IATA: October airfreight demand resilient despite supply chain congestion, labor shortages

[caption id="attachment_97574" align="alignright" width="442"] (Photo/Frankfurt Hahn Airport)[/caption] Global airfreight traffic in October increased 9.4% compared with the same month in 2019, which was roughly flat with September’s reported 9.1% increase. Despite October marking the start of the typical peak season, potential growth may have been impacted by ongoing supply chain congestion, labor shortages and inflation that have contributed to a slowdown in global manufacturing activity. However, yearend holiday demand has businesses turning to airfreight, boosting overall cargo activity. Air cargo rates have also been rising during the past four months, according to October analysis from the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Seasonally adjusted (SA) rates for October, including surcharges, increased 3.3% month over month and were above the May 2020 peak . However, airfreight remains affordable compared to sea freight. Despite slowdowns in manufacturing activity and trade, as well as capacity challenges and rising rates, airfreight continues to be favorable compared to other modes of transport due to its timeliness, according to IATA. Global capacity, measured in available cargo tonne kilometers (ACTKs), remained strong in October and was down only 7.2% compared with the same month pre-pandemic, IATA reported. This is the second consecutive month of airfreight capacity improvements as September saw an 8.9% decrease compared with a 12.2% decrease in August , which was impacted by disruptions in the Asia-Pacific region. The increase in capacity continues to be driven by the Asia-Pacific and European regions, as well as ACTKs onboard passenger aircraft and cargo-only passenger flights. In turn, industrywide cargo load factors reached 56.1% in October, up 8.5 percentage points above the same month pre-pandemic, IATA reported. Meanwhile, the international cargo load factor was at 64.1%, up 10.7 percentage points compared with October 2019. North America International CTKs for airlines based in North America were roughly flat with September, with IATA reporting a 18.9% increase in international CTKs compared with the same month in 2019. This is due to strong inflation, which was at 6.2% in October, that threatens to impact airfreight demand by contributing to a slowdown in manufacturing, as well as the slowdown in manufacturing activity and export orders in the U.S. However, retail sales continue to drive airfreight demand. Africa, Middle East, Europe Airlines based in Africa saw a 26.7% increase in international CTKs compared with the same month pre-pandemic, slightly less than the 34.6% increase posted in September, according to IATA. Meanwhile Middle Eastern carriers saw only a 9.4% increase in international CTKs compared with October 2019, whereas September reported an 17.6% increase. The significant month-to-month change is due to declines in traffic on routes like Middle East-Asia and Middle East-North America. International CTKs for European carriers continued to grow, posting an 8.6% increase compared with pre-crisis levels in 2019 due to resilient manufacturing activity and inflation. However, inflation in Europe remains less than in the U.S. Asia-Pacific Asia-Pacific airlines saw international CTKs increase by 7.9% in October, compared with October 2019, IATA reported. The Europe-Asia trade lane was a large contributor to the growth due to the lifting of some travel restrictions, and in turn, the reopening of passenger travel. Belly capacity between Europe and Asia was down 37.9% in September, whereas in October capacity was down only 28.3% compared with October 2019. Latin America Compared with September, Latin American carriers saw a small improvement in international CTKs, reporting a 6.6% decline in October. IATA further reported that several routes, including North to South America, which was up 22.2% in October, have been performing well. However, the positive performance is based on segments instead of airlines’ region of registration, suggesting that regional airlines have lost market share to other carriers, according to IATA.

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