CLIVE: Rates continue steady drop with slowing demand and rising capacity

The airfreight industry entered Q3 with a 9% year-over-year decline in volumes globally, but with hope of lower airfreight rates as prices fell month over month in July. Global capacity rose 4% YoY in July but remains 11% lower than 2019 levels, according to today’s update from CLIVE Data Services. CLIVE’s dynamic load factor — a measure of weight and volume flown compared with available capacity — for July dropped 8 percentage points YoY to 58% with the added capacity but was only 3 percentage points lower than July 2019. [caption id="attachment_57131673" align="aligncenter" width="666"] Courtesy of CLIVE by Xeneta[/caption] Airfreight rates are declining compared with YoY analyses of June and July, but are still 121% higher than those in July 2019 and 11% higher YoY, according to the report. However, January 2022 had rates 156% higher than the same month in 2019, indicating a drop of 35 percentage points in overall 2022 to 2019 rates. “From a rates point of view, indicators suggest the market has yet to bottom out,” Niall van de Wouw, chief airfreight officer at Xeneta and co-founder at CLIVE, said in the report. Van de Wouw pointed to a significant number of global challenges creating “dark clouds hanging over the air cargo industry,” including the war in Ukraine, the rising cost of living, and operational challenges among airlines and airports due to labor shortages in ground staff. The trans-Atlantic region is seeing the largest drop in airfreight rates, connected to the rebound in summer passenger travel , but the trans-Atlantic load factor dropped as well, indicating movement away from freighter capacity and into bellyhold, according to van de Wouw’s analysis. “It’s clear that airlines are following the market very closely to ensure they are deploying their assets in the best possible way because the market is moving quickly,” he said.

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