Manufacturing powers on in Europe and North America in June

A look at the latest manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) figures for June paints a positive picture, but while Europe and North America are going strong, the picture across Asia is rather mixed.

The interactive map below shows an overview of manufacturing PMI figures across the world, and the number of consecutive months of expansion. For each country, there is a pop-up that provides a historical overview of PMIs since January 2020, and a forecast for the next four quarters. Values over 50 indicate expansion, while values under 50 indicate contraction. While PMIs do not provide us with an accurate assessment of actual production levels, they do provide us with a timely insight into current activity. Actual production figures tend to lag a number of months.

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While China has seen 14 months of uninterrupted expansion, the indicators going forward do not point to major expansion as trade dispute issues continue to linger and create potential downward risks for trade with most of its major partners. South Korea and Taiwan based manufacturing point to stronger current and expected performance over the next four quarters. After having a good-ish run over the past five months, Japanese manufacturing is expected to start declining at the beginning of 2022. The forecast for European, US and Brazilian manufacturing remain strong over the next four quarters, while Mexico is expected to disappoint and continue to decline. However, recent trans-border freight data between the US and Mexico for the first four months of 2021 show that trade between both countries are higher than they were in the 2018 peak, with automotive imports, industrial equipment, household goods, among others, all doing well.

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