Listen: Will we finally find out what’s next for widebody freighters?

With Cargo Facts Symposium 2021 around the corner, excitement is building and the industry is buzzing with activity across nearly every freighter and passenger-to-freighter conversion program. Our first live, in-person event since early 2020 promises to be a long-awaited reunion of friends, colleagues and partners. To set the stage for a successful event, Charles Kauffman, Jeff Lee and guest Caryn Livingston joined this special in-studio recording of Cargo Facts Connect to review some of this week’s stories that are revealing the trends and topics that will feature heavily next week. The editors also discuss the industry’s burning questions that will come into focus during next week’s event, from potential widebody freighter program characteristics to new commitments for the dozens of passenger aircraft moving through the freighter conversion process, now and in the months ahead. A transcript is available below. This transcript has been generated by software and is being presented as is. Some transcription errors may remain. Caryn Livingston Hello, and welcome to this episode of cargo facts connect the podcast of cargo facts, the newsletter of record for the air cargo and freighter aircraft industries for over 40 years. I'm your host, Caryn Livingston, deputy editor. Charles Kauffman And I'm Charles Kauffman, Senior Editor. Jeff Lee And I'm Jeff Lee, deputy editor of cargo facts. Caryn Livingston To those of you tuning in. Thank you for joining us. The three of us are working together out of the same office today. And that sets the theme for the week to come as next week, we'll be presenting our first live cargo facts event since early 2020. Looking ahead to next week in Las Vegas, we've got a fantastic speaker lineup, and it looks like attendance will surpass what we've seen in recent years. that perhaps comes as no surprise is there is so much to discuss. I'd like to start by asking both of you a different kind of question. What market related question are you most hoping to see answered during the conference? Charles Kauffman Ooh, that's a good one. I have I have many, I think that the top of my mind, you know, with 2022, somehow just around the corner. For me, 2022 is the end of the seven for seven DASH eight production line. That's how I'm looking at 2022 right now. And we've been asking ourselves for years, what comes next in terms of a production freighter, and you know what we're getting there, Airbus and Boeing are now discussing new large wide body types based on the a 350 and the triple 7x platforms. And next week, many of their potential customers for these aircraft will be in Vegas. And I expect that, you know, we'll hear from some of the top operators in this category of freighter about, you know what they're looking for, in in this next aircraft. And if we look at the current triple seven production freighter, it's based on the triple seven 200, which is about 10 meters or 30 feet shorter than the triple seven 300. Er, and there are similar variances with the the various, a 350s and triples of an axes that that have been proposed. And so these decisions will impact payload and capacity and will ultimately shape we planning for years to come. Jeff Lee Yeah, I mean, I think like you, I think everyone else will have plenty of questions for different segments of the market. And obviously, with the triple seven, yes, and the 350. Things are moving forward on that front. But equally exciting is the conversion side. Because we now know of course, that three companies are intending to convert triple sevens into freighters. And it is exciting, and I'm excited to see that all three will be present in Las Vegas next week to join us and I hope we can find out more than that front. When it comes to medium wide bodies. We're seeing a lot of interest in the a 330. And we now know of two programs that will eventually convert every 30s while the 767 continues to garner orders in both production and converted forms. But speaking of that, Caryn, you wrote a piece this week that looked at the interplay between freighter conversions and factory built freighters during the pandemic, didn't you? Caryn Livingston Yes, I did. And while production freighters and converted freighters tend to serve different market needs and are selected based on equipment utilization and payload arrange requirements, the 767 conversion became more competitive as a result of the pandemic. So Tom Sanderson director for product marketing with Boeing commercial airplanes, said during Wednesday's Air Cargo market and product briefing that Boeing is seeing demand for the size category swing a little bit toward the conversion freighter side. So there's certainly a lot happening in the white body space. But what are some of the developments we should be watching for when it comes to the narrow body space Charles Kauffman watching for the narrowbodies space there has been so much over the course of the past year. You know, we've really been covering the tremendous interest in in narrow body conversions. Just this week, we had a piece from our associate editor Regina Johnson, that looked at how the pandemic created the perfect storm for narrowbody conversions. You know, on the demand side with with e commerce booming, we've seen the demand for freighter lift, really surge across all categories of aircraft and the NGO the 737 size categories is really no exception there. You know in this story in particular looks at how the pandemic has Really ease pricing pressure on on 77 mg airframes and has made it easier for operators and less hours in that space to convert the air to acquiring and convert the aircraft. And that's partially what's behind this surge in orders. Another interesting story from this week looked at, you know what's happening with the seven or seven classics that some of these mg freighters are replacing. And while in the past, we may have seen many of these end up in in storage or, you know, head into part out, they'll we're seeing most of them go off and join the fleets of other carriers. So this week, there were a couple of stories that'd be America's couple of transactions, I should say, as to feta cargo, I is adding one of the 737 classics. And last cargo is in the process of doing so. So looking ahead to the conference next week, I do expect that we'll learn about some new operator agreements with the lessors who have ordered conversions on on a speculative basis. And then, looking at the conversion houses and the OEMs that are involved in the programs, I do expect to hear about conversion capacity increases for some of the other programs, maybe not this m there's seven 800, which has ramped up capacity quite significantly in recent weeks. But for some of the other narrowbodies, perhaps the 321 200. Or even back to the medium wide bodies. Jeff Lee Yeah, and so we'll obviously see most of the major players involved in the 737 Classic and 737 energy space in Las Vegas next week, whether it be version companies less or the operators. And as you were saying, We've already seen just how much activity that has been with seven three seven NGs just this past week, three of three or four of our stories covering seven hundreds or 800s. But of course at the same time with a 320 family freighters also ramping up, particularly when it comes to the a 321. The narrowbody market is just going to be a fascinating one to observe. And I I am looking forward to speaking with many of these people face to face after having just you know talk to them via video for the past year and a half. Charles Kauffman while it's important to point out that most of our discussions will focus on on traders and conversions. Caryn, you're moderating a session that we'll look at integrating alternatives to today's jet freighters into air cargo. Why are you pumped for this session? Caryn Livingston Well, it is exciting, because the vehicle operations and rpv or autonomous technologies are no longer hypothetical in this space. So the capability is here. And in recent months, we've seen airlines and express companies starting to partner with some of the developers and invest in some of these technologies. So our panelists for this session. They're representing a wide range of emerging technologies engaged in many different types of cargo operations, including last in middle mile transport, and I'm looking forward to hearing more about potential applications for those technologies. Jeff Lee So I think it's fair to say that we're all very much excited and super looking forward to the symposium next week. And to all of our readers and listeners do come and say hello, it would be lovely to catch up with all of you. And finally, can I just say how nice it is to be physically sitting in front of You two here in Seattle. Charles Kauffman It is definitely great to be back in the flesh and I do look forward to reconnecting with familiar faces and meeting new ones next week in Vegas. Caryn Livingston Yes, nice to be back here with with both of you. And a nice to have another deputy editor on the podcast. So congratulations to Jeff for his recent promotion. But that is all the time we have for today. So to those of you listening, thanks for tuning into this episode of cargo fax Connect. For more multimedia content like this, check out cargofacts.com and search cargo facts connect on iTunes and Spotify. Join us again next time. Subscribe to Cargo Facts Connect on iTunes or Spotify , or download the episode on Transistor . Cargo Facts Symposium, taking place LIVE Oct. 25-27 at the Wynn Las Vegas, is the essential event for stakeholders in the air cargo industry. Learn more and register at www.cargofactssymposium.com .

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