Destination Unknown: What the future may hold for freighters

Regional trends

Of particular interest to forwarders and logistics companies are some of the latest regional trends, which can provide guidance in determining where the most airfreight demand will come from in the next two decades.

Asia – Traffic has dipped in Asia of late, but the continent will continue to lead the world in average annual air cargo growth, with domestic China and intra-Asia markets expanding 6.7 percent and 6.5 percent, per year, respectively, Boeing predicted in its 2014 WACF report. More than 40 percent of all freighter deliveries during the 20- year forecast period will be to carriers in the Asia-Pacific region, the report said. Asia Pacific-based carriers will continue to receive a high proportion of large production freighters to serve their long-haul, intercontinental routes.

Air cargo markets linked to Asia – especially to the Pacific Rim countries – will lead all other international markets in average annual growth between 2013 and 2033, Boeing added. “Growth continues to strengthen and is now starting to return to the long-term trend,” the report said. The Asia-North

America and Europe-Asia markets will grow at an average 5.4 percent and 5.3 percent, per year, respectively.

Intra-Asia traffic is currently the fifth-largest air cargo market, forecast to grow faster than any other international world market, averaging 6.5 percent growth per year over the next 20 years. By 2033 this market will likely be the third largest air cargo market, according to Boeing’s WACF. The share of world air cargo traffic associated with Asia, including the domestic markets of China and Japan and all international markets connected to Asia, will increase from 51.3 percent in 2013 to 61.1 percent in 2033.

North America – According to Airbus, the freighter fleet demand in North America is mainly a replacement market, while the Asia-Pacific fleet is set to triple. But North America is expected to receive 30 percent of freighter deliveries over the next 20 years, said Boeing’s WACF report; most of those deliveries, of course, will go to express carriers FedEx and UPS. Historically, up to three-quarters of medium widebodies have supported express operations, in which relatively low airplane utilization makes converted freighters economically attractive.

Europe – Markets between this well-established region and Asia are projected to grow the fastest, at 5.3 percent, per year, between 2013 and 2033, which is faster than the predicted global average of 4.7 percent, per year, according to Boeing’s WACF report. The Europe to Latin America region is expected to grow at slightly above the global average (4.8 percent), while South-Asia to Europe is forecast to keep the same 4.7 percent pace. Growth for the next 20 years between Europe and the rest of the world, Boeing said, will be below average, including Africa-Europe (4.3 percent); the Middle East-Europe (4.0 percent); and Europe-North America (3.1 percent). Intra-Europe traffic will grow the least, at 2.0 percent, the report stated.

Latin America – Finally, currently sluggish air cargo growth in Latin America-North America flows is forecast to exceed the world average at 5.2 percent, said Boeing’s WACF.