Asia Pacific air cargo market showing signs of recovery

A strong recovery in air cargo traffic from the Asia Pacific region to Europe and North America in the last two weeks of October has helped lift overall global volumes and average rates back into positive territory following months of gradual declines and a sharp dip in the first half of October. Globally, tonnages were up 2% for the weeks of Oct. 10 and Oct. 17, compared with the previous two weeks, while average worldwide rates were up 3%, “in an almost flat capacity environment,” according to the latest preliminary figures reported by WorldACD. This more optimistic picture of the sector’s current fortunes, particularly on a key trade lane, provides some contrast with Xeneta’s findings earlier this week , which highlighted a year-over-year decline of 8% in global volumes in October and concluded there was no peak season in sight, nor any signals to indicate an upturn in 2023. Volumes rise Across the two-week period in question, outbound volumes from Asia Pacific rose 11% compared with the previous two weeks. On a lane-by-lane basis, strong increases were recorded from Asia Pacific to Europe at 16%, to the Middle East and South Asia at 14% and to North America at 12%. Meanwhile, overall tonnages from North America dropped 5% and fell 7% and 4% to Europe and Asia Pacific, respectively. Elsewhere during the two-week period, Europe to Africa recorded the biggest drop in tonnages, declining 8%, consistent with last week’s WorldACD report. The strongest increase in tonnages was from the Middle East and South Asia to Asia Pacific at 21%, on a two-week-over-two-week basis. [caption id="attachment_57132779" align="aligncenter" width="1033"] Graph / WorldACD[/caption] On a lane-by-lane basis, rates from Asia Pacific to North America showed the most notable increase at 7%, but there was a steep drop in intra-Asia Pacific average prices at -10% on a two-week-over-two-week basis. “The double-digit volume increases ex-Asia Pacific towards the end of last month may hint at some strengthening of that market in the normally seasonally strong fourth quarter of the year, although it may be more of a bounce back from China’s Golden Week holiday in the first week of October, plus the reopening of some markets — including Hong Kong — following recent COVID restrictions,” WorldACD noted. Rates and capacity tick up Average rates globally are on a slight upward trend, driven by origins in Asia Pacific and Central and South America, both of which were at 4%, and Europe at 1%. Outbound rates from the Middle East and South Asia have shown a continuously negative trend for the past five weeks. “With only a modest corresponding uplift in rates, it still seems unlikely to be a sign of a significant Q4 peak season, and certainly nothing like the scale seen last winter,” the report added. Comparing the overall global market with this time in 2021, WorldACD found that chargeable weight for the past two weeks was down 15% YoY, despite a capacity increase of 4%. “Notably, tonnages ex-Asia Pacific are 22% below their strong levels this time last year and Middle East and South Asia origin tonnages are 26% below last year,” the report noted. Capacity from all the main origin regions, with the exception of Asia Pacific at -9% and Central and South America at -1%, is significantly above its levels this time in 2021, including double-digit percentage increases from Africa at 15%, Europe at 11% and North America at 9%. Worldwide rates are currently 17% below their levels this time in 2021 at an average of $3.41 per kilogram, despite the effects of higher fuel surcharges, but they remain significantly above pre-COVID-19 levels, WorldACD added. Join Air Cargo World for our next webinar, “Dangerous goods in focus: Shoring up air cargo logistics,” on Tuesday, Nov. 15, at 11 a.m. ET. Click here for more information and to register.

Asia Pacific air cargo market showing signs of recovery

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