Freighter operators share mixed views on 2025 peak 

Expectations for peak season remain varied in a year characterized by volatility and unpredictability, according to speakers at last week’s Cargo Facts Symposium 2025 in Nashville, Tenn. ATSG, parent company of ABX Air, Air Transport International, CAM and others, is tempering year-over-year growth expectations for this peak season, Chief Commercial Officer Todd France said during the opening discussion on the state of the market. [caption id="attachment_57292559" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Houston Mills of UPS speaks during a panel discussion at Cargo Facts Symposium 2025. (Photo/Cargo Facts)[/caption] “I don’t think it’s going to be the peak of 2024 if you really look at the volumes that have gone and moved globally,” he said. “There has been a little bit of a dip, about 3% to 4% going into September, which in my mind is an indicator, unlike last year, where the peak through the summer and through the third quarter continued to increase.” LATAM Cargo Chief Executive Andres Bianchi agreed. “I think it’s going to be a decent peak season but not as good as 2024,” he said. The success of peak season for LATAM will be based on the volumes of fresh produce the carrier can move from South America, Bianchi said, adding that adverse weather events can bring shipments to a halt. Air of uncertainty Assessing peak season demand remains a challenge due to the uncertainty created by geopolitical events globally, Emirates Senior Vice President of Cargo Planning and Freighters Nadeem Sultan said. “Nobody knows what’s going to happen,” Sultan said. “If you ask anybody, it’s very difficult to predict. For instance, if you look at the peak numbers, we see that rates out of key Far Eastern markets have gone up — not to the extent that perhaps they were lost, but we see a strong demand for charters.” While production and inventory levels have dropped, and widebody capacity is constrained, many carriers are challenged with delivering customer payloads amid shifting tariffs and global conflicts, he said. Being based in Dubai, Emirates suddenly had to come up with different routes and contingency fuel loads because of the Israel-Hamas war, which limited the cargo capacity on its freighter and passenger flights, Sultan said. Cargohold half empty or full Although ATSG and LATAM have lowered their projections for the 2025 peak season and Emirates’ outlook remains uncertain, other carriers such as UPS and Amerijet International Airlines are raising their expectations. “ I think we’re excited,” Houston Mills, president of flight operations at UPS Airlines, said during the discussion. “Peak season is our Super Bowl.” UPS begins to move cargo for the peak season in September from destinations around the world to the United States as the peak season nears its apex, which starts around Thanksgiving and continues to the end of the year, Mills said. This year, the express company is seeing results that are comparable to the 2024 peak season, after completing the transition of the U.S. Postal Service contract from FedEx, increasing its commitment to health care logistics and supporting e-commerce, he said. “E-commerce continues to be strong,” Houston said. “That’s going to be a big driver of the peak.” Amerijet, which supports UPS during the peak season, has seen cargo growth throughout the year, Chief Executive Joe Mozzali said during the discussion. “We’ve been actually moving higher than peak season volumes since the second quarter of this year, so we’re prepared for the higher volumes,” Mozzali said. The only challenge for Amerijet is receiving accurate forecasts on cargo volumes from freight forwarders and customers, but the airline has invested in additional warehouse space ahead of the peak season, he said. “I think we’re very bullish on peak,” Mozzali added. “I think we're ready.” See all the coverage of Cargo Facts Symposium 2025. Cargo Facts LATAM 2026, the essential event for stakeholders in Latin America, will take place Feb. 10-12 at the Marquis Reforma in Mexico City. Learn more and register by Dec. 19 to take advantage of early-bird pricing.

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