Robust air cargo traffic expected to close out 2025

The air cargo industry has seen steady year-over-year traffic growth in the past few months, a trend expected to continue through the winter holidays peak season. Air cargo traffic grew 5.5% year over year in November, according to a Dec. 5 release from ocean and airfreight rate analytics platform Xeneta . IATA previously reported 4.1% YoY growth in traffic in October and 2.9% YoY growth in traffic in September . [caption id="attachment_57147063" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] (Courtesy/Canva)[/caption] October saw a record 25.4 billion scheduled cargo tonne kilometers (CTK), IATA told Cargo Facts . The previous record had been 24.5 billion scheduled CTKs in July. The monthly YoY growth between 2.9% and 5.5% is substantial considering that 2024 broke a three-year traffic record, growing 11.3% YoY . Xeneta estimates that air cargo traffic for 2025 will grow about 4% YoY. Driving growth Industry leaders had this year expressed skepticism that air cargo would experience a traditional peak season. In June, IATA lowered its 2025 cargo outlook to 69 million tonnes, down 4.8% from the previous outlook of 72.5 million tonnes. This revision was primarily based on the expected impact of reduced gross domestic product growth, which is “largely influenced by trade-dampening protectionist measures, including tariffs ,” IATA said. The current uptick in traffic is “more than just the holiday rush,” Matt Castle, vice president of global product at C.H. Robinson, told Cargo Facts . “Peak season is a big driver, but we’re also seeing strong demand from sectors like cryptocurrency and AI. These shipments are high-value and time-sensitive.” — Matt Castle, vice president of global product at C.H. Robinson E-commerce continues to drive demand, especially on the North Asia-Europe trade lane, Castle said. DHL Global Forwarding expects moderate growth in global air cargo traffic in the fourth quarter, Chief Commercial Officer Amanda Rasmussen told Cargo Facts . This will be driven by resilient consumer spending, e-commerce, electronics and pharmaceuticals, while automotive and other industrial sectors are likely to remain subdued, she said. “November is one of the strongest months for airfreight, particularly ex-Asia,” Rasmussen said. “We saw elevated volumes out of China, Thailand and Vietnam in November, for example, but would not characterize them as out of the norm for this time of year.” Effects of trade war Some stability has returned to trans-Pacific flows following the recent U.S.-China trade agreement, Castle said. The United States lowered certain tariffs on Chinese goods , which had been at 20%, to 10% effective Nov. 10, and extended its suspension of reciprocal tariffs on Chinese imports through Nov. 10, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump announced Nov. 1. “We are now seeing studies on the impact of actual implemented U.S. tariffs, and, despite all the noise, the global average seems to be in the 10% to 12% range and not the 30%, 40%, 50% or 100% levels that were threatened in April,” Xeneta Chief Airfreight Officer Niall van de Wouw said in the Dec. 5 release. “While the impact is there and it is unsettling for the airfreight market, it’s not as dramatic as was feared and is not yet hitting consumer demand to a concerning level.” Trans-Pacific traffic contracted YoY since the U.S. ended the de minimis exemption for China in May and the rest of the world in August, but rate of contraction closed from double digits in May to less than 2% in October, Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, told Cargo Facts . “This suggests that volumes — mostly from e-commerce platforms adjusting to the new rules — have recovered, maybe not to pre-de minimis suspension levels, but more than a lot of observers had probably expected,” he said. Shifting trade lanes While global cargo air traffic is up in general, the Asia-North America trade lane has seen six consecutive months of contraction through October, according to IATA. In October, the lane’s performance fell 1.4% YoY, making it the worst-performing trade lane by YoY change. “E-commerce volumes on the largest China-U.S. trade lane have decreased, but we have seen shifts of volumes onto other lanes, such as Asia Pacific-Europe and to the Middle East and Latin America,” Rasmussen said. Most other trade lanes have seen growth, especially Asia-Europe, which has grown for thirty-two consecutive months through October. The Asia-Europe trade lane saw the best performance in October with YoY growth of 11.7%. “Asia-Europe is strong with e-commerce and general goods competing for limited space,” Castle said. “And on Europe-North America, we’re seeing demand spike for electronics, pharmaceuticals and e-commerce, especially mid-December as retailers push final holiday inventory.” Across the board, DHL Global Forwarding is seeing strong growth in the data center logistics industry “where a massive surge in capital investment is translating into strong demand for airfreight services,” Rasmussen said. Cargo Facts LATAM 2026, the essential event for stakeholders in Latin America, will take place Feb. 10-12 at the Marquis Reforma in Mexico City. Learn more and register by Dec. 26 to take advantage of early-bird pricing. Cargo Facts Asia 2026, the indispensable event for Asia-Pacific stakeholders, will take place March 23-25 at the W Shanghai. Learn more and register by Feb. 6 to take advantage of early-bird pricing. The inaugural Cargo Facts Routes and Airport Conference will take place April 27-28 at the Marriott Al Forsan Abu Dhabi. Learn more and register by March 13 to take advantage of early-bird pricing.

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