IATA: 2021 cargo traffic kicks off with annual growth despite short capacity

Story updated on March 3 to include comments from Kuehne+Nagel. Air cargo traffic in cargo tonne kilometers (CTKs) recovered to pre-pandemic levels in January 2021, with the International Air Transport Association (IATA) reporting a 1.2% increase for international CTKs and a 1.1% increase for the total market from January 2019 levels. Year-over-year traffic was up by an even more substantial 6.4% and 6.1%, respectively. January figures are often slightly inflated due to an influx of traffic ahead of a pause during the Chinese New Year holiday in February, and IATA acknowledged the necessity of waiting for February data in understanding the full traffic picture. However, the February traffic drop in 2021 is likely to be less substantial than in prior years, as sustained factory output over the holiday this year kept cargo moving during the normally slow period. The recent reliance on airfreight over ocean is also supportive of recent traffic figures, Kuehne+Nagel CEO Detlef Trefzger said during the company's fourth-quarter earnings call on March 3. The market is tightening due to "additional demand coming into the average networks from the so to say time-critical shippers that cannot rely on sea logistics anymore, as they have to wait in Long Beach, for example, 16 days to get their container unloaded in the port," Trefzger said. The table below shows the change in cargo traffic for the various regions compared with 2019 instead of 2020, which according to IATA would be “distorted by the extraordinary impact of COVID-19.” Cargo traffic change between January 2021 and January 2019 The manufacturing sector helped support airfreight demand during January, IATA noted in its market analysis for January. Looking ahead, economic indicators remain fairly supportive for ongoing improvements in airfreight performance. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks contributed to a pause in passenger aviation recovery, but the manufacturing sector has stayed strong. The global manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for January stood at 53.5, marking the fifth month in a row of global expansion in new export orders. There are nevertheless some headwinds that could negatively impact airfreight traffic in the months ahead. The additional COVID-19 outbreaks impacted export business in emerging markets and unfortunately, most of the positive performance was from developed markets. The EU and Germany have seen especially strong economic indicators. No nations classed as emerging markets saw highly supportive figures, and only India among those saw new export orders that were partly supportive of expansion. For more on January cargo load factors, see: Clive: Unusual January ‘peak season’ kicks off strong 2021 Even with support from stronger export demand, the January recovery is particularly impressive considering that available CTKs remained well below year-ago and 2019 levels across most markets. The Latin America and Asia-Pacific markets have remained especially challenged on the capacity front, and are down by 28.0% and 28.3% in ACTKs, year over year. North America has consistently reported the smallest decline in capacity, and in January reported an 8.6% YoY decrease and a 6.8% decrease from January 2019. Africa and Europe also reported relatively modest total YoY capacity decreases of 16.7% and 17.6%.

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