Destination Unknown: What the future may hold for freighters

Three views from 2034

To get an idea of what the future will look like, the three forecasts first established a firm baseline and made their own assumptions about the rate of growth over the next 20 years, based on various external factors. Here are the basic methodologies established by each of the organizations, listed from most pessimistic to most optimistic:

• Airbus – From a global base of 1,633 freighters in 2014, Airbus, in its “Global Market Forecast” report, estimates a 4.4 percent annual rate of growth in airfreight demand, driven mostly by “emerging markets, where both general and express cargo” are expected to grow. This should result in a total of 2,687 freighters worldwide by 2034, Airbus predicted.

• ACMG – From a global base of 1,609 freighters at the start of 2015, ACMG, in its “Twenty-Year Freighter Aircraft Forecast,” expects a 4.5 percent annual rate of growth in demand, leading to 2,887 freighter units by 2034, which indicates a need for about 125 added freighters per year over the next 20 years to meet growth and replacement needs. The above factors are underpinned by an expectation of about 3 percent, per year, annual GDP growth.

• Boeing – From a global base of 1,720 freighters in 2014, Boeing, in its CMO report this year, predicts a 4.7 percent annual rate of air cargo growth, which will produce a fleet of 2,930 freighter aircraft by 2034. Growth requirements, plus the need to replace aging airplanes, will create a demand for 2,340 freighter deliveries over the next 20 years, the Boeing CMO said.

Overall results of the ACMG forecast are presented in greater detail in Figure 1, and divided into five-year increments over the 20-year forecast period. The chart shows the predicted growth of the freighter fleet in three size categories – narrowbodies, medium widebodies and large widebodies. ACMG’s forecast takes into account new-build freighter production, passenger-to-freighter (P-to-F) conversion activity, and the retirement of freighters from the existing freighter fleet.

Rather than basing forecasts on a continuation of annual growth in the range of 6 percent per year, which had been the long-term historic average before the 9/11 terrorist attacks, ACMG has taken into account other factors that affect the strength of the global economy, including globalization trends that drive airfreight demand, fuel price fluctuations and modal shift. The assumed 4.5 percent annual growth in demand acknowledges the correlation between the demand for air freight services and the strength of the global economy. “Historically, each 1 percent increase in global GDP produced about a 2 percent increase in both global trade and global airfreight demand, but use of a lower multiplier now seems appropriate,” the report said. “ACMG now considers a 1.2-1.6 ratio to GDP a more accurate predictor of airfreight demand.”