Presidential election ’24: Implications for the air cargo industry

The air cargo community — like everyone else — is anxiously awaiting the results of the U.S. presidential election, being held today. Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, has promised increased tariffs, which would raise costs across the supply chain. Trump has said that in a second term, he would introduce a 60% tariff on Chinese goods and a 10% to 20% tariff on other imports. [caption id="attachment_57146529" align="aligncenter" width="1920"] A poll worker hands a voter an 'I Voted' sticker. (Courtesy/Ian Maule/Bloomberg)[/caption] While Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, has not promised increased tariffs, such a move is possible. The Biden-Harris administration kept many of the tariffs imposed by Trump and imposed additional tariffs on $18 billion worth of imports from China in August. Expectations of a Harris presidency Air cargo industry experts say a Harris presidency would be a continuation of the past four years. The Biden administration’s “efforts to strengthen supply chain resilience have benefited the air cargo sector,” Airforwarders Association Executive Director Brandon Fried told Cargo Facts today. However, the administration’s robust environmental policies and support for organized labor have caused operational challenges, he said. With a Harris win, Fried said she would likely focus on: Infrastructure investment; Stronger environmental regulations; and Enhanced workers’ rights and protections. Infrastructure improvement would likely center on airport modernization, “hopefully in the cargo areas at major airports ,” Fried said. As for the environment, more regulation to reduce carbon emissions could increase costs for air cargo operators, he said. Derek Lossing, senior adviser and founder of Cirrus Global Advisors, agreed that Harris will stay the course. “You will see the rulemaking on the low-value clearance that the Biden-Harris administration enacted proceed as planned, which will impact the China-to-U.S. flows,” Lossing told Cargo Facts . “Our firm is expecting this in Q2 or Q3 2025. Our firm is forecasting a reduction in total China-U.S. e-commerce demand in the 8% to 18% range, which could impact total demand by 3% to 7%.” Expectations if Trump wins If he returns to the White House, Trump would likely work to increase tariffs on Chinese products, though “Trump tends to be a little more unpredictable in terms of actual policy,” Lossing said. Lossing expects tariff policy under Trump to take a backseat to immigration policy. “But increases in China tariffs should be watched, whether that’s an increase in tariff amount or a wider range of products that could be impacted,” he said. Trump’s policies would have some positive results, the analysts agreed. Protectionist measures, such as increased tariffs and renegotiated trade agreements, could disrupt supply chains while also creating new logistics opportunities, Fried said. Trump would also likely advocate for deregulation, which would help air cargo companies by easing operational constraints, he said. During Trump’s first term, tax reform and deregulation benefited the logistics sector, Fried said. However, Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods created market volatility, “rerouting supply chains and adversely impacting airfreight volumes,” he said. Stricter China policies on horizon Both candidates have expressed support for increased infrastructure investment and stricter policies on imports from China. According to Lossing, “both parties have fairly strong positions on China, on some of the cross-border e-commerce being bad for America and tightening up scrutiny on how illicit substances are making their way into the country.” Trump and Harris are both likely to be tough on trade from China but that will require congressional support to push through any policies, according to Lossing and TAC Index Editor Neil Wilson. “It seems to me there is likely to be more protectionism whoever wins the election, though perhaps to differing degrees depending on who wins and who controls Congress,” Wilson told Cargo Facts . “With bipartisan legislation on the table , it seems likely there will be some sort of tightening up around the de minimis exemption for smaller parcels, but if it turns out to be an extra say $2 charge per parcel, then that may only have a marginal effect on overall activity.” However, the industry must monitor several factors that could change between now and when the president-elect takes office, Lossing said. Issues include: Attacks on shipping vessels in the Red Sea ; The war in the Middle East; and A possible East Coast port strike in the new year. “Open skies continues to be important as our global standard but I don’t see significant changes with either winner,” Lossing said. Cargo Facts LATAM 2025, the essential event for stakeholders in Latin America, will take place Feb. 10-11 at the Pullman Sao Paulo Guarulhos Airport. Learn more and register by Dec. 29 to take advantage of early-bird pricing.

Presidential election ’24: Implications for the air cargo industry

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Presidential election ’24: Implications for the air cargo industry

Candidates look to invest in infrastructure, impose stricter policies on China

Boeing ends crippling strike as workers accept latest offer

Cargojet revenue up 14.8%

Related Posts

Raya Airways launches first dedicated freighter route to Maldives

Cathay Pacific profit rises as strong demand offsets war, fuel impact

German airport stops flights after drone sighting, collision

Cargojet revenue up 14.8%

Cargo Facts Free Newsletters

Cargo Facts Connect Podcast

Follow Us

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Retrieve your password

Presidential election ’24: Implications for the air cargo industry