Boeing forecasts freighter fleet to grow to 4,010 units by 2045

Boeing forecasts that its global freighter fleet will grow 67% to 4,010 airplanes by 2045 from the current 2,395 aircraft. That’s nearly 16% higher than Airbus’ planned growth over the same 20-year time frame. [caption id="attachment_56863543" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Boeing expects more large widebody freighters to enter service by 2045 than Airbus (Photo/Boeing)[/caption] Boeing released its forecast Oct. 28 at TIACA’s Air Cargo Forum in Miami. Time-sensitive shipments for advanced manufacturing and artificial intelligence hardware, diversifying supply chains and increasing global e-commerce volumes will drive the growth, Boeing said in a release. The airframer added that dedicated freighters are expected to carry more than half of global air cargo traffic, with the rest going as belly cargo in passenger aircraft. “Boeing believes that air cargo demand will grow faster than trade,” Mike Stengel, an analyst and partner at AeroDynamic Advisory told Cargo Facts. “So that flows down into not only into a larger fleet in 2045 and slightly more deliveries, but their mix is also a little a little more heavily weighted toward the large widebodies in particular. So that's 777-X territory.” Boeing says large widebodies will account for 875 units, with mid-size widebodies at 915 units and narrowbodies at 1,140 units. Of those freight airframes, two-thirds will be converted passenger aircraft, with the rest new-production aircraft. Some 1,315 airframes will be replacements, with 1,615 new aircraft joining the fleets, it said. Last week at Cargo Facts Symposium, Airbus released its forecast, saying it expects the size of the freighter fleet to increase to 3,460 units by mid-century. The companies agree that North America and Asia will be the primary drivers of the growth, but Boeing’s forecast is marginally more bullish for the Asia-Pacific region. It said Asia will account for 1,035 aircraft, while Airbus said the number would be 850. For North America, Boeing expects 905 aircraft while Airbus forecasted 925 airframes. Asia Pacific fleet growth “The Asia Pacific fleet will more than double in size and account for more than one-third of all freighter demand,” Boeing said in its report. “This reflects the expansion of cross-border e-commerce traffic, geographic diversification of supply chains and growing demand within the Asia Pacific region.” It added that deliveries to North American carriers will be more focused on fleet modernization. Both Boeing and Airbus said the Asia-to-North America trade lane will grow the strongest, 3.3% and 3.8 percent, respectively, followed by routes between Asia and Europe. “When there are disruptions in trade and geopolitical tensions, shipping routes being blocked or detoured, air cargo is a nice way to circumvent those sort of constraints even though it's more expensive,” Stengel said. “I think that's part of Boeing’s argument on why air cargo could outpace overall trade and take share from other modes of shipping.” Third quarter earnings reported this week Airbus Airbus' adjusted earnings before interest and taxes were 1.8 billion euros ($2 billion), down 9% year over year. It also reported: Third-quarter revenue of $19.5 billion, down 2% from the corresponding period in 2025; Commercial aircraft order book of 9,310 airframes for the first nine months of the year, up from 8,665 airframes a year ago; Delivery of 547 commercial aircraft through the end of Q3: sixty-eight A220s, 428 A320 family aircraft and fifty-one widebodies, including thirteen A330s and thirty-eight A350s; and Commercial aircraft net orders of 1,105 aircraft after cancellations through Q3, compared to 514 during the corresponding timeframe in 2025. Boeing Boeing posted a third-quarter net loss of $116 million, compared to a loss of $5.3 billion a year ago. In addition, it reported: 161 delivered aircraft during the three-month period, up from 160 in the corresponding period last year. In the first nine months of the year, it delivered 475 aircraft; Total revenue of $24.2 billion, up 4% year over year; Commercial Airplanes revenue of $10.7 billion, 3% lower than last year; and Its orderbook across divisions stands at more than 6,300 aircraft. Editor’s note: All amounts have been converted to U.S. dollars.

Boeing forecasts freighter fleet to grow to 4,010 units by 2045

Airbus says it expects 3,460 freighters by mid-century

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