June manufacturing figures show signs of recovery (updated)

While manufacturing in May was still experiencing declines, June PMI figures are looking mostly positive and showing signs of recovery. Forecasts for the 3rd quarter have also been revised upwards for a number of key economies including the Euro area, the US, China, India, Brazil, Canada and Australia. In most cases this means the expectation of expansion instead of contraction, although in the case of Canada less contraction than expected. Manufacturing activity is the primary driver of global airfreight volumes. While much of the focus is on e-commerce, it is worth nothing that airfreight remains an industrial tool. 65-75% of international airfreight consists of primary inputs, intermediate goods, parts and supplies, and capital equipment. Even over the past months where COVID-19 related medical shipments have increased their share of airfreight , for example, 80% of US and EU imports by air were still related to normal air freight. The interactive map below shows a worldwide overview of June Purchasing Manager Indexes (PMIs). A value of 50 or over indicates growth in orders, shipments and purchasing activity compared to a month earlier. There are additional layers for May 2020 and the forecast for Q3-2020. Clicking on each point will open a pop up that shows a history of indicators since January as well as a forecast through to Q2-2021. The figures are based on PMI survey assembled by tradingeconomics.com , an excellent site that pulls together key economic variables from around the world. .embed-container {position: relative; padding-bottom: 80%; height: 0; max-width: 100%;} .embed-container iframe, .embed-container object, .embed-container iframe{position: absolute; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%;} small{position: absolute; z-index: 40; bottom: 0; margin-bottom: -15px;} However, forecasts for key African economies Kenya and Nigeria have been revised downwards, with the expectation that activity will contract rather than expand. Japan, Korea and Mexico are also showing cause for concern. In both countries manufacturing activity continued to decline in June 2020 and are not forecast to resume growth until later in the year. And while France and the UK showed moderate growth in June, Germany and Italy were still in negative territory. It is expected that the Euro area and US grow in the third quarter. Activity in China, which had posted growth over the past month is expected to remain largely flat over the coming quarters. Note: forecasts and data are current as at 13 July 2020.

June manufacturing figures show signs of recovery (updated)

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