about our freighter value opinions, we’ve got 737 400 somewhere around seven to 8,000,800 doing well around 18 million 757 13, a 300, around 10 767 26 and 747, around 30. And they’re all above their base value. And we expect that to continue. And I would expect that as the why bodies come back in the service then there certainly be some downward pressure on the 767 Premium and the 747 400 premium. But you still have this strong growth rate from Amazon, which is strong appetite for 767 freighter conversions. And the 747 400 production freighter is a nose loader. And it’s either that or the 7478 freighter for nose loader. So actually, those production seven, four sevens may be around a long time. So values look strong, lease rates look strong. I borrowed this from cargo facts consulting, they produce a forecast, freighter forecast is very good. And if you look at what they’re saying from 2021 with 19 181 freighters in service, they expect that fleet to grow to 3390 by 2040. And that represents about 2.7% compounded annually average growth rate. And so basically a need for 1400. An increase in the fleet from 1400 to 2600 represents the growth in the fleet and plus replacements. So if you look at the chart on the left, which represents the number of aircraft needed, we break it down into replacing retirements and growth, which is represented in the green so narrowbodies little less than 50% will be for growth. And then on a medium wide bodies, actually more than 50% will be for growth and same with the large wide bodies and you add those numbers up the 1137 712 and 770 equals at 2600 additional freighters needed as far as you know conversions versus production, we expect now all the narrowbodies will be converted. That makes sense doesn’t make sense to operate a new narrowbody freighter but when you get to wide bodies, medium and large. You’ll see some conversion activity and Meeting why buddies that represents the 767 which you know, Amazon is actively involved in converting those seven, six sevens. And also FedEx is buying new Seven, six sevens. And on a large wide bodies there’s a need for 770. Large, why bodies over this time period? cargo facts is forecasting 158 of those will be conversions. I think this is going to be a little bit low. So my guess is that it may exceed 200 conversions actually, in the large y bodies given I think that triple seven 300 er, freighter conversion. And I think that’s gonna lead to other triple seven family members being converted, possibly. So I think we wind up having more than that, maybe, maybe 200 or so. On the narrowbody freighter fleet, we’re showing the 737 classics and A320s  are just getting started. So dominated 342 aircraft for 757. The production freighter and the P two f combined. Obviously FedEx ups, the large customers and seven, five sevens, but it’s also popular, other Express carriers around the world. Come back. So obviously, the 737 800 freighter at 58 is just getting started. And we expect that to be a good replacement for those 7373 hundreds and four hundreds. Well, the sweet spot of conversion is usually around 15 to 26 years old. And in five years, most of those 737 classics and seven fives will be too old for conversion. And that kind of makes 737 883 21 I think the best candidates, so 737 800 good for growth and replace in the three hundreds and four hundreds. And as far as replacing the 757 I think the a 321 represents the best size fit. To do that. I think we’ll also see some a 320s but not as large a number as a 321. So again, by 20 4011 137 aircraft are needed for growth and replacement. Where are those aircraft going to come? We got a large supply feedstock of 7378 hundreds, a 320s. The age of conversion, I think is actually going down. And one of the reasons is we have aircraft import age restrictions around the world. So roughly 50 countries around the world have restrictions on passenger or freighter aircraft or both, and which prevents the cross transfer of these aircraft. So aircraft analytics has put together a chart here kind of showing where some of these limitations exist around the world and age limits have anywhere from five years, up to 25 years depending on the place. This is not an exhaustive list. There’s other countries. For example, China, which has more bespoke restrictions, depending on airframe by airframe basis. So a lot of those countries are not listed here, but have some kind of import restrictions, but they are fluid and do change over time. Looking at the medium wide body fleets, obviously dominated by the 767, which is the production freighter is a FedEx ups they’re playing a 300 600 freighter, FedEx, UPS, DHL, those are the main operators of these medium wide body freighters and then of course the Amazon getting involved with 767 300 PDF program and fast growing airline and expect more conversions there. On the large wide body freighter side you know that’s dominated by the triple seven production freighter popular with FedEx and then you have a lot of stuff For seven 400 production freighters and also 48 converted freighters and then 747 811, MD elevens, with UPS and FedEx, and then some Md 10s that are being phased out. So where is the conversion fees going to come from for medium and large aircraft, I think it’s obviously the 767, you have a lot of large airline fleets still left. And the problem there is that these airlines don’t want to get rid of them right away. So it’s putting pressure on some operators to look elsewhere. For candidates that would make a good substitute for the 767 if they can’t get what they need today, but obviously these fleets will be available eventually, I think 767 will continue to be converted, but also a 330s 203. Hundreds are just starting to be converted and we’ll make a good medium freighter, and then once that feedstock from the 767 dries up, then I think the market will switch to the a 330 either the 200 300, but mostly the 300. On the large, wide body side, you really kind of left with the triple seven 813 passenger airplanes out there. So there’s a large feedstock. And then you also have some other models, the 200LR, which is what the production freighter is based on, there’s only 43 out there. So that kind of depends on when those few operators will release those fleets. But there’s not a conversion program that exists today. But certainly that that aircraft may make an attractive freighter for some operators. But as far as large fares, it looks like the triple seven 300 er has the feedstock available and a conversion program that exists today. And I think it makes it very good converted freighter. So it was at cargo FX conference in San Diego a couple years ago, October of 2019, that g Cass had announced this agreement with ai ai to convert the triple seven and launch the triple seven 300 vrsf. program. So I was just getting launched at that time, and now we’ve got aircraft pass midway through conversion. So we kind of expect that first one to come out some sometime in 2023. That will be the first one and then many more after that. So it habitats we’re interested in looking at this freighter a little more closely and look at the economics of how this converted freighter compares to the production freighter. Obviously the production freighter has been very, very popular and so we did get with G Cass they provided we asked them for fuel burn for 4000 nautical mile stage lengths, and they provided the fuel burn payloads. We provided all the cost data assumptions, and the analysis of how that would look compared to the production freighter and the 747 400 VCF. Obviously, these are different vintages. So we’re looking at the choice of buying a new production freighter and or acquiring a 2009 2010 triple seven 300 yard converting it comparing it to 747 400 BCF 1995. We did adjust for the honeymoon effect so we gave credit for the new freighter and penalize the older aircraft with aging. But when you plot just the cash operating costs, so this is a cash operating cost comparison, no ownership cost. The bigger airplane seven triple seven 300. ers f obviously has a larger trip costs being a bigger airplane, but it has the lower ton mile costs so better 10 mile cost higher trip cost the BCF higher Trip cost and higher time mile cost. That’s not looking that’s without ownership. But if you include ownership, then it totally changes the story, obviously, being lower to the left is where you want to be in that bottom left corner. And because you can obtain these triple seven, three hundreds, very good price. And of course, the lower cost of the 747 switches the economics and make these much better economics then compared to the production freighter, so we’re looking at densities is seven and a half pounds per cubic feet and feel at $2 a gallon, we pick seven and a half pounds per cubic feet, because that is basically what a FedEx or UPS or Amazon DHL, that’s going to be what their average density is going to be, they don’t carry the heavy payloads of 10 pounds per cubic feet. So it becomes a different story. If, if your requirement is to carry the heavy traditional freight 10 pounds per cubic feet, an average that then that story can switch to the production freighter or the 747. But if you’re at roughly nine pounds per cubic feet are less than the triple seven 300 er is going to have better economics. So that’s the winner at those densities and payloads. Again, if your operation is 10 pounds or more, you’re going to be better off with the production freighter. So we’ve seen a lot of news stories coming out about potential new freighters. And we saw cargo faxes, forecasts forecast and the need for large number of freighters and they are predicting that most of those would be new traders and roughly 150 would be converted traders. We have heard going to talk about launching a new triple seven, eight f potentially 787 dash nine F and then Airbus also looks like they want to launch in a 350 freighter whether that’s a 900 or 1000. You have guitar or want airlines that have been in the news recently about wanting Boeing to launch the triple seven, eight F and Airbus is right there. And it sounds like they’re ready to launch an A 350 freighter, but certainly that’s it may be the right time sometime soon with all the activity and interest in in dedicated freighters. But we probably won’t see these enter service until sometime between 2025 and 2030. Maybe closer to 2030 is probably the realistic timeframe. So in summary, we talked about how we saw traffic recovering and obviously that the story on the Texas domestic side is very good. And it’s a vaccinated vaccination story and you don’t need herd immunity to bring back domestic travel. But you do need it for international travel. So we will probably start to see some travel bubbles develop maybe between London and New York City. There might be some kind of vaccination record required for travel. And it will come back slowly. You know, I’m starting to travel internationally beginning in October. I’ve heard others making the same commitments, I think we will get back to traveling international and get back to more normal behavior starting in late fall. But it’s still gonna take some time to get back to that 2019 level. So we expect passenger narrowbody market values will return to base value in 2024. While why body values will return in 2025. Obviously the freighter values expected to remain stable the strong really until the next downturn you’ll have some softening of these premiums that we’re seeing to the base value as passenger wide body aircraft come back in the service. So again, we expect passenger why bodies to be Turn by 2025. And so you’ll have that belay capacity out there, the yields will come down, take some pressure off of the shortage of dedicated freighters. But a lot of these, these freighters values should remain strong for a long time. And we view the triple seven 300ERSF as a strong competitor to the production freighter, and we’ll make an excellent replacement for the 747 400 BCF. It will also replace the 747 Production 400 production freighter, however, the 400 production freighter has that nose loading capability that the BCF does not have. And so I think that’s gonna keep it around a lot longer, and probably have a much longer economic life because of that it’ll be able to carry the outsize freight. As far as the new freighters, I think, certainly, we can expect Airbus and Boeing to launch the new production freighters by 2030. And that wraps up my presentation, Jeff, and happy to, to answer any questions.

Jeff Lee 

Thank you, Doug. That was an insightful presentation, man, certainly a very interesting time. For everyone involved in phrases. Just as a general point, you were sharing that all the types printer types you were showing were above base value, just curious when was the last time that happened?

Doug Kelly 

Good question. I don’t remember. I’ve been around a long time. I don’t know if it’s ever happened.

Jeff Lee 

Yes. really fascinating. And just going back to the triple, seven 300 yard or the sea, because that’s in development that we’ll be seeing that soon. How values of feedstock friends changing? And, you know, how much the lower are they right now compared to before the pandemic?

Doug Kelly 

Well, I mean, the triple seven has been suffering, really from oversupply for a few years now. So as those first leases start expiring, those 12 year old airplanes coming off lease, doesn’t take that many to really kind of soften the market. And, and so some of the, the owners, you know, were had concerns, obviously, and we saw these rates kind of fall dramatically. So at one time, we were expecting, you know, a triple seven passenger plane to lease for 650, and then all sudden, they’re down to 450. And maybe today see some 383 80 to 450 is maybe where we see the market today. So we’ve had to adjust our base value curves down on that type. Some of those large list stores that have triple sevens, were wondering, what are we going to do with these aircraft and, and obviously g Cass lo started looking into the freighter conversion story and saw that it makes a pretty attractive freighter, since the growth in demand and freight has been low density freight. And again, if you’re if you need that 10 pounds per cubic foot density, then yes, 747 that production triple seven freighter is probably the way you should go. But, you know, I used to work at FedEx and the planning density FedEx was 8.2. They plan on 8.2. But they knew they were gonna get probably less than seven and a half kind of average density. And I don’t think that’s changed with the explosion of ecommerce. You’re talking about low dense freight and packages. Amazon’s the same way so you’ve got ups, Amazon, DHL, FedEx, UPS, DHL, Amazon all median lift and all really find low dense freight. So the triple seven 300 actually looks perfect for that type of operation. And just kind of helps it helps to those owners of triple sevens like g Cass, right, have a home, unable to utilize that, that asset a lot longer.

Jeff Lee 

There. I was wondering if you know these additional commitments, they turned out In some way, because of the depressed in mind and the, you know, early returns from passenger airlines, do you expect these triple seven 300 er values to remain depressed. And you know what to expect in terms of, you know, they’re one of their prospects going forward for, you know, for the passenger side?

Doug Kelly 

Well, we expect them to remain at these levels, they may hold steady for a while, obviously, Boeing’s had delays in the triple 7x program. So that triple 789 keeps getting seems to be keeps getting pushed out. So I think now they’re talking 2023 to enter service. And the thought was years ago that as Boeing starts delivering triple sevens, eights and nines, that, you know, now you have this glut of triple sevens. But now if you can’t get a triple 7x, then it looks now before the pandemic, it looked like, okay, triple 777-300ERs, might last a little bit longer. Now, with the pandemic, no one needs wide body lift right now. But you have those that have them, like Emirates, you know, turning them into prayers, you know, fine packages on their, their passenger airplanes, able to make money during these times on it. But that’s not a long term solution to that problem. So as we get out of the pandemic, and people start traveling internationally again, that’s obviously going to bring that belly capacity back and, and downward pressure on yields and alleviate this shortage of capacity. But I don’t see triple seven 300, Dr. Passenger values going up, maybe, maybe holding steady where they ar

Jeff Lee 

And there was a chart that you showed on the ESP 30 and showing it returning to base vary around 2025. Just talk about why that is and you know what you think, how you think about what impacts acquisitions for free to conversions?

Doug Kelly 

Well, you know, obviously, there’s been some that have been acquired by DHL for freighter conversion. But our forecast is based on you know, again, it’s, it’s turned out to be a vaccination story. And as we saw worldwide, it’s, you know, US has been doing well, Israel, UK, rest of the world has not really been doing well in vaccinations. And that’s not gonna allow international travel until people are comfortable, I feel safe. So you have to have a certain vaccination level up, I think, to return to the 2019 levels. And that’s going to take time, that’s not going to happen the next year too, so. But eventually we will get there. And those why bodies will return to service. And they’ll end up being this shortage at some point in time in the future, I’m pretty sure that the traffic’s gonna take off faster than we had anticipated at some point. And that will lead to a shortage and then all sudden, we’re scrambling for wide body aircraft and then that will put pressure on values to at least go up or stay steady again for a while. But we see that gradually happening by 2025. And the breakdown, as I showed from domestic and international travel and how we get back to 2019 levels by each year. That’s kind of how we’re forecasting traffic to go. But of course, that’s a forecast and things change. So if somehow the world gets vaccinated sooner than we predict, and people start traveling internationally again, then that’s a good thing and we expect a return to base value sooner than 2025. But we don’t expect that at this point in time.

Jeff Lee 

Although I suspect in the meantime, we might see more people taking opportunities to quietly 30s for full conversion.

Doug Kelly 

Yes, obviously DHL others have taken advantage of where values are so you saw how, how far we dropped a 330 values for a young airplane, right 10-year-old airplane. So at those levels, now suddenly, it makes it the aircraft attractive for freighter conversion and also You start, investors start looking at that and saying, Well, we know that the market is going to come back. They also agree, maybe it’s 2024 2025, somewhere in that range. And they look at that as a potential investment saying, If I buy at these levels, what kind of lease rate can I expect, and then lease it out at that level for a long period of time, and they can make a good return. So it all sounds, you know, at these prices, that makes an attractive investment. And so you have a lot of interest in those aircraft, because they are such young airplanes, and makes a good regional wide-body and intra Asia aircraft. And that’s where the growth in the future is going to be. So remember, you know, before the pandemic, everyone was talking about Asia, and that’s, that’s going to continue Indian China and Southeast Asia is where the majority of the growth is going to go. And Hb 30. makes for a good intraregional wide body aircraft.

Jeff Lee 

Yeah. And just lastly, of course, 737 mg freight says, and especially the 800 phrases, absolutely red hot at the moment, and how, how far have seen strong values fallen from your perspective?

Doug Kelly 

Well, we had the 800 at a premium, the base value before the pandemic, now it’s slightly below, depending on the vintage it can be anywhere from 10 to 20%, below base value. And we always thought that really the feedstock values had a yet 10 million or below to make that kind of an interesting freighter. Again, that was before the pandemic. So now with the shortage of freighters, you know, you don’t necessarily have to be below 10 million to make that an interesting trader, if you have a freighter that you converted at 14 million or 15 million. You know, it’s probably still a good deal right now, because of the rates you’re going to get. But yeah, I would say that you probably can get 737 800 below 10 million today, the older ones.

Jeff Lee 

And we’re seeing, you know, a number of new operators would end mg freighters. And obviously, most, if not all, leasing them. So, but I don’t imagine lease rates have dropped much, if at all?

Doug Kelly 

No, I, you know, the 737 800. You know, for years, we were kind of saying that. We thought those that would be first ones converted would be somewhere around 180,000 a month lease rate. You know, if you’re leasing a 737 400, you’re paying 120,000. really long term, you think okay, hundreds of bigger airplanes can’t be that much more than the 400. But the new ones being converted, might start out at 180 and then eventually dropped to 160. And that’s not the case there. They’re 182. I’ve heard some lease rates a little over 200,000. So which is kind of where the 757 used to be right? 757 used to be 210. Since the 1800s, a little bit smaller than the 757, you would expect lower lease rate 10 757. And so now you’re at that 200 level.

Jeff Lee 

Well, thank you so much, Doug for your insight, and I look forward to catching up with you at Cargo Facts symposium this October in person. Definitely. Thank you to our viewers and readers as well for joining us and do stay tuned to target facts for more on all things freighters and conversions.