The Power 25: How long can the good times last?

CAN THE GOOD TIMES LAST?

Most of the 3PLs who spoke to Air Cargo World were equally optimistic about the rest of 2017, but also cognizant of the instability of the markets and the vulnerability of airfreight to outside forces – both economic and political. “The economy continues to rebound here in the U.S.,” Armstrong offered. “Hopefully we will have a better 2017. I think it’s a good start. It seems like the Asia-Europe trade lane is still pretty solid.”

“We’ve seen demand increase substantially out of Asia as inventory levels in the U.S. have declined and an increase in production,” said UPS’ Lund. “Through targeted efforts on key lanes and industry groups, we outpaced the industry growth in the first quarter of 2017. We expect growth to continue throughout the rest of the year as the market economy remains strong, yet we do see that inventory levels have peaked.”

At Dachser, Stroh said the early rise in demand for airfreight in Q1 2017 “puts us into a positive mood for the rest of the year.” But he cautioned that there are many unpredictable variables ahead, such as oil price fluctuations, as well as legal and economic changes.

DHL’s Appel said he was optimistic about the world economy, adding that “strongly rising consumer confidence suggests that airfreight growth will remain. As usual the trans-Pacific outbound Asia will be strong as well as the trading between Asia and Europe in both directions. E-commerce is an important growth engine for air cargo demand and it will pick up momentum.”

Addressing the North American market, “we didn’t get the Trans-Pacific Partnership passed,” Armstrong noted. “But maybe someone within the Republican Congress is going to come up with a replacement for that, if not in 2017, than in 2018, to help open some of the trade with Southeast Asia. We’ll keep our fingers crossed.”

Armstrong ended on a hopeful note. “If things start to happen negatively on the business side, then that puts a lot of political heat on the politicians relatively quickly,” he said. “You can only screw with business so long.”

(Charles Kauffman and Lewis King also contributed to this article.)

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