The narrowbody freighter fleet part I: 737 NG freighters take off

Today we begin a three-part analysis of the worldwide fleet of narrowbody jet freighters with a look at the overall composition of the fleet – how many of the different types are in operation by which carriers. Later this week, in part II , we will look at active and emerging conversion programs for the narrowbody freighter types currently available and set to enter the market in late 2019 and early 2020. Finally, in part III , we will break down the fleet on a type-by-type basis, with a focus on express, and then by regional distribution. Although the first 737 NG freighter squeaked into the global narrowbody fleet in 2017 when Alaska Air Cargo took redelivery of the first Bedek-converted 737-700BDSF in September of that year, the biggest development in the year since Cargo Facts last took a look at narrowbody freighters has been the addition of freighter-converted 737 NG aircraft. As of the end of March, 737 NG freighters (both the 700s and 737-800 variants) are in operation with seven carriers – Alaska Air Cargo, West Atlantic Airlines, Air Algérie, SpiceJet, ASL Airlines Belgium, Ethiopian Airlines, and Atran Airlines. Then, late last month, Amazon Air entered the equation with the announcement that it will add at least five 737-800Fs to its US operations, which could lead to a real surge in demand as the programs ramp up. Broadening our analysis beyond the new narrowbody types, a total of 98 carriers operate 673 narrowbody freighters. Of course, in reaching this figure, we have made a few assumptions. For the purposes of this analysis, we have chosen not to include the few remaining 707Fs and DC-8Fs, nor do we include aircraft in combi configuration. We do include some aircraft in Quick Change configuration, but only if we believe them to be operated full time, or much of the time, as freighters. We also opted to include BAe 146QTs, though it could be argued they are not true narrowbodies. Using the above guidelines, we find that, as of late March 2019, there were 673 narrowbody freighters, of twelve types in commercial operation – exactly in line with the total count from last year’s analysis, due to the rapid retirement of older fleet types like the 727-200F and BAe 146. Of the 113 carriers, forty-one operate only one or two freighters. The chart below lists only those carriers operating at least three narrowbody freighters. At the end of March when this analysis was completed, narrowbody freighters make up about 38% of the total commercial jet freighter fleet, as widebody freighters still vastly outnumber narrowbody jet freighters. The narrowbody share of the total fleet is down slightly from last year’s analysis when narrowbodies made up about 39% of the total fleet. Widebody jet freighters have been in high demand thanks to a steady stream of 767 production and converted freighters going into express service. Can we expect any shift in the balance between widebody and narrowbody freighters by the time next year’s fleet analyses are published? Amazon Air’s evolving operation is the wild card in the balance. We know to expect ongoing deliveries of production 767-300Fs to FedEx and UPS, and that Amazon Air will add at least ten more 767 converted freighters over the next two years from ATSG’s leasing affiliate Cargo Aircraft Management. ATSG also secured plentiful feedstock for any additional 767F demand through the rights to twenty 767-300s coming out of passenger service with American Airlines. Known demand for 737 NG conversions is still in flux – primarily due to, again, Amazon Air. After the e-tail giant’s order with ATSG for the additional 767Fs, the industry was on the look-out for another deal with Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings to mirror the original launch of Amazon’s air network, with half of the first forty freighters leased from Atlas and the other half from ATSG. What we got instead was a surprise photo of a 737-800BCF in newly minted “Prime Air” livery , taken at the STAECO facility in Jinan, China, and posted to Twitter by Amazon’s Senior Vice President of Operations, Dave Clark. That aircraft (32882, ex-China Southern Airlines) has not yet been redelivered and so does not appear in this year’s narrowbody fleet analysis, but it will be joined by at least four and up to nineteen other 737-800Fs in Amazon’s US network, operated by Atlas’ Southern Air subsidiary. Sources close to the matter believe STAECO’s Jinan conversion line is tied up until at least 1Q2020 with GECAS conversions for Amazon. With that in mind, 2020’s analysis of narrowbody jet freighters should include several more 737 NG freighters than the thirteen currently operating. See also: Atlas’ Southern Air to operate 737-800BCFs for Amazon The current and future composition of the narrowbody freighter fleet will be a major subject of interest at Cargo Facts Asia in Shanghai, 15-17 April. In addition to a session devoted specifically to narrowbody passenger-to-freighter conversions, we will also have a presentation from Cargo Facts Consulting's Managing Director, Frederic Horst , on this year’s Twenty-Year Freighter Forecast. For more information about Cargo Facts Asia, or to register, go to CargoFactsAsia.com .

The narrowbody freighter fleet part I: 737 NG freighters take off

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