July air cargo traffic up nearly 6% ahead of potential dip

Air cargo traffic grew in July as shippers frontloaded goods ahead of the United States ending de minimis exemptions and implementing reciprocal tariffs. July’s air cargo traffic , measured in cargo tonne kilometers (CTK), rose 5.5% year over year and traffic on international lanes grew 6% YoY, according to data released last week by IATA. Capacity, measured in available CTKs, rose 3.9% YoY and rose 4.5% YoY for international operations. “A sharp decline in e-commerce, as the U.S. de minimis exemptions on small shipments expired, was likely offset by shippers frontloading goods in advance of rising tariffs for imports to the U.S.,” IATA Director General Willie Walsh said in the release. “August will likely reveal more clearly the impact of shifting U.S. trade policies.” External factors The release highlighted these operating environment factors: Global goods trade grew 3.1% YoY in June, the latest data available. Air cargo traffic in June grew 0.8% YoY. Global jet fuel prices in July fell 9.1% YoY but rose 4.3% month over month. Prices this year have remained below 2024 levels, reducing airlines’ operating costs. July’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for global manufacturing output fell to 49.7, its second dip below the 50-mark threshold since January. A PMI above 50 indicates growth and one below 50 indicates contraction. The PMI for global manufacturing fell to 49.1 in May , rebounded to 51.2 in June and has now fallen again. July’s PMI for new export orders remained in negative territory for the fourth month, falling to 48.2, “reflecting waning confidence amid U.S. trade policy uncertainty,” IATA said. [caption id="attachment_57291330" align="aligncenter" width="1328"] (Courtesy/IATA)[/caption] Regional performance All regions saw traffic growth in July, with Asia-Pacific carriers seeing the strongest YoY growth for the third consecutive month. North American carriers saw the weakest traffic growth at 0.7% YoY, an improvement from YoY declines in traffic — the largest of the regions — in May and June. By region YoY: Asia-Pacific carrier traffic grew 11.1% and capacity grew 7.3%; African carrier traffic grew 9.4% and capacity fell 0.1%; European carrier traffic grew 4.1% and capacity grew 4%; Middle Eastern carrier traffic grew 2.6% and capacity grew 5.9%; Latin American carrier traffic grew 2.4% and capacity grew 3.8%; and North American carrier traffic grew 0.7% and capacity fell 0.6%. Trade lane performance Air cargo volumes in July increased across most major trade corridors, except on the Asia-North America trade lane, which declined for the third consecutive month. “While much attention is rightly being focused on developments in markets connected to the U.S., it is important to keep a broad perspective on the global network,” Walsh said. “A fifth of air cargo travels on the Europe-Asia trade lane, which marked twenty-nine months of consecutive expansion with 13.5% year-on-year growth in July.” By trade lane: Europe-Asia grew 13.5% YoY, the 29th consecutive month of growth; Africa-Asia rose 12.1% YoY, ending a seven-month streak of contraction; Intra-Asia grew 10.3% YoY, the 21st consecutive month of growth; North America-Europe grew 9.6% YoY, the 18th consecutive month of growth; Middle East-Asia grew 8.5% YoY, the fifth consecutive month of growth; Middle East-Europe grew 0.3% YoY, ending a six-month streak of contraction; and Asia-North America fell 1% YoY, the third consecutive month of contraction. Register here for Cargo Facts ’ upcoming free webinar, “Air cargo route networks: Strategies for improved results and greater efficiencies,” on Tuesday, Sept. 16, at 11 a.m. ET. Cargo Facts Symposium, the quintessential event for stakeholders and key leaders in the global freighter and air cargo industries, will take place Oct. 22-24 at the Grand Hyatt in Nashville . Learn more and register today to take advantage of the early-bird rate before Sept. 5.

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