Duffy warns of more flight cuts if government shutdown drags on

U.S. officials warned that the number of flight cancellations may need to double if the government shutdown drags out and air traffic controller staffing shortages worsen, potentially escalating travel disruptions as the country heads into one of its busiest travel seasons. U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said on Fox News today that regulators will continue to assess the strain on the aviation system and, if the data moves in the wrong direction, the current plan to reduce flights by 10% by the end of next week could grow to 15% or even 20%. With hundreds of services already trimmed and more on the way, air travel has become a flashpoint in the long-simmering clash between Republicans and Democrats over federal funding as President Donald Trump ramps up pressure to forge a deal. The Republican-led administration has said the reductions are necessary to keep flying safe as staffing shortages strain resources. At least one top congressional Democrat has called for more transparency to ensure the move isn’t politically motivated. Out of 25,375 flights scheduled for today, about 3% have been canceled as of 1 p.m. New York time, according to data compiled by aviation analytics company Cirium. United Airlines Holdings Inc., Delta Air Lines Inc. and American Airlines Group Inc. are the most affected. Reductions akin to a bad storm Despite the disruptions, there have been many worse days for U.S. air travel since January 2024, with today so far ranking 72nd in terms of cancellations, according to data provided by Cirium earlier. “Probably right now it’s more akin to a snowstorm or a stretch of bad weather than a catastrophic breakdown,” Tom Fitzgerald, an analyst at TD Cowen, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “The swing factor will depend on how long this lasts. I would say all the major airlines are going to feel this.” [caption id="attachment_57292850" align="aligncenter" width="1240"] (Courtesy/Bloomberg)[/caption] The full 10% reduction will create a $100 million-a-day drag for airlines, former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, the president and chief executive officer of industry trade group Airlines 4 America, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV Friday. Airlines have experience navigating disruptions such as storms or technical outages, and the carriers are likely to mitigate the fallout by cutting capacity on their less-busy routes. United has said reductions fall on regional and domestic mainline flights that don’t travel between its primary hubs. The reductions also don’t apply to international flights, according to the emergency order the FAA released Nov. 6. The directive does, however, ban commercial space launches and reentries during certain hours beginning Nov. 10. At New York’s LaGuardia Airport (LGA), business was running mainly as usual Friday as of 2:15 p.m. local time, with twenty flights to destinations including Oklahoma City (OKC) or Boston (BOS) canceled. Disruptions at other large airports were also manageable, with twenty-three canceled flights at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) near New York, forty-two at O’Hare International Airport (ORD) in Chicago and twenty-eight at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX), according to data from flight-tracking website FlightAware. Overall cancellations were more than 850. Frustration grows Still, the frustration over the government funding lapse is beginning to show with travelers, though they expressed sympathy for airport staff showing up without pay. “I admire them for coming to work,” said Dede Gonzales, who arrived at LaGuardia four hours before her flight after reading about the cancellations. “It’s terrible that they are working right now and are not getting paid.” Read more about the shutdown's effects on aviation here: FAA flight cuts will limit bellyhold capacity for air cargo US government shutdown could hamper air cargo ops The U.S. Transportation Department and FAA first announced Nov. 5 that they would order airlines to cut 10% of domestic flight capacity across forty major airports in an effort to relieve pressure on the aviation system. Nov. 6’s order requires carriers to start with 4% reductions on Friday and gradually increase to 10% by the end of next week. “I’m trying to get people where they want to go, and get them there safely,” Duffy said in an interview with CBS News on Friday. “If people want to question us, I would throw it back at them, open up the government. We have to take unprecedented action because we are in an unprecedented situation with a shutdown.” Later on Fox News, he said if staffing improves, it’s also possible the cuts go in the other direction, he said. “This is a moment-by-moment assessment,” he added. Airline exposure The big four airlines, which are exposed to the largest hubs in the country, are likely to be the most affected in November and December, according to a report from Sheila Kahyaoglu, an analyst with Jefferies. The 10% cut implies American, Delta, Southwest and United will have to trim overall seat capacity by roughly 6%. “We’re running a nearly full schedule today and the vast majority of our customers won’t be impacted,” American Airlines said in a statement today. The carrier, which is slashing about 220 flights each day through Nov. 10, said it’s still serving every market it did before the cuts. Still, CEO Bob Isom said in an interview with CNBC today that the capacity cuts have started impacting bookings for the all-important Thanksgiving period, when many Americans will be traveling. United Airlines said it will see about 510 services culled between today and Nov. 9, including 184 today. Delta said it was canceling about 170 flights for today, and Southwest Airlines Co. said it was removing roughly 120 flights from its schedule for the day. [caption id="attachment_57292851" align="aligncenter" width="944"] The forty airports selected for capacity cuts. (Courtesy/Bloomberg)[/caption] According to the Nov. 6 order, the FAA reviewed voluntary safety reports from October and found users of the aviation system were worried about its performance. More than 13,000 controllers have been forced to work without pay, taking both an emotional and financial toll. Shutdowns often coincide with more controllers — as well as TSA agents also working without pay — calling in sick. Cargo Facts LATAM 2026, the essential event for stakeholders in Latin America, will take place Feb. 10-12 at the Marquis Reforma in Mexico City. Learn more and register by Dec. 26 to take advantage of early-bird pricing.

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