IATA: February saw slight improvement, but March likely to be ‘challenging’

Industrywide cargo traffic in cargo tonne kilometers (CTKs) rose by 2.9% year over year during February, but the International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects March figures to reflect the “challenging month” caused by the Ukraine-Russia war and lockdowns and factory closures in Asia. Compared with pre-pandemic levels in February 2019, traffic was up by 11.9%, with support from reduced COVID-19 disruptions outside of Asia during the month. With January and February data combined to compensate for the effects of the Lunar New Year holidays, traffic was 2.7% above 2021 levels, according to the latest air cargo market analysis from IATA. The most notable negative effects during February emerged late in the month on the Asia-Europe trade lanes in particular, according to IATA. That disruption accelerated during March with the exit of Ukrainian and Russian airlines from the cargo market and airspace closures on the trade lane. Some of the lost traffic can be made up elsewhere, especially through the Middle East, IATA noted. Other related factors are likely to weigh heavily on March traffic, IATA predicted. Among these are rising inflation levels and oil prices , with Brent crude oil closing at its highest value since 2008 in early March. The effects of higher inflation may already be weighing on new export orders, which are an indicator of air cargo demand, and IATA expects higher inflation to continue throughout 2022. North America International CTKs for North America-based carriers were up 5.5% YoY during the month, representing an improvement from January, when traffic declined by 0.9% YoY. The strongest improvement was seen on Asia-North America trade lanes, IATA noted. Total traffic increased by 6.1% YoY during the month. Asia-Pacific International traffic rose by 3.3% YoY in the Asia-Pacific region, while total traffic was up by 3.0%. March could present more challenges for carriers in the region following lockdowns in Shanghai and other cities in China. Latin America Carriers based in Latin America reported the strongest YoY traffic improvement of any region, with international CTKs up by 21.9% YoY and total market CTKs up by 21.2%. The improvement may stem partially from the end of bankruptcy proceedings, but also from the weaker annual comparisons for the region, which struggled to recover capacity throughout the year. International CTKs were still 0.7% lower than in February 2019, but IATA noted that international air cargo connectivity in Latin America is on a “steep upward trend.” Europe, Middle East, Africa European carriers reported 2.2% YoY growth in both international and total market CTKs and was the only region without month-to-month seasonally adjusted traffic growth. IATA attributed that to the impact of the war and expects further weakness in March. The Middle East was the only region to see a decline in traffic YoY during February, with international CTKs falling 5.4% and total CTKs down by 5.3%. However, that region is likely to benefit from traffic redirected to avoid Russian airspace. African carriers, meanwhile, reported modest improvements in international and total CTKs, at 4.7% and 4.6%, respectively. The Air Cargo Tech Summit, the new airfreight logistics event presented by Air Cargo World , will take place live in Miami from June 6-7. Learn more and register here.

IATA: February saw slight improvement, but March likely to be ‘challenging’

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