Lagging SAF tech is key barrier to net zero, IATA says

The aviation industry must overcome several hurdles to reach net zero by 2050, including its biggest challenge: lagging sustainable aviation fuel technology. IATA and consulting firm Worley published a study on Sept. 23 showing that sufficient sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) feedstock exists to enable aviation to achieve the goal set by IATA and widely adopted by the industry. [caption id="attachment_57137772" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] (Courtesy/CanStock/tanaonte)[/caption] SAF is broadly regarded as the best path to achieve net-zero carbon emissions in the aviation industry by 2050. The slow rollout of technology that would enable SAF to be produced from several sources is creating a bottleneck in the race to achieve the goal, IATA said in a release last week. Diversifying feedstock Competition for feedstock from other potential users could also slow SAF availability, according to the report. “Policies allocating biomass feedstock to hard-to-abate sectors such as aviation must be prioritized,” the release said. Airlines will need 500 million tonnes of SAF to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050, according to IATA. To meet this volume, between 3,000 and more than 6,500 renewable fuel plants need to be built, according to an IATA estimate in December 2024. The cost to build these facilities over the next thirty years is $128 billion per year in a best-case scenario, IATA said at the time. Diverse production methods can boost SAF volumes as different methods require different feedstock. Commercially scaled SAF production facilities today use hydroprocessed fatty acid esters and fatty acids (HEFA) technology, for example converting used cooking oil into SAF. However, multiple SAF pathways exist. Lagging production SAF production volumes in 2024 reached 1.3 billion liters, double the 600 million liters produced in 2023, according to IATA. SAF accounted for 0.3% of global jet fuel production and 11% of global renewable fuel, IATA said. Production of SAF is expected to reach 2.1 million tonnes in 2025, or 0.7% of total jet fuel production and 13% of global renewable fuel capacity. Despite SAF production doubling in 2024, that remains less than 1% of the world’s need. To meet net-zero targets with SAF alone, 450 billion liters will be needed by 2050, TIACA previously told Cargo Facts . “We have just 25 years to turn this proven potential into reality.” — Willie Walsh, director general of IATA IATA predicts that, with the right policies and investments, more than 300 million tonnes of SAF from biomass feedstocks and around 200 million tonnes from electro-fueled SAF (eSAF) could be produced annually by 2050, according to the report. Wind and solar power becomes eSAF in a power-to-liquid process. Looking ahead To maximize output, the SAF production industry must improve conversion efficiencies, accelerate technology rollout, enhance feedstock logistics and invest in better infrastructure required to scale up commercial facilities across all regions, IATA said in the release. “We now have unequivocal evidence that, if SAF production is prioritized, then feedstock availability is not a barrier in the industry’s path to decarbonization,” IATA Director General Willie Walsh said in the release. “There is enough potential feedstock from sustainable sources to reach net zero carbon emissions in 2050. However, this will only be accomplished with a major acceleration of the SAF industry’s growth. We need shovels in the ground now.” Commercial aviation must take several actions to overcome the main barriers to scaling up SAF production, according to the IATA, including: Enhance feedstock supply chain infrastructure and diversify feedstock; Accelerate the rollout of SAF production technology, especially for eSAF; and Work with governments and shareholders to enact policies and garner investments to create a robust SAF market. “Governments, energy producers, investors and the aviation sector must work together, de-risk investment and accelerate rollout,” Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA senior vice president of sustainability and chief economist, said in the release. Cargo Facts Symposium, the quintessential event for stakeholders and key leaders in the global freighter and air cargo industries, will take place Oct. 22-24 at the Grand Hyatt in Nashville . Learn more and register today to attend this key industry event. Cargo Facts LATAM 2026, the essential event for stakeholders in Latin America, will take place Feb. 10-12 at the Marquis Reforma in Mexico City. Learn more and register by Dec. 19 to take advantage of early-bird pricing.

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