The narrowbody freighter fleet part III: 757-200F dominates in express

Today we conclude our analysis of the worldwide fleet of narrowbody jet freighters with a look at the fleet on a type-by-type basis, with a focus on express vs. general cargo, and then by regional distribution. You can read part I on the overall composition of the fleet here , and part II on the passenger-to-freighter conversion market here . Turning to airframe types dominating today’s narrowbody freighter fleet, we begin with a breakdown of the overall composition on a type-by-type basis. The active narrowbody fleet is dominated by three types: The 757-200F accounts for 45.6% (307 of the 673 total), followed by the 737- 400F (20.1%, or 135 freighters), and 737-300F (18.6%, 125 units). 727-200Fs – which once dominated the narrowbody fleet – now account for only about 5.8% of the fleet, down from 7% in March 2018. Although the programs are waning with the introduction of the NGs into the fleet, the numbers of 757-200s and 737-400s will continue to increase for at least a couple of years. It is unlikely we will see many more 737-300s converted, but the type remains fairly popular as a freighter in China. Other types now in their sunset years, with between four and twenty-one freighters still operating, include the 727-100Fs, DC 9Fs, 737-200Fs, Tu-204s, and BAe 146QTs. The number of MD-80Fs in operation will grow for at least the next few years, but probably only at a rate of three or four each year. For which operator types are the 673 narrowbody freighters flying? As with widebody freighters, many of them are in express operations directly with integrators such as FedEx, UPS, DHL, China Post, SF Express, and YTO Express, as can be seen in the operator breakdown in Part I. But that first glance does not fully represent the importance of the express and postal business to the narrowbody fleet, because many of the smaller airlines in the list (and among those carriers operating three or fewer narrowbodies) operate their freighters for at least one of the express companies and national postal services. As the above chart shows, 440 of the 673 narrowbody freighters currently in operation are flying for express companies or postal services. The 757-200F is by far the leading narrowbody aircraft operated by or for express companies, and 93% of the 307 in service are operated by or for express companies. Most of those not operating full-time for or on behalf of express companies are in smaller freighter fleets like Icelandair Cargo’s or CygnusAir’s, which offer a mix of scheduled and charter flights using the 757Fs. Among other leading or new types in service for express companies are 70% of 737-400Fs; 37% of 737-300Fs; and 44% of 737-800Fs (though this figure could increase exponentially if Amazon expands its 737F operations). Overall, 65% of narrowbody freighters in service today are operated by or for the express companies and postal services. On a regional basis, considering only those types with active conversion programs, fleet distribution is largely unchanged year-over-year. About 40% of the fleet is in North America, down from 41% last year, thanks primarily to the large 757-200F fleets operating with FedEx and UPS in those express giants’ domestic networks. The Asia-Pacific region’s share of the fleet is unchanged y-o-y at 24%, with most of those flying for SF Airlines and China Postal Airlines in support of growing domestic e-commerce and express demand. Europe – where the other global express giant, DHL, is located – has the largest remaining share of the global fleet, with 23% of the narrowbody jet fleet, up from 21% in 2018. The remaining 12% are split among the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa. In summary, despite year-over-year flatness in the narrowbody freighter fleet size, with many new conversion programs for new types kicking off or ramping up during the next year, we are likely to see new operators entering the scene in the near future. While FedEx, the largest operator, has prioritized fleet renewal over expansion, Amazon’s entrance into the narrowbody freighter scene is likely to inject new life into a space that previously prioritized capacity replacement over growth. Although redeliveries of the 737 NGs got off to a fairly slow start in late 2017 and through 2018, redeliveries (and potentially new orders) are likely to take off in 2019 and 2020. The current and future composition of the narrowbody freighter fleet will be a major subject of interest at Cargo Facts Asia in Shanghai, 15-17 April. In addition to a session devoted specifically to narrowbody passenger-to-freighter conversions, we will also have a presentation from Cargo Facts Consulting’s Managing Director, Frederic Horst , on this year’s Twenty-Year Freighter Forecast. For more information about Cargo Facts Asia, or to register, go to CargoFactsAsia.com .

The narrowbody freighter fleet part III: 757-200F dominates in express

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