767F takes the back seat, 777F leads widebody fleet expansion

Although 2019 was a year in which we saw air cargo volumes decline year over year consistently and consecutively, the overall number of in-service widebody freighter aircraft still managed to grow. In mid-January 2020, we tallied 1,176 widebody jet freighters in commercial service worldwide, with seventy-eight carriers. This represents an increase of fifty-two aircraft, or 5%, compared with the total a year ago. Following on from last year, the global widebody fleet again reached a new high in January 2020. Airbus and Boeing both delivered record numbers of widebody passenger aircraft with large cargo-friendly bellies in 2019, so the continued growth of the widebody freighter fleet reinforces the notion that belly cargo and main-deck capacity do not overlap, for the most part. The 777F led the way in terms of numbers added in 2019, at twenty-seven, or 17% more than the previous year, unlike the period from January 2018 to January 2019, during which carriers added more production 767-300Fs than any other type. The production 767-300F wasn’t far behind, with twenty-one more aircraft in service than a year ago. The chart below outlines the in-service widebody freighter fleet for operators with four or more aircraft. But should fleet growth against the backdrop of a sluggish market be confounding? Perhaps not. As one data services startup suggests, the traditional metric of measuring demand against capacity by weight may no longer for entirely appropriate for today’s air freight market. According to CLIVE Data Services, air cargo load factors would be more accurate if they were based on volume, particularly because e-commerce shipments are becoming increasingly less dense while newer aircraft are capable of lifting more weight. Applying this dynamic load factor results in load factors of more than 60% throughout 2019, in contrast with the sub-50% average that IATA reported for the year. Following on from last year, the global widebody fleet again reached a new high in January 2020. Even with Airbus and Boeing both delivering record numbers of widebody passenger aircraft with large cargo-friendly bellies in 2019, the fact that the widebody freighter fleet continued to grow reinforces the notion that belly cargo and main-deck capacity do not overlap for the most part. Unlike the period from January 2018 to January 2019, during which carriers added more production 767-300Fs than any other type, the 777F led the way in terms of numbers added during the course of 2019, at twenty-seven, or 17% more than the previous year. The production 767-300F wasn’t far behind, with twenty-one more aircraft in service than a year ago. On the other hand, while the production 747-8F and 747-400F fleets grew by 12% and 18%, respectively, last January, this year saw increases of just 6% and 1%. Also interesting is that several carriers reactivated older 747Fs in 2019 that had previously been retired or stored. Meanwhile, freighter-converted 767s continued to be in demand due to the strength of the express market. Between January 2019 and 2020, the overall widebody freighter payload increased by approximately 6.5%, 1.2 percentage points lower than the year prior. Twin-engined aircraft now account for 62% of the total widebody freighter fleet, while 747Fs represent 26% and MD-10Fs and MD-11Fs make up just 12%. As more 777Fs are delivered to operators, older large freighters are being removed from service. All four of the MD-11Fs withdrawn in the past twelve months came from the fleet of Lufthansa Cargo, which finally decided in November to accelerate the retirement of its remaining MD11Fs and place an order for two more 777Fs. The carrier now has eight MD-11Fs, all of which will be retired by the end of 2020, as well as seven own-operated 777Fs. AeroLogic, Lufthansa Cargo’s joint venture with DHL Express, added four 777Fs in 2019, two of which are operated on behalf of Lufthansa. The other two are operated on a CMI basis for DHL. Similarly, FedEx Express bid farewell to its final A310-300F in January 2020, as part of a replacement plan that involves removing all its A310-300Fs and MD-10Fs as production 767-300Fs arrive. The A300F fleet saw the largest decrease in number from January 2019 to 2020, a reduction of eighteen aircraft. This was in part due to EgyptAir Cargo retiring all of its A300s in favor of freighter-converted A330-200s, as well as the storage of all six A300-600Fs of China-based Uni-Top Airlines, which suspended all operations in October after running into financial difficulties. The Chinese carrier had a seventh A300 undergoing conversion by Elbe Flugzeugwerke (EFW) in Dresden, but the fate of that aircraft is uncertain. Some of the operators with the largest numbers of fleet additions in 2019 include: AeroLogic, which added four 777Fs; ATSG, which added eight 767-300BDSFs; Atlas Air, which added three 747-400Fs and three 777Fs; FedEx, which added seven 777Fs and fifteen 767-300Fs; Kalitta Air, which added two 747-400BCFs, one 777F and two 767-300BDSFs; LATAM Cargo, which added three 767-300BCFs; Qatar Airways, which added six 777Fs; SF Airlines, which added one 747-400F and three 767-300BCFs; and UPS, which added six 747-8Fs, one 747-400BCF, four 767-300Fs, four 767-300BCFs and two 767-300BDSFs. At the same time, there were some retirements. Just to name a few: one 767-300BCF and one 767-300BDSF left the Atlas Air fleet; two MD-11Fs, six MD-10-10Fs, one A300-600F and five A310-300F left the FedEx fleet; and Qatar Airways removed two off-lease A330-200Fs. The 747 Classic has had somewhat of a revival in the CIS region, with Georgia-based Geo-Sky adding one unit and Kazakhstan-based Sigma Airlines and AZee Air each taking one unit. Geo-Sky and sister company The Cargo Airlines were not included in last year’s analysis. We should note that several operators no longer appear on our list. As mentioned above, Uni-Top Airlines is no longer operational. South Koreabased Air Incheon, which added a 767-300BDSF in 2018, was expected to add a second in 2019 but ended up exiting widebody operations altogether. Silk Road Cargo Business and SW Italia have also been removed. Apart from Azee Air, Geo-Sky and Sigma Airlines, new to the list this year is ACE Belgium Freighters, which launched commercial flights using a 747 400BCF dry-leased from CAL Cargo Airlines, with which it shares investors. Although there remain thirty-seven 747-400Fs — mostly conversions — and fifty MD-11Fs in storage, Cargo Facts believes that most aircraft worthy of returning to service are already there, and that most remaining units in storage will never fly again. As we reported in our December 2019 feature, five customers placed orders for seventeen 777Fs and eleven 767-300Fs in 2019. As of the end of December 2019, Boeing had seventeen 747-8Fs, fifty-three 777Fs and ninety-four 767-300Fs left to deliver, while Airbus currently only has three unfilled orders for Turkey-based MNG Airlines, which received its first A330-200F in 2012. It is unlikely that these frames will materialize, given that the carrier previously told Cargo Facts it was looking to add A330P2Fs.

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