July cargo traffic data shows global growth ahead of uncertain peak

Global air cargo traffic grew 3.9% year over year in July, thanks to strong performance in the Asia-Pacific, European and North American regions. Traffic increased YoY in every region, with North America seeing the most significant growth by a slim margin, according to IATA’s July traffic and capacity update, released Aug. 31. [caption id="attachment_57298843" align="aligncenter" width="1090"] (Courtesy/IATA)[/caption] More broadly, global cargo traffic — measured in cargo tonne-kilometers — rose 4.7% YoY in July, while capacity — measured in available cargo-tonne kilometers — increased 1.7% domestically and 1.8% internationally, according to IATA. A disconnect between Asian and United States jet fuel pricing is posing challenges for carriers and wet leasing companies, John Peyton Burnett, founder of consultancy TAC Index, told Cargo Facts . “We are looking at fuel swings impacting the market this year,” he said. “Most of the pricing has been stable over the off-peak summer months. We heard this was primarily driven by firm e-commerce demand.” Despite fuel pricing, the outlook remains broadly positive, supported by manufacturing activity, export orders and global trade, IATA Senior Vice President for Sustainability and Chief Economist Marie Owens Thomsen said in the Aug. 31 release. “However, higher fuel prices, geopolitical tensions and tariff uncertainty will need to be watched carefully,” she said. Meanwhile, dedicated freighters have gained market share as belly-hold traffic has declined, possibly reflecting demand for larger specialist shipments and the operational flexibility that freighters provide, Thomsen said. Few new freighters are entering the market as others age out, Burnett said. “I think that is still one of the primary drivers for dedicated freighters. Older dedicated freighters are more impacted by high fuel costs and maintenance costs. But this is a story we all know.” Trade lane performance Trade lane performance continued to see bifurcation in July. Although most regions saw modest growth, those connected to the Middle East contracted. Asia-North America grew 9.2%, the sixth consecutive month of growth; Europe-Asia grew 3.1%, the forty-first consecutive month of growth; Europe-Middle East contracted 16.1%, the fifth consecutive month of contraction; Europe-North America grew 2.1%, the third consecutive month of growth; Middle East-Asia contracted 14.1%, the fifth consecutive month of contraction; and Intra-Asia grew 6.1%, the thirty-third consecutive month of growth. External factors The IATA report highlighted external factors affecting cargo traffic: Global trade increased 7.5% YoY; Jet fuel prices rose 12.2% month over month in July and were 56.9% higher than a year prior; and The Global Manufacturing Output Purchasing Managers’ Index fell slightly to 52.7 and the New Export Orders Index grew to 50, indicating support for air cargo demand. Though there is spare capacity, there might not be a major peak season this year, Burnett said. “There is a question mark as to whether the [data center] hyperscalers have used up all their budget for the year and may look to move cargo no matter the price, [though] that might be wishful thinking on the carrier side.” Another concern regarding peak season is the economic disruption in Europe caused by low water levels on the Rhine and other major waterways, Tom Crabtree, managing director at the Transport Research Advisory, told Cargo Facts . Reduced barge traffic within Europe is likely to affect the availability of goods during the holiday season, he said. “That could adversely affect the magnet for Asian goods moving into Europe, for example.” Even though Europe might see a weaker peak season, there will still be a peak season, Crabtree said. Cargo Facts Symposium 2026, the premier event for the freighter aircraft and air cargo industries, will take place in Nashville, Tenn., on Oct. 21-23. Find out more and register by Sept. 4 to take advantage of early-bird pricing.

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