Freight forwarders cautious on reopening Hormuz

Voices across the airfreight forwarding community said today that they are cautiously monitoring the situation ahead of the formal signing of an agreement that could end the war between the United States and Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The signing is scheduled for June 19. [caption id="attachment_57297786" align="aligncenter" width="2556"] A Kuehne+Nagel-branded 747-8 freighter operated by Atlas Air (Courtesy/Kuehne+Nagel)[/caption] Although Kuehne+Nagel said it welcomes the proposed re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz, it is too early to say what that will mean for the air cargo market and jet fuel prices, the forwarder told Cargo Facts . “Any resumption of transits will depend on clear guarantees around safety, stability and operating conditions … ocean carriers are taking a cautious, step‑by‑step approach,” a Kuehne+Nagel spokesperson said. “Our immediate focus is on assessing the situation and what any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz means, while staying in close dialogue with carriers and customers to ensure continued, safe cargo flows in the region.” Forwarder DSV also told Cargo Facts that it is monitoring the situation. On June 15, the Airforwarders Association said in a release that the reported agreement is “a positive step,” but added that the details will be “critical.” “A lot could still change before the memorandum of understanding is expected to be signed … and the airfreight industry now needs clarity on how the Strait of Hormuz will reopen and free passage will be enforced,” the association said. Fuel fallout The strait’s closure has had a worldwide impact on the price of jet fuel, which peaked at a global average price of $209 per barrel in April, according to IATA’s Jet Fuel Price Monitor, updated weekly. The global average price fell to $138.86 per barrel — the lowest since the war began — for the week ending June 12. “By May 29, jet fuel prices had fallen back -24.8% from the previous month’s average according to Platts data published via the IATA Jet Fuel Price Monitor,” Neil Wilson, editor at airfreight industry data aggregator TAC Index, said in a blog post. “That was clearly a marked improvement, if still a massive +57.3% above the previous year’s average – and with prices firming up again in the first week of June. “All of that said, overall rates may have come off recent highs, but remained extremely elevated — with sources wondering how long jet fuel prices could keep falling if inventories continued to decline,” he said. Carrier fuel adjustments also are influenced by factors including fuel availability and individual carrier procurement strategies, according to Kuehne+Nagel. Another factor is speculation concerning the price of fuel itself, Mark Jacobsen, a professor of economics at University of California San Diego and a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, told Cargo Facts. “If I had to guess, I’d say that a reopening was being expected in the trading prices already and that recent announcements will just move the declines up a little sooner,” he said. “With so much uncertainty on both demand and supply, however, jet fuel is a tough market to speculate on for sure.” Cargo Facts Symposium 2026, the premier event for the freighter aircraft and air cargo industries, will take place in Nashville, Tenn., on Oct. 21-23. Find out more and register by Sept. 4 to take advantage of early-bird pricing.

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