Air cargo demand rises 18.4% in January

Air cargo had a strong start to 2024, with January seeing the highest year-over-year growth in demand since summer 2021. Demand, measured in cargo tonne kilometers (CTK), increased 18.4% YoY overall and 19.8% YoY for international operations, according to the January data released by IATA . Capacity, measured in available CTKs, increased 14.6% YoY overall and by 18.2% YoY for international operations. IATA attributed this to growth in international belly capacity, which rose 25.8% YoY on the strength of passenger markets. “This is a strong start to the year,” IATA Director General Willie Walsh said in the release. “In particular, the booming e-commerce sector is continuing to help air cargo demand to trend above growth in both trade and production since the last quarter of 2023.” The release highlighted the following operating environment factors: Global cross-border trade increased by 1% in December compared to November, when it fell 0.2% from the previous month. The manufacturing output Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) improved to 50.3 in January, surpassing 50 for the first time in eight months, indicating expansion. The new export orders PMI increased to 48.8, but remains below the 50 threshold, “suggesting a continuing yet decelerating decline in global exports,” according to IATA. Inflation in major economies continued to ease from its peak in terms of Consumer Price Index (CPI) in January, reaching 3.1% in both the United States and in the European Union, and 2.1% in Japan. However, “China’s CPI indicated deflation for the fourth consecutive month, raising concerns of an economic slowdown,” the release stated. China’s deflation rate of 0.8% in January was the lowest since the global financial crisis in 2009. “The counterweight to this good news is uncertainty over how China’s economic slowdown will unfold,” Walsh said in the release. “This will be on the minds of air cargo executives meeting in Hong Kong next week for the IATA World Cargo Symposium with an agenda focused on digitalization, efficiency and sustainability.” [caption id="attachment_57140621" align="alignnone" width="1024"] (Courtesy/IATA)[/caption] Asia Pacific Asia-Pacific airlines saw cargo volumes increase by 24.6% YoY, an improvement from December’s YoY increase of 18.5%. Carriers in the region benefited from growth in international CTKs on three major trade lanes: Africa-Asia, up 52.5% YoY; Middle East-Asia, up 29.5% YoY; and Europe-Asia, up 27.5% YoY. Capacity in the region increased 25% YoY, according to IATA. North America North American carriers had the weakest performance of all regions in January, with a 9.3% YoY increase in cargo volumes, an improvement from December’s YoY increase of 2%. Carriers in the region benefited from the North America-Asia trade lane growing 17.1% YoY and the North America-Europe trade lane growing 3.5% YoY. Capacity increased by 3.8% YoY. Europe European carrier cargo volumes increased by 16.4% YoY, nearly double December’s YoY growth of 8.6%. Carriers benefited from growth in international CTKs in the within-Europe market, up 18.4% YoY, and the Europe-Asia route, up 27.5%. European carriers were also aided by the 46.1% YoY growth in the Middle East-Europe trade lane. Capacity increased 12.5% YoY. Middle East Middle Eastern carriers recorded the strongest performance in January, with a 25.9% YoY increase in cargo volumes, up from December’s YoY increase of 18.3%. Carriers benefited from market growth in Middle East-Asia, up 29.5% YoY, and Middle East-Europe, up 46.1% YoY. Capacity increased 17.1% YoY. Latin America Latin American carriers saw a 13.4% YoY increase in cargo volumes, up from December’s YoY increase of 4.6%. Capacity rose 6.6% YoY. Africa African carrier cargo volumes increase by 17% YoY, up considerably from December’s YoY decline of 1.2% YoY. Carriers benefited from the 52.5% YoY growth on the Africa-Asia trade lane. Capacity was up 19.4% YoY. Register here for Air Cargo Next ’s free webinar, “The Role of Drones in the Future of Air Cargo,” on Tuesday, March 26, at 11 a.m. ET.

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