MD-11 grounding and impact on global freighter capacity

The Nov. 8 grounding of the MD-11F fleets at UPS , FedEx and Western Global Airlines following the engine-separation accident at Louisville removed a major portion of large-widebody capacity from the integrator sector in a matter of hours. After the crash , which killed 14 people, Boeing recommended grounding and the FAA issued an emergency directive requiring inspections before further operation. The action sidelined roughly sixty freighters at the start of a period when carriers normally increase system flexibility. UPS and FedEx relied on the MD-11 as both a domestic trunk aircraft and a long-haul widebody, while Western Global used the type for most of its international flying. Reviewing the last thirty days of MD-11 activity provides a clear picture of where this aircraft provided essential lift and where the grounding now constrains domestic and international networks. MD-11 lift before grounding Before the grounding, the MD-11 provided more than 270,000 tonnes of scheduled lift across domestic, regional and long-haul routes in October. As seen in Figure 1, the distribution of this lift shows how central the type was to the networks of the three operators. UPS generated roughly 151,657 tonnes — more than half — of all MD-11 capacity, revealing its heavy reliance on the aircraft for high-frequency domestic trunk routes linking major Southern and Western U.S. hubs. FedEx contributed 115,305 tonnes, driven by a blend of dense domestic flying and long-haul deployments into Asia and Europe. Western Global’s 2,461 tonnes, while small in comparison, still shows important international coverage supported by its smaller fleet. Figure 1 - MD-11 October Capacity and Active Fleet Count by Operator

Figure 1 also shows the active fleet count, which reinforces these dynamics. UPS operated 26 MD-11Fs, nearly matching FedEx’s 27, yet produced a larger share of total lift due to the aircraft’s concentration on short- and medium-haul domestic cycles that generate higher weekly utilization. FedEx’s similar fleet size produced slightly less tonnage because a portion of its MD-11s were tied to longer international sectors that reduce frequency but serve essential intercontinental lanes. Western Global’s four active aircraft accounted for only a small portion of the total fleet, consistent with its smaller contribution, but the type remained focused on its long-haul model. Figure 2 provides a clearer breakdown of each carrier’s MD-11 usage in October. Figure 2 - Domestic vs International Capacity by Operator (October 2025)

Figure 2 shows how heavily each carrier leaned on the MD-11 throughout its network. UPS generated 151,467 tonnes of domestic lift with the type, far above FedEx’s 95,614 tonnes of domestic activity. That imbalance shows UPS’ reliance on the MD-11 for dense, high-frequency night operations, for which repeated cycles and firm landings stress an already aging fleet. FedEx’s pattern, with nearly 20,000 tonnes tied to longer international sectors, spreads aircraft utilization more evenly and results in fewer cycles per frame. These differences matter because a high-cycle, older MD-11 is exposed to distinct operational pressures, and that broader context is part of what prompted closer scrutiny of the fleet during the grounding. Where MD-11 provided most critical lift Figure 3 shows that the grounding has had the largest impact in the South, which accounted for roughly 140,000 tonnes of MD-11 lift in October. Most of this tonnage is driven by the roles of Memphis and Louisville as the primary overnight sort hubs for FedEx and UPS, where dense, multiwave schedules depend on widebody capacity to keep departure banks aligned. Dallas, Houston and Miami also ranked among the busiest MD-11 nodes, supporting heavy intra-South flows that feed both integrators’ hub structures. Figure 3 – MD-11 US Regional Destination Capacity Breakdown (October 2025)

The West is the second-largest region of exposure with approximately 45,000 tonnes of October MD-11 lift. Key nodes such as Los Angeles, Ontario, Oakland and Phoenix serve as major domestic redistribution points and staging gateways for westbound international activity. International routes are another major category, with less than 30,000 tonnes of long-haul MD-11 flying in October. Almost all of this was tied to FedEx’s intercontinental network into Asia and Europe, while UPS’s MD-11 international usage remained limited but included select lanes into the Caribbean and Mexico. In the route map below, we see UPS’s domestic exposure. Map 1 - UPS MD-11 Last 100 Flights Activity Map

The routes show dense Louisville-centered flying across the South and West. These lanes rely on high-volume widebody aircraft, and replacing MD-11 lift with medium widebodies reduces per-flight capacity. Mitigating the loss of MD-11 lift Mitigation efforts differ across operators because their reliance on the MD-11 varies. UPS shifted a large share of domestic MD-11 flying to its 767-300F and A300-600F fleets, which support high-frequency operations but carry less volume. UPS increased departures on several lanes to maintain throughput, which restores operational continuity but requires more aircraft and tighter scheduling. UPS also contracted short term ACMI lift, adding supplemental 767 and 757 capacity from multiple carriers . The move enabled UPS to reassign its own 767s to higher volume routes while temporarily stabilizing domestic coverage during the grounding period. This additional ACMI flying reflects how limited spare widebody tonnage is in the market and how difficult it is to replace lost MD-11 volume. FedEx adopted a different posture because its MD-11 exposure includes significant long-haul flying, as shown in the map below (Map 2). The company reassigned 777Fs to international routes that previously relied on the MD-11. The 777F can cover Asian and European sectors effectively but is limited in availability. Every 777F that shifts to long-haul replacement reduces flexibility elsewhere. FedEx backfilled domestic routes with 767-300Fs and A300-600Fs. Map 2 - FedEx MD-11 Last 100 Flights Activity Map

FedEx also received support through ACMI 747 operations. These aircraft provided large block lift into major hubs, giving FedEx the ability to reassign more of its own 777Fs to cover sustained international lanes. Western Global, with no internal replacement aircraft and no medium-widebody fleet, has fewer options. The airline relied almost entirely on the MD-11 and thus experienced the most direct operational suspensions . Without ready access to ACMI large widebodies, many flows remain paused until inspections are concluded. Below, the route map shows the loss of lift in trans-Atlantic and trans-Pacific lanes served by Western Global. Map 3 – Western Global Airlines MD-11 Last 100 Flights Activity Map

Route maps source: Cargo Facts Consulting analysis of Flightradar24 data Which regions, lanes face greatest immediate impact The last 100 flights of each of MD-11 shows that integrators face the most pressure in regions where widebody density is highest and where cycle timing depends on consistent payload capacity. The South experiences the largest disruption. With more than 225,000 tonnes of MD-11 lift tied to Louisville-centered domestic corridors, UPS and FedEx lose substantial flexibility in overnight and multiwave sorting structures. Routes such as Louisville-to-Dallas, Houston and Miami depend on large per flight volume to support hub distribution. Replacing MD-11s with medium widebodies increases departure frequency and reduces buffer time for irregular operations. The West, with roughly 78,000 tonnes of MD-11 capacity removed, is the second most affected. West coast stations rely on widebody lift to manage inbound trans-Pacific volumes and to move outbound domestic freight into central sorting locations. FedEx also used the MD-11 on trans-Pacific staging through Anchorage, meaning the grounding affects long-haul timing as well as domestic throughput. Substitution with 777Fs covers long-haul demand but reduces flexibility downstream. Long-haul international lanes face distinct constraints. More than 57,000 tonnes of MD-11 capacity served FedEx’s Asia and Europe networks. These flows require aircraft with sufficient payload, range and cycle durability. The 777F can provide this lift, but the fleet is limited and already scheduled tightly. Each 777F redirected to international flying reduces available domestic widebody capacity. UPS faces smaller international disruption but still loses key capacity on routes to the Caribbean and Mexico, where reduced volume affects outbound and return load planning. The Northeast and Midwest also show meaningful losses of between 20,000 and 45,000 tonnes combined. These reductions are smaller but restrict network balance, especially as East Coast import volumes require widebody lift into inland hubs. Finally, Alaska and Pacific staging points face bottlenecks as MD-11 flows previously linked trans-Pacific sectors to mainland networks. Without these aircraft, FedEx rotates more 777Fs through Anchorage to sustain long-haul schedules. This further tightens overall fleet flexibility. What grounding signals for MD-11 fleet strategy The grounding accelerates questions already under review across all MD-11 operators. The aircraft remains valuable for its cubic volume and role as a low acquisition cost large widebody, but it is also an aging platform with increasing maintenance demands. The Nov. 4 accident and subsequent inspections highlight long-term structural considerations for the type. The aircraft involved in the accident had surpassed 92,900 hours and 21,015 cycles, reinforcing the age profile of many MD-11 units. The age distribution in Figure 4 highlights the age of the MD-11s and 747-400s, which are the oldest of the large widebodies. Figure 4 - 747-400/MD-11 Freighter Fleet Age by Year

For UPS, the shift away from the MD-11 was already in motion. Two MD-11 retirements took place earlier in 2025, and another was scheduled by yearend. The company also added six 767-300Fs this year. The grounding will likely reinforce UPS’ decision to accelerate MD-11 retirement in favor of medium-widebody growth. The 767-300F fits UPS’ domestic network well and can be deployed at high frequency, allowing the company to maintain throughput even with reduced per-flight capacity. The grounding may push UPS to revise retirement timing upward. For FedEx, the timeline is more complex. While UPS can replace many MD-11 missions with 767-300Fs, FedEx uses the MD-11 extensively on long-haul routes where medium widebodies are not suitable. FedEx extended its MD-11 retirement horizon from fiscal 2028 to fiscal 2032 due to widebody scarcity. The grounding may prompt a reassessment if inspections introduce higher long-term maintenance requirements. FedEx’s ability to substitute 777Fs temporarily shows the network can adapt, but long-term planning will likely require additional large widebody procurement or expanded ACMI support. For Western Global, the grounding represents a more significant issue. With no alternative fleet type and limited resources to add large-widebody aircraft, any increase in maintenance burden or inspection requirements could reduce the economic viability of continuing MD-11 operations. The carrier’s reliance on the type for nearly all of its international flying presents a long-term risk if regulatory changes increase operational overhead or if inspections uncover structural concerns. Few other alternatives The grounding highlights the structural capacity tightness in the large-widebody freighter market , where no modern aircraft can match the MD-11’s combination of volume, cost and availability. With 747 fleets limited and largely locked into long-term ACMI contracts, and the 777F both expensive and production-constrained, operators have few practical alternatives, keeping the MD-11 necessary in the near term despite heightened scrutiny. Going forward, carriers are likely to continue using the type but with stricter inspections , more conservative deployment and accelerated planning for replacement lift. UPS may advance its retirement timeline, FedEx may balance extended service with gradual 777F growth and Western Global faces the greatest pressure to reassess long-term viability. The UPS crash speeds up existing trends but does not immediately remove the MD-11 from the integrator ecosystem. Conclusion The grounding of the MD-11F removed more than 270,000 tonnes of lift in October, hitting UPS’ domestic network, FedEx’s long-haul routes and Western Global’s international coverage. The sharpest effects were felt across the Southern and Western U.S., major Asia and Europe lanes and staging points in Alaska and the Pacific. Operators moved fast — UPS shifted 767s and A300s and brought in ACMI support, FedEx reassigned 777Fs and added ACMI 747 capacity, while Western Global had fewer options and faced direct suspensions — but none of these fully replace the MD-11’s cubic volume. Looking ahead, tighter inspections and rising maintenance demands may push retirements forward, yet with no modern large-widebody substitute available, the MD-11 will remain in use for now, albeit under closer scrutiny as carriers reassess longer-term fleet plans.

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