87% of global imports will be ‘business as usual,’ despite US tariffs

U.S. imports account for 13% of global imports, meaning 87% of global imports are not subject to the recently imposed and threatened U.S. tariffs and will operate “very much business as usual, growth as usual and a stable performance going forward,” Maja Marciniak, senior economist at IATA, said this morning at the World Cargo Symposium in Dubai. These tariffs could create new markets and opportunities for the 87% of global imports unaffected by U.S. tariffs, she said. [caption id="attachment_57150422" align="aligncenter" width="1920"] Maja Marciniak, senior economist at IATA, speaks at the World Cargo Symposium 2025 in Dubai. (Courtesy/IATA)[/caption] “There will be shifts, there will be opportunities,” Marciniak said. “As the air cargo industry, we have to learn and take out our notes from the COVID times and really be flexible, be resilient, be adaptable and provide our customers with responsive solutions as they need us.” However, the situation is continuously changing, making it difficult to offer an international trade forecast, she said. “We're all just acutely aware of the trade war that is unfolding in front of our eyes," she said. “What I really want you to take away is the unpredictability of the situation that we're seeing.” President Donald Trump announced what he called reciprocal tariffs against dozens of countries earlier this month, but on April 9 he issued a ninety-day pause on implementation. Nevertheless, the United States and China have been going tit-for-tat with tariff increases. The U.S. has now imposed a 145% tariff on Chinese goods and China has imposed a 125% tariff on U.S. goods. Additionally, de minimis exemptions for China will end May 2. Under de minimis regulations, companies shipping goods into the U.S. are not required to pay tariffs on shipments valued at less than $800. Starting May 2, postal items from China that would previously have been covered by de minimis will be subject to a duty rate of either 30% of their value or $25 per item, whichever is higher. The flat fee will increase to $50 from $25 per item on June 1. Many air cargo industry stakeholders are taking a wait-and-see approach to the tariffs, which will lead to a slowdown of trade, she said. “The air cargo industry will definitely see some direct impacts around changing trade flows around possibly customs processing demands related to the de minimis changes,” Marciniak said. “We might see changes related to aircraft prices and the impact thereof.” U.S. tariffs and retaliation Trump had announced reciprocal tariffs ranging from 50% for Lesotho and the self-governing French territory of Saint Pierre and Miquelon to 11% for the Democratic Republic of Congo. All countries not subject to reciprocal tariffs will see flat 10% tariffs on goods, Trump said. All countries except China, Canada and Mexico are subject to the 10% tariff following the ninety-day pause on reciprocal tariffs. The following previously implemented tariffs against Mexico and Canada remain unchanged: Goods compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) have no tariff; Non-USMCA-compliant goods have a 25% tariff; and Non-USMCA-compliant energy and potash goods have a 10% tariff. Canada has since imposed a 25% tariff on some goods from the U.S. “Should all the tariffs that are currently put on pause be implemented, we would be looking at the highest rate of U.S. imports taxes, tariffs, that we have seen since the second world war,” she said. “And it’s not only that we're looking at high tariffs, but we're also looking at a high percentage of goods being subjected to tariffs. So, it's really a double impact of these new policies on trade.” China is one of the few countries to hit back at the U.S. with retaliatory tariffs. Many countries, including Mexico, Indonesia and Malaysia, have stated their intent to negotiate with the U.S. European Union Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last week announced that, for ninety days, the EU would pause “its countermeasures on unjustified U.S. trade tariffs to allow time and space for EU-U.S. negotiations,” an April 13 release from the EU stated. The EU this week released a list of U.S. goods that will be subject to retaliatory tariffs up to 25% effective July 14 should talks between the U.S. and EU fail. Factors affecting air cargo While global gross domestic product (GDP) slowed during the pandemic, it has seen a strong recovery, Marciniak said. Since 2022, global GDP has been stable at around 3.2% to 3.3%, and the International Monetary Fund expects it to remain stable for the next couple of years, she said. Regional variations have developing countries in Asia seeing 5% GDP growth this year and next, and the Middle East and central Asia seeing GDP growth of 3.5% to 4%. “The developed economies have slightly lower growth, and that’s completely normal with the U.S. being forecast in January at 2.7% and that's probably the prediction that is subject to the largest downward revisions,” Marciniak said. Growing GDP and low unemployment levels are contributing to air cargo’s success, she said. With higher personal disposable income, consumers are buying more products. “It fuels e-commerce, it fuels consumption, and that is then creating dynamic activity across supply chains,” she said. Air cargo is also being buoyed by lower fuel prices. “We have seen a large peak in fuel prices in 2022,” she said. “Ever since, we have seen steady decline, but at a high volatility. Currently, we're at around $67 per barrel for dated Brent and $85 per barrel for jet fuel, so it is still elevated compared to the pre-pandemic times, but slowly, slowly coming down.” The monthly average spot price for U.S. Gulf Coast jet fuel was the lowest since 1990 in April 2020 at 61 cents per gallon and was the highest at $4.12 per gallon in June 2022, according to the Energy Information Administration. The average spot price of U.S. Gulf Coast jet fuel in 2024 was $2.34, down 13.4% compared with 2023. “The past two weeks have seen quite noticeable drops in fuel prices, partially related to the concern of global economic conditions and concern that GDP will slow and consumption will drop,” Marciniak said. Register now for Cargo Facts EMEA, an essential regional event for industry stakeholders, on May 6-8 at the Shangri-La Bosphorus in Turkey.

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