European traffic to stay below pre-pandemic levels

Airfreight traffic in Europe is not expected to recover to 2019 levels until after 2024. This, according to a seven-year forecast issued this week by the European Organization for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL), an intergovernmental organization headquartered in Brussels, which sets three possible scenarios: An optimistic one, showing recovery to 2019 levels during 2023; A pessimistic one, with recovery after 2028; and A baseline one, which foresees recovery in 2025. Year to date, European airport traffic remains at 82% of 2019 traffic levels. “We have seen strong demand this summer, but this has been held back both by the capacity of the sector to handle the rapid growth and also by the impact of the war in Ukraine,” Eamonn Brennan, director general at EUROCONTROL, told Air Cargo World . [caption id="attachment_57132272" align="alignright" width="365"] Photo/Schipol[/caption] “As a result, we expect to see about 9.3 million flights this year, 49% more than in 2021, but still 16% fewer than we had in 2019,” Brennan added. “We are optimistic about traffic recovering to around 92% of 2019 levels next year. But there are still significant risks that could affect the recovery.” The most optimistic scenario envisages moderate GDP growth , a limited impact on demand from inflation, passenger confidence and limited capacity constraints in 2023 at airports. The pessimistic scenario considers the impact of several risk factors, including a number of countries in recession in 2023, which will strongly impact demand for travel; inflation; COVID-19; alternatives to business travel; environmental concerns; and staffing or capacity issues among carriers and airports. The baseline scenario assumes weak GDP, with inflation — including jet fuel prices — affecting demand and lowering passengers’ propensity to fly. Post-pandemic recovery Restrictions on Ukrainian, Russian, Belarusian and Moldovan airspace are likely to remain until 2028 due to the impact of the war in Ukraine, with the cargo segment strongly impacted by constrained operations of key cargo carriers, according to the forecast. Post-pandemic recovery shifts the focus to COVID-19 prevention with limited travel restrictions, according to the report. Long-haul flights are recovering well in 2022, apart from the Asia-Pacific region and South Atlantic flows. Full restoration is expected to occur in 2023, the report stated. However, staff shortages experienced in summer 2022 may continue into 2023, affecting the capacity of airlines and airports and impacting the global supply chain and cargo flights, according to the report. The baseline scenario, which is the most likely according to the forecast, said some airlines and airports could experience staffing or capacity issues next year, but to a lesser extent than in 2022. Global cargo output could see a slight increase next year. Join Air Cargo World for our next webinar, “Dangerous goods in focus: Shoring up air cargo logistics,” on Tuesday, Nov. 15, at 11 a.m. ET. Click here for more information and to register.

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