Consultant Insight: Pilot shortages may hamper air cargo recovery

As the economy recovers from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and more people are vaccinated, air travel is picking up and creating more capacity for freight. However, as capacity returns to the market, pilots are not returning at the same pace, thus endangering air cargo capacity recovery. [caption id="attachment_69752" align="alignright" width="298"] Cathy Roberson, Cargo Facts Consulting senior consultant and Air Cargo World columnist[/caption] According to IATA’s latest figures, for April, available freight tonne kilometers for the total market were up 49.4% from April 2020 and down only 9.7% from April 2019. For North American airlines, it’s an even better picture, up 38.8% from April 2020 and up 5.8% from April 2019. Meanwhile, year-to-date through May, the number of air transportation employees is down 12.6% as compared to the same period in 2020 and down 17.1% compared to the same period in 2019, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prior to the pandemic, the pilot shortage was a concern for airlines and freighters. The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) reported in 2017 that there were 609,000 pilots in the U.S., down 30% from 30 years ago. The pandemic briefly cut the demand for pilots. However, according to an Oliver Wyman report , “With the global nature of this shock, we believe 25,000 to 35,000 current and future pilots may choose alternative career paths over the next decade.” Additionally, many airlines relied on early retirements to reduce costs, which permanently decreased the supply. “A lot of luster in this job has been lost,” Captain Bob Kirchner, trustee for Teamsters Local 2750, told Air Cargo World , citing quarantine and invasive testing requirements during overseas flights since the pandemic began. As demand for air travel picks up, airlines are grounding flights due to not enough pilots. American Airlines, for example, announced that it would cancel about 1% of its flight schedule through mid-July, due to June weather problems that consumed crew hours as well as an ongoing labor shortage. Over the weekend of June 18-21, around 400 flights were canceled, about half due to crew shortages. Earlier this year, Delta Air Lines canceled almost 100 flights over the Easter weekend due to a pilot shortage. According to Delta, the shortage was due to a high percentage of airline staff who had vaccinations planned. The FAA requires pilots to wait 48 hours after COVID-19 vaccination before resuming flightcrew duties. Passenger airlines are not the only ones to feel the pilot shortage pain. All-cargo airlines are hiring as well. As a result, there is increased competition within the airline industry to attract pilots. According to Kirchner, Atlas Air, a subsidiary of Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings, has lost 183 pilots since Jan. 1 due to retirement or voluntary leave. “We think 240 to 290 Atlas pilots will leave by the end of this year,” Kirchner said. If that estimation comes true, that would represent an 11.5% to 13.9% reduction in the number of Atlas pilots. As of May 31, Atlas employed 2,82 pilots. As the aviation industry recovers from an almost catastrophic 2020, pilots have become highly sought after and have more options to move from one airline to another for better pay and other benefits. Airlines are subsequently stepping up their recruiting efforts to fill out their pilot rosters. Delta Air Lines plans to hire 1,000 pilots by next summer, while Frontier plans to hire 100 by the end of this year and United Airlines will hire up to 10,000 pilots by 2030. The pilot pipeline must also be shored up — due to the closure of many flight schools last year, ramping up training and attracting new students may not benefit airlines in the short term, but it will be imperative to keep the airline industry moving forward.

Consultant Insight: Pilot shortages may hamper air cargo recovery

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