Listen: A 777-8F order, drone updates and Asian market shakeups

In this week’s episode of the “Cargo Facts Connect” podcast, Cargo Facts Editor Jeff Lee and Associate Editors Andrew Crider and Robert Luke discuss a new order for Boeing’s next-generation 777-8F, the Asian cargo market, 737-800Fs and more developments in the cargo drone industry. The team looks at Silk Way West’s intention to use the 777-8F as part of its plan to replace the Queen of the Skies, Asia Cargo Network’s plan to place a number of 737NG and 767 freighters with its Middle Eastern AOC, and more 737-800BCFs joining North American operators. Additionally, the cargo drone industry continues to see more investments and first flights. Listeners are encouraged to offer feedback on drone industry news coverage by contacting acrider@royalmedia.com . Tune in for a discussion of these topics and more for the week ended Nov. 11, 2022. A transcript is available below. This transcript has been generated by software and is being presented as is. Some transcription errors may remain. Andrew Crider Hello, and welcome to this week's episode of cargo facts connect the podcast of cargo facts, the newsletter record for the freighter and aircraft industries for over 40 years. I'm your host, Andrew Crider, associate editor of cargo facts. Robert Luke And I'm associate editor Robert Luke of cargo facts. Jeff Lee And I'm Jeff Lee, editor of cargo facts. Andrew Crider Thank you for joining me today, Jeff and Rob, I want to begin with more updates from a ever growing drone industry. Earlier this week, there was a $500,000 investment from the genius NY program, which is a public private partnership that New York runs to track businesses leading in drone technology and unmanned technologies among other emerging areas into Central New York. Now that you've awarded a number of contracts for $500,000 to help establish drone hubs operations in the state and hopefully bringing them to the United States drone hub, of course, manufacturing a series of drone in the box solutions and which includes a cargo drum variant. We read we reached out for comments and haven't been able to hear back yet. We also saw this week the first flight of a new drone types on Phoenix wings, their orca drone. This first one is exciting this, this drone is capable of vertical takeoff and landing that transitions into conventional flight Once airborne, with a crew speed of around 69 miles per hour, a payload volume of 96 liters, and the variable range and payload mass from heavy lift 15 kilograms at 60 kilometers to one kilogram payload, 160 kilometer range. Really exciting stuff that we hope to hear more from. I want to turn now to Jeff Lee, editor of cargo facts. To give us a overview for a market outlook for the conventional freighter types. What's there that is new Jeff? Jeff Lee the Boeing world cargo forecast, which they released this week, it seems like they have shifted some of their the outlook. And obviously, one major thing is that Asia, the Asia Pacific region is still going to be the leader in terms of growth. But looking into the sub regions in Asia and the sub market. Boeing says that the intra East Asia segment is now going to be showing the top growth with 5.7% per year, going all the way to this is their 20 year forecast from 2022 to 2014. One and that's slightly different from their previous world air cargo forecast. And overall, they are now predicting a worldwide growth rates of 4.1% in terms of air cargo traffic. And that's a tiny bit higher than the last forecast, I will say on the intra East Asia market. It is interesting, isn't it because we have seen quite a number of new players, as well as expanding fleets in this region. And by this region. I'm of course talking about various carriers in China, but also South Korea. We've seen you know Air Incheon adding more 737 8 Hundreds, and we've seen a new freight operator in Jeju Air. And in terms of China, we've seen JD now getting certified. We've seen Shandong airlines getting 737 800 and central airlines 737 800. And notably, all of this growth, not all but a large part of this growth has been driven by 737 800 additions, which I find interesting. And then Boeing then moves on to talking about the freighter fleet and the growth they're predicting there, which actually we covered. When we were at the Farnborough Airshow, didn't we and basically they're they're saying that by the end of 2041, the worldwide total freighter fleet will grow to about 3600 units. And this is likely higher than their outlook last year. And one major driver of this apart from you know, the usual e commerce is just the replacement demand. For many of these older freighters that have been flying in the past two to three years, more than usual, actually. And so in the near future, these will be reaching retirement age. And by these I mean, there's all sorts of it's 747 classics, MD elevens, and even some 747 fuor hundreds, though, there's lots of interesting stuff in there. And they do go into a bit more detail in this world air cargo forecast. But basically, the message is that the market is still solid. And you know, in the long term, they, they're still pretty optimistic. Andrew Crider That's certainly interesting to hear. You mentioned replacement fleet, which reminds me, do we have an exclusive item earlier this week? Jeff Lee You did pick up on the Segway that I kind of set myself up for, but yes, we did have one major story this week. And that was, of course, Silk Way West in Azerbaijan. This is an extremely interesting carrier. And this this development was was not unexpected, but also just it's highly, highly fascinating. And so we had Silk Way West join our triple seven, and a350 freighter panel last month in San Diego. And they were already saying that they have plans to replace that 747 4 Hundreds, they've got seven at the moment. And they have the triple the existing version of the triple seven on order, they have to a 350s on order. And now they have to at least two triple seven dash eights on order. And all of these large wide body additions are to replace their current production 747, four hundreds, and they plan to start removing those in two years time. Slowly I have to say but they say that by 2028, they will have removed all seven of those 7474 Hundreds. But of course, these new ones won't all have entered service yet. For example, the A350s are going to start arriving in 2027. And they actually won't get that first current version triple seven until the second half of next year. But by the end of it all, their fleet will only have five, quad engine seven four seven dash eights. Then they'll have the five triple seven freighters and the 350s and eventually the triple seven dash eight. But it is interesting and I guess this follows on from cargolux which recently finalized its order for triple seven dash eights to replace its 7474 hundreds. So I think Brian hermesmeyer at Boeing was hinting at this in San Diego. Basically, we will be seeing more of these 747 operators pick their replacement. But, of course we had Airbus on that panel as well and Singapore Airlines was the first to pick the 350 to replace 747 four hundreds. So, it just goes to show that both these types are very capable replacements for the 747 400. And so, the this this competition and rivalry continues between Airbus and Boeing. And we look forward to seeing more of these 747 operators pick a side. Andrew Crider I will be looking forward to see which side that they pick. And if you want to be the first to tell me please hit either of our inboxes up we'd love the exclusive and thank you Boeing and Silk Way for trusting us this week. I want to turn our focus back to Asia. Robert eyes like a hawk. There's news from the Asia cargo network. Robert Luke Absolutely, Andrew. Thank you. But first before we get into that, I do want to just congratulate Silk Way West for making those silky smooth transactions this week. They continue to be pioneers as they continue to modernize and upgrade their fleets from the quad engine to the options that they're moving forward with with both the airbus and Boeing platforms so congratulations to Wolfgang and Ali and the rest of the Silk Way team. guys keep making those game changing decisions that you're doing. But yes, back to the flip side, you know, Andrew and Jeff there's a lot going on and you know, as much as people have some serious pessimistic pessimistic outlooks on Boeing, they're doing some very, very positive things particularly in the conversion market, especially with our guys Marco Isaak over at the Asian cargo network and the rest of his group recently agreed to partner with a mena cargo aerospace. This is news breaking because Asia cargo network is firmly entrenched in the Malaysian and Indonesian markets, and just have been covertly networking and building the framework for a partnership with this middle eastern group that only had 1 737 300 freighter on their AOC, which they just recently Incorporated. So to make this land with to make this groundbreaking agreement is monumental for this group that just continues to grow and make the right decisions. And, you know, they have escalated to the point where they've acquired the AOC four point in exchange for 49% stake in the mena air cargo parent company. And in addition to solidifying that they have turned around and guaranteed that they will add at least an additional four aircraft by the second quarter, but rounded out to complete the fleet to make it six aircraft strong, which will consist of 737 800 Boeing conversion freighters again, now you're going back to the strength of Boeing continuing with the conversions on the 800 platform, and they are now going to also add 2 767 300 freighters to this fleet. Now, that's just game changing, because now they're looking at them not only just solidifying their presence in the Asian market, but they're going to cover multiple points in the Middle East, Africa, India, and various other parts of the Western Asian region. So now, they've just expanded their operational strength of arm a capability to just start hitting those critical areas. And this is just happens to be one area that is just grown tremendously as far as air cargo network and direct route servicing is concerned. So kudos to Marco Isaac and the rest of the Asia cargo network team for that successful partnership. And also a sincere congratulations to Dr. Muhammad Juman. And the mena aerospace group that has partnered up with Asia for this very exciting growth outlook. And we'll look we'll be keeping our eyes out see how these guys continue to leave their footprint of the region. Also, as I reflect more on Boeing, they have just recently been able to get to more conversions, particularly with Alaskan airlines, who's going to be working with BBAM to lease two more 737 800BCFs that will be slated for induction at the COOPESA site down in San Jose. So from my understanding, they're scheduled to bring these aircraft in for conversion around 2023. And they should be ready to go by early 2024. So congratulations to the Alaska Air group over there. And BBAM has also been busy at work as they have also secured some additional aircraft for WestJet, which is going to add more seven, three sevens. Now the particular item here is going to be a mix of 737 800BCFs and SFs. What the exact number of the mixed fleet will be we don't know. But it has been confirmed thanks to our coworker Ashley on air cargo world side of the publication for getting that scoop for us. Great work. She's definitely given us the insight to know that they plan on increasing their fleet size to double digits, but they are expecting to have the first two aircraft hopefully ready and then fully operational by I believe it's March 2023 as they work with Transport Canada to get their certification. So we tip our hat to the WestJet family and we look forward to seeing those aircraft go airborne real soon. So that is all that I have for this week. I want to turn it back over to you Andrew so we can keep this podcast rolling. Andrew Crider Well, I just wanted to close with I even forgot to mention one other drone item and that was dronamics. They have their black swan drone, and they announced that they would be including a hydrogen power variant. Now this is another situation where reached out and weren't able to get comments just yet, but that that company has certainly made a number of efforts to make their drones as sustainable as possible. That company in particular dronamics and their black swan, there's you mentioned Ashley before there's a bunch of coverage on them, available at Air Cargo world.com On. And this is where I want to close by reaching out to our listeners and readers. Right now with the drone space growing at such a precipitous rate. We're certainly at a crossroads to see how we cover the best and greatest news in the industry. And I would love to hear your thoughts on it. As far as what you would like to see where you would like to see it, and what your curiosities are, if you wanted to email me acrider a cri de r at Royal media.com about drone info I want to be able to make sure that we are everyone here wants to make sure that we are adjusting our contact accordingly. Jeff Lee I also want to ask you, Andrew and Rob, what you thought of all these drone names? Because you know, black swan, twin tails, Scorpion rhaegal Orca? What? What's next? Also what kind of like, which is your favorite drone name? Robert Luke That's a good question, Jeff. There are so many out there and they're very creative in their own right. Have I really had time to ponder over which is an ideally attractive one that just stuck out to me? No, so I guess I'll just kind of, you know, pull one out of the hat, so to speak. And I'll say for me, Natilus is just something about that. That's just sounds so smooth to me. So I gotta give credit to the name itself. Because it's just, it just it just, it captures my attention. That's the best way to describe it. It's very simple to the point but it's got like this smooth, because I don't get upset type rhythm to it. So yeah, natilus is definitely the one for me. Andrew Crider I think you want to stay conventional in the naming is to not we're already talking about drones in the future. It's a lot to wrap my head around. So if I have to be researching some Norse god to understand the origin of your drone name, I'm going to be struggling there to conceptualize the drone in reality, Jeff Lee You prefer a drone that's called the AC 687135? Andrew Crider No, no. Any any name is a great opportunity for marketing and like we can go on to the larger philosophical conversation for why Boeing has all of its all of its names 73 74, triple seven, all around that the seven so it's a great opportunity for marketing. I'm just have a lazier taste and can't wrap my head around. So do Jeff Lee I wouldn't mind a drone that's named after a Norse god unless one already exists, but an ODIN or Thor. Robert Luke How about Captain America? Andrew Crider Iron Man drum. Robert Luke That's a good one. Radio Flyer. Andrew Crider Well, I'll add to the email list to send me your best drone names. And if we like them, we'll go ahead and read them on next week's episode. But for now, that's all the time we have for today. For more multimedia coverage like this, search cargo facts connect on iTunes and Spotify and search cargofacts.com. Thank you very much for joining us today. Join us again next time. Subscribe to Cargo Facts Connect on iTunes or Spotify , or download the episode on Transistor .

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