May cargo volumes track pre-pandemic levels, despite capacity crunch

Despite persistent capacity shortages, average cargo volume year to date through May 2021 is 20% higher than in 2020, and just 1% below 2019 volume, according to a report from data aggregator WorldACD. However, the data also demonstrates why averages can be misleading as the pandemic has complicated annual comparisons. According to WorldACD’s data, year-over-year volume growth decreased to 33% in May from 53%in April 2021. While that may appear to be a significant contraction, it can be mainly attributed to all-time low volume levels in April 2020, leading to inflation of 2021’s numbers, according to the report. [caption id="attachment_88715" align="alignright" width="450"] Photo/Dachser[/caption] A closer look at the geographic breakdown of the WorldACD data, however, reveals that impressive recovery has not occurred evenly around the globe. Origin regions of Africa, Europe, and Middle East and South Asia (MESA) are below 2019 volume levels, with MESA down a full 20% over May 2019 levels. Asia Pacific, Central and South America, and North America are above 2019 volume levels for May. In terms of yield, the Asia-Pacific region was up 108% compared to the same period in 2019. MESA is up 81% for the same period, and North America is up 24%, the lowest of any region. Worldwide, yields were up 77% compared to May 2019. Meanwhile, revenue was up 76% worldwide compared to May 2019. The Asia-Pacific region once again led the way, with revenue up 125%, while Africa was up just 24%. No other region even approaches Asia-Pacific’s revenue increases, instead hovering between about 30% and 60%. Rates and yields were supported by the demand recovery that has outpaced the return of lost bellyspace capacity, according to analysis from the TAC Index . Regarding the contraction in global volumes from May 2019 to May 2021, both market uncertainties and extended holidays may have been partially responsible, according to a report from Clive Data Services. Looking forward, June is likely to see lower volumes than May, in line with month-over-month trends during the past decade, according to WorldACD data, 2020 notwithstanding.

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