IATA predicts 2% increase in air cargo revenue in 2026

Air cargo volumes are expected to increase 2.4% year over year in 2026 to 71.6 million tonnes, with revenue increasing 2.1% YoY to $158 billion, according to data released this week by IATA. The air cargo industry has seen robust growth in recent months, driven by time-sensitive shipments and e-commerce parcels , according to IATA. It noted that cargo yields in 2026, expected to contract just 0.5% YoY, will remain about 30% above pre-pandemic levels, despite a broader slowdown in global trade. [caption id="attachment_57293623" align="aligncenter" width="2000"] (Courtesy/Menzies Aviation)[/caption] [Cargo Facts Consulting will release its 2026 forecast on Jan. 5.] Industry leaders expect expansion to continue into January and February. “We expect elevated demand through mid-December, then a short breather in early January,” Matt Castle, vice president of global product at C.H. Robinson, told Cargo Facts . “But late January and early February will likely bring another surge as shippers race to move goods ahead of Lunar New Year factory closures. Historically, that’s when capacity gets tight and rates climb.” Castle advised shippers to plan for Lunar New Year, which will be Feb. 17, 2026. “A little foresight now can save a lot of headaches later.” — Matt Castle, vice president of global product at C.H. Robinson Shippers should book four to five days in advance through mid-December, then use early January’s softer market to clear lower-priority shipments before the surge ahead of Lunar New Year, he said. Modest air cargo growth Despite a slight increase expected ahead of Lunar New Year, air cargo traffic in early 2026 is likely to see modest growth. “We expect demand to continue growing over Q1 2026, but at a moderate pace rather than as a sharp rebound, likely in the low single‑digit percentage range YoY, depending on trade lane and region.” — Amanda Rasmussen, chief commercial officer of DHL Global Forwarding And while the impact on air cargo from tariffs and the trade war in 2025 was more subdued than analysts had anticipated , that situation is likely to change in 2026, Xeneta Chief Airfreight Officer Niall van de Wouw said in a Dec. 5 release. “Some shippers have absorbed the increases and are yet to pass on these extra costs to consumers, but with stocks running low and inventory replenishment on the horizon, we expect to see more tariff impact on air cargo volumes next year,” he said. “U.S. consumer confidence is reportedly starting to fall, and higher prices next year are likely to exacerbate this sentiment." E-commerce in 2026 Analysts expect e-commerce to remain an air cargo driver in 2026, but to a lesser degree than in recent years. “ E-commerce volumes have proved resilient and a big driver of growth for 2025,” Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, told Cargo Facts . “We’ll likely see global volume growth driven by e-commerce continue for 2026, though the rapid pace of expansion since 2023 may slow as some markets become saturated.” Xeneta has begun to see flattish YoY e-commerce growth, which had not been the case for the previous two years, the ocean and airfreight rate analytics platform said. “After twenty-seven straight months of near 40% YoY growth, China’s total cross-border e-commerce sales were flat in October, based on the latest market data from China Customs,” van de Wouw said. “Even robust expansion from China to Europe, up 47% in October, was offset by declines to the rest of Asia, down 3%, and a dramatic 51% drop in e-commerce shipment volumes to the U.S. in this new post-de minimis environment.” Cargo Facts LATAM 2026, the essential event for stakeholders in Latin America, will take place Feb. 10-12 at the Marquis Reforma in Mexico City. Learn more and register by Dec. 26 to take advantage of early-bird pricing. Cargo Facts Asia 2026, the indispensable event for Asia-Pacific stakeholders, will take place March 23-25 at the W Shanghai. Learn more and register by Feb. 6 to take advantage of early-bird pricing. The inaugural Cargo Facts Routes and Airport Conference will take place April 27-28 at the Marriott Al Forsan Abu Dhabi. Learn more and register by March 13 to take advantage of early-bird pricing.

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