End of cargo-in-cabin ops will further impact strained capacity

With sanctions placed on Russia-based carriers , lack of capacity will continue to be a key driver for air cargo, especially as every available freighter is already in high demand. At the height of the pandemic, close to 2,500 freighters and passenger aircraft deployed for cargo-only operations were in use. Of those passenger aircraft, around 400 had seats removed due to temporarily granted safety exemptions, Glyn Hughes, chief operational officer at The International Air Cargo Association (TIACA), said today during a webinar presented by aviation training platform Aeroclass. [caption id="attachment_99303" align="alignright" width="516"] Panelists during Aeroclass' webinar titled "Is air cargo still the industry hero?"[/caption] The recent decline of cargo-only passenger aircraft, paired with the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) ending cargo-in-cabin passenger flights July 31 , will add additional challenges for industry stakeholders looking to secure capacity. “There will be further challenges [even though] they can still fly those passenger aircraft for cargo, but not cargo-in-cabin, other than where it is already certified,” Hughes said. This includes under the seats, storage spaces and in overhead compartments. However, this method is not only very costly but inefficient, as loading takes longer, leading to longer turnaround times, he added. While cargo capacity is slowly coming back online through adjusted schedules and charter flights, it will not be the same as it was before the pandemic, according to Tim Lederer, senior director of global aviation regulatory affairs at DHL Express. As a direct consequence, freighters will be more important than ever, he added. But this raises the question of where the necessary freighters will come from. “To a vast extent, [freighters] come from passenger aircraft conversions, which is obviously something that we see” Lederer said. “But then again, we’re hitting the issue of limited conversions [and] shop availability in terms of how many aircraft can you actually put through a conversion house? Factory-built freighters [also face] limits in terms of what models are currently available.” Even after the slow return of some passenger travel, long-haul passenger operations will not fully recover for at least another few years, further delaying the needed return of widebody belly capacity, noted Audrone Keinyte, CEO at BBN Cargo Airlines Holdings and Bluebird Nordic. With the current forecast for passenger recovery predicted at around 2025, and considering that a large share of cargo was formerly transported in passenger aircraft bellies, freighters will continue to play a lead role moving forward until that time at the very least, TIACA’s Hughes said. Rising fuel costs In addition to capacity issues, the unprecedented spike in jet fuel prices remains an area of concern, said DHL’s Lederer. Fuel surcharges have been around since before the pandemic and airfreight stakeholders are looking to recover a vast majority of the increase through customer pricing, Lederer said. However, “there is a limit as to what customers are willing to pay for shipping,” he said. “As part of the crisis, it’s really a capacity game rather than the customer being confronted with an awful lot of choices.” Regardless of fuel increases, traditional airlines are unlikely to fold due to rising fuel costs, James Wyatt, general manager at aviation consulting business Aeroconcept and Aeroclass instructor, said during the webinar. Airlines may re-evaluate and trim costs surrounding commercial structure, including operations, management, staffing and infrastructure to help counterbalance increased fuel prices. Reasons for optimism Although current geopolitical issues have drastically reduced the already limited available capacity and caused a spike in jet fuel prices, the 2022 outlook for the airfreight industry remains optimistic as the Ukraine war continues to drive cargo demand. “If the [war] ends with further annexation of the East, which removes access to the Black Sea for the rest of Ukraine, then that means that seaports will not be accessible, and there will be a much greater focus on air cargo flights,” Hughes said. “Sadly, also does the withdrawal and end of the conflict. There are many withdrawal campaigns which result in destruction of airports to effectively impede recovery and rebuild, particularly in the east where it's needed.” The Air Cargo Tech Summit, the new airfreight logistics event presented by Air Cargo World , will take place live in Miami from June 6-7. Learn more and register here. This story has been updated to reflect the corrected number of passenger aircraft and freighters in use.

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